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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Two charts that share one or two broad-scale synoptic similarities:

image.thumb.png.933e4a893d32e86db4400b97fa9a78b6.pngimage.thumb.png.bb667d2c3e9b166a0996b7e00f1d92ba.png 

So just why so many folks are so downhearted remains a bit of a mystery...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Two charts that share one or two broad-scale synoptic similarities:

image.thumb.png.933e4a893d32e86db4400b97fa9a78b6.pngimage.thumb.png.bb667d2c3e9b166a0996b7e00f1d92ba.png 

So just why so many folks are so downhearted remains a bit of a mystery...

They also share some very important differences, most importantly around S Greenland.

When looking for Atlantic blocking to take hold we always need the ridge West and N of SW tip of Greenland to get Greenland high

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
27 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Cheers chaps @feb1991blizzard @s4lancia That’s my wobble straightened out, given myself a slap back in the room. Over to the ECM :santa-emoji:

Your wobbles won't end until tomorrow methinks, lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Yep, ECM 144 is flat.

287C129B-C692-4FA6-9520-7CB9C0CC391A.png

Aye, but not bad in Sussex, think of here, wet day potentially through the Cheshire Gap, 10 degrees too by looks of airstream

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

So UKMO the pick of the bunch at T144 can it be right over ECM and GFS . ECM first image . 

0187CE41-E400-4DF0-ACDD-51521C3A63DB.png

68E6B129-56F2-4BC4-A6B4-B9D50D2619DE.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Also should of added the UKMO has a stronger Artic high than the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

So UKMO the pick of the bunch at T144 can it be right over ECM and GFS . ECM first image . 

0187CE41-E400-4DF0-ACDD-51521C3A63DB.png

68E6B129-56F2-4BC4-A6B4-B9D50D2619DE.gif

I suspect they will all be different come tomorrow if the last week is anything to go by !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Arctic high has waned a bit today. Sorry, I don't buy it.

 

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Also should of added the UKMO has a stronger Artic high than the ECM

Yes and therein lies the difference. Until we get a clear idea of the level of downwelling of the SSW we won't know the effect on the Arctic profile and therefore the synoptic setup closer to the UK. Both ECM and GFS seem to be having trouble nailing the impact as they change from run to run. Berlin charts show this to some extent.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
38 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

Not panic worthy IMO taking them in roughly 50h steps from the 100h mark

gens_panel_zuc9.thumb.png.2285cf3f6b61e0b4220e07815179bbff.pnggens_panel_ghb4.thumb.png.218354efb4ce19f8a511542c47440d36.pnggens_panel_mfk3.thumb.png.2854f3a82d22679c3a82b7fae355d5dd.pnggens_panel_wap9.thumb.png.bc44e523730670be20a8331383222f16.pnggens_panel_ukg1.thumb.png.c67039e401cb90f8cced985bd71518ac.pnggens_panel_ijk4.thumb.png.2619b96469f8f719dd9603713fb0dd76.png 

gens_panel_sqf6.thumb.png.d2845f5f50fe67a29ac16d0fd177d8ec.png possible trends still on the table - lows gradually moving NW - SE, above average heights "wedges" Greenland, arctic or scandi and also could be section(s) of the PV shifted / positioned to our NE (should we get into a NE / E feed it could be pretty bitter)

also spotted this from the ensemble NAEFS 0z

naefs-0-0-384.thumb.png.7e20e91fa3d51455a3eea89f822524f4.pngnaefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.3409763e6533afac728d9257ed6b65e5.png  yes it is not the strongest of signals but it is at 384h and again a signal for above average heights towards Greenland 

GEM 12z ensembles rolling out

You can see the similarities between the strat now and the 16 day anomaly pressure in the last picture 

0CFF4CA7-BFB5-4BB4-881E-726AE8C90183.png

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Gfs leading the way at the moment with ecm following a day later. Bland and boring is the outlook but signs still there in FI that change to cold is very possible after mid month

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon..

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs leading the way at the moment with ecm following a day later. Bland and boring is the outlook but signs still there in FI that change to cold is very possible after mid month

Yep GFS is hero today, I’m sure ECM will catch up soon

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon..

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

Don't think it's deflated it's exactly what's being shown  I expect another few weeks of this type of weather  then mid month hopefully a response to the strat  we live in hope 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon..

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

I was like that this morning, hope you don't get the grief I did!

If we're being honest, things are looking poor and getting worse each day.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ECM doesn’t look great but at 216 the jet stream is lowering and 240 could have some pretty cold air in place, it’s what happens after that where the interest now sits

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