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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, swfc said:

Better run but look to the nw  yet again !!!

Im actually looking to the NE mate but yes the low heights to the NW are not going away any time soon...:-)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just to show that am not just posting about no cold being shown on the models i will defo admit the latest ukmo 12z has got my eye brow raised!!looks very interesting at t144 hours but on the other hand gfs looks competely different and much flatter!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Maybe nae snaw, but an odd -7C nighttime minimum  wouldnae come as a surprise?

image.thumb.png.b75cd66f0db5998aab74aa65a16ba3f2.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe nae snaw, but an odd -7C nighttime minimum  wouldnae come as a surprise?

image.thumb.png.b75cd66f0db5998aab74aa65a16ba3f2.png

 

 

It would have to be a clear high and as we can see from the current high, it is far from guaranteed.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Mr Fawlty Vortex, he go crazy. 

UN144-21 (1).gif

bbc1.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Here we go, time for a wedge please! Let’s see what manifests as we head to the low res  

206171CD-2229-4518-A1E1-4B7EFDDBEAB3.thumb.png.5447036aa1c72429471736fd6991e76b.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

All looks a bit too east....again. The displaced PV again too far east on the runs.  Deep cold to our east...will this blinking HP ever do one....it is an extreme in itself....its stubborness is somewhat interesting to watch.  Ah well nice to see snow at beach level in Greece etc.

 

 BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Here we go, time for a wedge please! Let’s see what manifests as we head to the low res  

206171CD-2229-4518-A1E1-4B7EFDDBEAB3.thumb.png.5447036aa1c72429471736fd6991e76b.png

PV seems stronger this run so not sure how quick any wedge would break through, time will tell I guess - let’s see if we get 3 runs in a row similar in FI

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Are we headed into sliderland here? Or is that anticyclone going to linger, like a bad smell?

image.thumb.png.0e6d9b58ed557a4cdbacd4fff954de68.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

PV seems stronger this run so not sure how quick any wedge would break through, time will tell I guess - let’s see if we get 3 runs in a row similar in FI

Very close

8641C983-C63A-496A-AE51-53878C2D1307.thumb.png.482265b087c91e469d0a9d484f65b16f.png

no cigar

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Nice looking ukmo this evening could lead to a few possibilities heading forward. Be nice to see where the ecm heads at 168 later on. As ever gonna ignore the gfs as it’s absolutely cannon fodder or so we are told....

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Very close

8641C983-C63A-496A-AE51-53878C2D1307.thumb.png.482265b087c91e469d0a9d484f65b16f.png

no cigar

Friday 18th was the last runs change, few days left to attempt some magic on the vortex - not looking good this time round!!

Also we’ve had around 5 GEFS going cold around the 14th , see how that goes. An up tick in those and I’ll ignore the Op for now!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we headed into sliderland here? Or is that anticyclone going to linger, like a bad smell?

image.thumb.png.0e6d9b58ed557a4cdbacd4fff954de68.png

I have an idea - let’s all push the UK and Ireland towards Scandinavia? 

They are always eating lobster while we munch on a mini tin of tuna.

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im actually looking to the NE mate but yes the low heights to the NW are not going away any time soon...:-)

Have you moved to the North East North West.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Friday again , expect some big ENS round then 

B7604236-5509-45D0-934C-19D788E60E64.png

And a stonking deep FI

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Got to laugh at the 12z, near misses and cold just circulating around the UK while most of Europe is plastered

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Disagree with the positivity over the UKMO chart, here it is compared to GFSp 00z (pretty similar)

UN144-21.GIFgfsnh-0-156.png

All that can happen from there is a flattening of the ridge as all the energy is going over the top between Iceland and Greenland, you can already see the next low to SW of Greenland.

Now if you wanted to be ultra optimistic and call for he pattern to be backed West from there and the Icelandic low (at 120) to blow up and phase further West with the Scandi trough with more amplification behind then we might be on to something but that is not what that UKMO chart shows unfortunately.

When the 168 comes out it will show the ridge flattening with LP near Iceland.

I almost posted on the GFSp 00z to explain how adjustments could give a transient snow event but figured the models were going the opposite way which GFS has since this morning pushing the pattern E not W and delaying the phasing of the Icelandic low

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

BIG FI here, a booooom chart coming 

C7257E53-1987-4F49-AFAA-F3D5C50A2D33.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, Mucka said:

Disagree with the positivity over the UKMO chart, here it is compared to GFSp 00z (pretty similar)

UN144-21.GIFgfsnh-0-156.png

All that can happen from there is a flattening of the ridge as all the energy is going over the top between Iceland and Greenland, you can already see the next low to SW of Greenland.

Now if you wanted to be ultra optimistic and call for he pattern to be backed West from there and the Icelandic low (at 120) to blow up and phase further West with the Scandi trough with more amplification behind then we might be on to something but that is not what that UKMO chart shows unfortunately.

When the 168 comes out it will show the ridge flattening with LP near Iceland

 

I agree. It sums up the model output today when some big up that day 6 ukmo chart. The bar is being set lower and lower. We need some Monday morning upgrades.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Is it me or is there a lot of purple on there and what looks like quite an organised pv, it was only a few days ago it was looking a lot more blocked and patchy than this.

mind you I’m a complete amateur so may be completely wrong

19ACDAE8-9D99-4EC8-894B-EC742F592AF7.png

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