The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Methuselah]

From stonker to stinker:  That's FI for you!

[bluearmy]

We still look to the period post the 20/1

all the modelling pulls the Atlantic high height anoms by day 9/10 so that mobile period looks assured - I recall saying that around ten days ago for the period beginning now but the ridging re established after a couple of suites .... be interesting to see if the same happens again.

Without any convincing upper ridge means showing before the end week two, we likely sit in a mobile pattern getting colder as that week progresses ...... two weeks takes us to the 20th .... the far off fi gfs charts will hopefully now show a solid sceuro trough on each run ......

wedges still more than possible but these aren’t likely to consistently show until ops get below day 6/7. 

We are in a delayed situation

we were expecting this to kick off post the 7th but Pacific forcing/patterns induced a two week push back - this was posted a week ago at least and Exeter also indicated this on their 30 dayer 

The quick response from the SSW could have filled the void but sadly for coldies, the establishment of the arctic high where it sits is unhelpful to us with the upstream pattern ........ so it’s a case of waiting ...... hopefully more ‘issues’ don’t crop up in the meantime ........  

[Duane S.]

52 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Still entirely possible the have a couple days of snow in the south but I think the ship for a proper freeze has sailed

Why do you? Serious question.

Is this the usual glass half empty sort of moribund post or are you going to produce some meat to the bone to back your thoughts that the SSW (only underway a few days ago) is not not going to produce for us. Or is it just a case of, screw all the science, I’m going by my, based on absolutely nothing other than my own gloomy predisposition, hunch? In which case, please don’t clutter up this thread.

 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

From stonker to stinker:  That's FI for you!

Amazing isn't it..I can't keep up with how busy it is today..there must be a colder zonal spell on the way?..I'm happy with the models, at last it looks like some action, something to talk about instead of stagnation with high pressure glued to southern uk..things are changing..and we have more brexit debate to look forward to from tomorrow!!!!

[BARRY]

1 hour ago, Leo97t said:

Still entirely possible the have a couple days of snow in the south but I think the ship for a proper freeze has sailed

Didn't snow down here last year until Feb 28th

 

[The Eagle]

*opens door*

*looks around* No change

Leaves

*closes door*

 

[Leo97t]

2 minutes ago, BARRY said:

Didn't snow down here last year until Feb 28th

 

Yes exactly it was a couple days of snow rather than a prolonged freeze. 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

*opens door*

*looks around* No change

Leaves

*closes door*

 

Have you even looked at the GEFS mean recently???..there is change on the way!!!..winter is coming

Edited January 6, 2019 by Frosty.

[Seasonality]

My thoughts are that some like to say "Oh it won't snow! Teh eksperts are rong and noe nuthing!", for the simple reason that it's playing the odds. Much of the UK tends towards mild, maritime weather so statements like above are right more often than not. There's no intelligence, insight or expertise applied though, just a sort of stopped clock type prediction success but 9 out of the 12 numbers are the same. There is though real expertise in accurately and scientifically forecasting deviations from the norm. 

[BARRY]

7 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes exactly it was a couple days of snow rather than a prolonged freeze. 

down here that's a prolonged freeze 

[tight isobar]

Maintaning the interest!!..

 

[Bristawl Si]

18 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes exactly it was a couple days of snow rather than a prolonged freeze. 

Actually end of Feb and March 2018 were colder than norm,with more snow than i've ever witnessed in March and a number of below-freezing days and i'm 57. In fact, in my lifetime it was the most severe End Feb/March for cold and snow in my neck of the woods by a long stretch.

Edited January 6, 2019 by Bristle boy

[jules216]

1 hour ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

 

 

And I think everyone also forgets that the MJO Phase 7-8-1 impacts for troughing in the Eastern US, and Phase 7 MJO impacts towards a -NAO, all have a lag, depending on the location of impact and the tropical signal. The MJO and NAO connection features a lag of 10 days for example. 

 

 

@Snowy HibboI have considered this chart as an indicator of NAO MJO LAG, which according to me shows only few days lag. On the other side it is only MJO phase 7 that produces goods for EU, the phase 8(strong amp. in EL Nino winters), almost like La Nina signature with poorly displaced Azores high, this is shocking anomaly if you are of cold perusal. I know that GSDM is not designed to fit ones agenda, but it will be interesting doing re-analysis of this winter why certain developments turned out differently than we expected them to, especially if we fail to reach deep -NAO in February as undoubtedly it had been the alfa omega of seasonal model forecasting, with potentially favourable synoptics - weak el nino, SSW split, active tropics, solar min. If this fails on -NAO then I do not know when in future one can have any confidence in background positive signals in future winters. 

[Duane S.]

 

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

My thoughts are that some like to say "Oh it won't snow! Teh eksperts are rong and noe nuthing!", for the simple reason that it's playing the odds. Much of the UK tends towards mild, maritime weather so statements like above are right more often than not. There's no intelligence, insight or expertise applied though, just a sort of stopped clock type prediction success but 9 out of the 12 numbers are the same. There is though real expertise in accurately and scientifically forecasting deviations from the norm. 

100% right. And exactly my point earlier. They will of course claim ‘victory’ more often than not on that basis.

A certain poster came in here very recently and went to great pains to point out how he knew he was going to be right back in early December (but nobody would listen to him boo hoo) when he ‘predicted’ we wouldn’t get anything of any note until at least later in January. He got a bit of back slapping from some who couldn’t see through it, but I remember he didn’t actually counter, at the time, why exactly we wouldn’t get a cold spell any earlier. Put up a few of the gloomier NWP charts at the time and (although, he apparently didn’t want any recognition for this great feat) has come back to claim his little victory. 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Maintaning the interest!!..

 

Not as good as the last 4/5 but still that handful  at around -8/9c. Hoping for something better on the 12zs

[ICE COLD]

35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We still look to the period post the 20/1

all the modelling pulls the Atlantic high height anoms by day 9/10 so that mobile period looks assured - I recall saying that around ten days ago for the period beginning now but the ridging re established after a couple of suites .... be interesting to see if the same happens again.

Without any convincing upper ridge means showing before the end week two, we likely sit in a mobile pattern getting colder as that week progresses ...... two weeks takes us to the 20th .... the far off fi gfs charts will hopefully now show a solid sceuro trough on each run ......

wedges still more than possible but these aren’t likely to consistently show until ops get below day 6/7. 

We are in a delayed situation

we were expecting this to kick off post the 7th but Pacific forcing/patterns induced a two week push back - this was posted a week ago at least and Exeter also indicated this on their 30 dayer 

The quick response from the SSW could have filled the void but sadly for coldies, the establishment of the arctic high where it sits is unhelpful to us with the upstream pattern ........ so it’s a case of waiting ...... hopefully more ‘issues’ don’t crop up in the meantime ........  

TBF Nick it’s been another fail of long range modelling again this winter . We have had promising signs for a good wintry spell of weather since November and we have seen zilch . Nothing really for the next 10 days at least . February will soon be knocking on the door it’s so annoying . The meto updates have been looking brilliant but wintry weather has never come closer . The EC 46 had stunning output for jan , again never got any closer . This is not a winters over post but would of been good to have a late December and January cold and snow for once and all the signs were looking so great from everyone . So it’s so disappointing to still not of had any wintry weather so far .

[karyo]

Very disheartening that even at a solar minimum we are looking at the first half of winter with a complete absence of wintry spells.

People are putting their hopes on the far reaches of the GFS FI. If that's not looking good, they move over to the GFS Parallel but then they forget about the parallel if the operational is better. lol

[Rocheydub]

Good grief. The moderators in this thread really have the patience of Jobe. 

 

Some of the gfuqhgfpjhing, sniping and downright childish responses to reasoned posts are more fit for kindergarten yards.

Back on thread, It has constantly been said that just after mid month is when we would see the response effecting our neighborhood from the SSW, The ECM only goes out to the 15th today, the GFS, shows what is possible after mid month.

 

I’m not saying the GFS is on the money, but please, can we all just keep the toys in the pram? It’s becoming quite tedious in here.

[Bristawl Si]

Meanwhile more of Europe, esp West and South West Europe forecast to plunge into the freezer, with more cyclonic development producing copious amounts of snow for some over next week or so. What odds that Majorca and East coast of Spain gets major snowfall before Southern England this Winter?

[Frosty.]

I really don't understand all the negativity, surely some cold zonality is better than all the predominantly  benign mildish dross coldies have endured so far this winter???..I'm seeing some increase in wintry potential in the outlook..surely something to celebrate?

Edited January 6, 2019 by Frosty.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Meanwhile more of Europe, esp West and South West Europe forecast to plunge into the freezer, with more cyclonic development producing copious amounts of snow for some over next week or so. What odds that Majorca and East coast of Spain gets major snowfall before Southern England this Winter?

It looks like a one day event but yes at least a wintry taste for them.  It was only a few days ago that the models were showing a half decent northerly to affect us but the pattern flattened somewhat so we end up missing out again.

[Penicuikblizzard]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

Very disheartening that even at a solar minimum we are looking at the first half of winter with a complete absence of wintry spells.

People are putting their hopes on the far reaches of the GFS FI. If that's not looking good, they move over to the GFS Parallel but then they forget about the parallel if the operational is better. lol

Cherry  picking charts rather than being realistic 

[Penicuikblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I really don't understand all the negativity, surely some cold zonality is better than all the predominantly  benign mildish dross coldies have endured so far this winter..I'm seeing some increase in wintry potential in the outlook..surely something to celebrate?

I agree with you a bit cold zonal ️  a bit of weather action rather than this boring high pressure and a wait for a easterly which lets face it may not happen 

[WhiteFox]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

TBF Nick it’s been another fail of long range modelling again this winter .

I applaud those who produce long range forecasts; they often put a lot of hard work into their posts, place their neck on the block and are far too often decapitated. As a result, some unfortunately take their efforts elsewhere.

It's worth differentiating between probabilities and exact outcomes. A split in the TPV looks probable, but not guaranteed (unless I've missed some information). If this does happen, then it increases the likelihood of cold air dropping south and affecting the UK. The SSW has not yet propagated down to the Troposhere and until (or even if) it does we cannot be sure of the effect it will have on our weather. At the moment, the models are starting to play around with various scenarios based on hugely complex interactions through multiple levels of the atmosphere, so is it any surprise we are seeing swings in the latter stages of output? 

Most LR forecasters I've read are based on the SSW impact. Until we see the effects we cannot judge accuracy and even if they are wrong, its a learning process based on a huge effort which is largely unrewarded and even criticised. 

Give people a break!

 

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

From stonker to stinker:  That's FI for you!

I think what will really happen is this. The high over the UK is like Juliet on the balcony waiting and waiting to link up with its Romeo, in this case a high pressure over Scandinavia. Just when it looks like its search as been all in vain, Romeo suddenly appears out of the blue, confounding all who could previously see no sign of it developing in the models. They meet up and make mad passionate winter for the next two months!

(NB  no...I have never actually read the original story or seen the play!!)