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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The 500 mb anomaly charts suggest that the upper air pattern in the 6-14 day time frame will be Atlantic based, generally Pm type air so not all that mild much of the time other than any warm sector in low pressure weather systems that will run across the Atlantic. Some sort of troughing into Europe for much of this time. The expectation of temporary ridging and somewhat deeper cold air to the rear of depressions. But I cannot see on them any signal for a spell let alone a period of deep cold. Not what most want to read but there is little point in pretending there is something in the two week period. Beyond that is outside my remit.

link as always below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I welcome this change..winter so far has been a complete bore fest dominated by anticyclonic gloom..can't wait for some cold zonality..I'm sure the scottish ski resorts can't either!!..bring it on!!..there is always potential for something truly arctic to pop up too!❄️

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
36 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

So how long do we think the effects of the SSW will go on for? What I'm trying to say is has it already started and that's why some places in Europe are seeing really cold and snowy extreme weather and is it possible we are just in the wrong place this time round? Does  it last for weeks or months after as I have no idea...  if it's weeks then I'm guessing we still have a great chance of something special later in the month but if it's getting near to the end of its peak come the end of the month then what then? Even if we get some colder weather at the end of the month or into February could it just be down to normal winter weather and nothing to do with the original SSW that I believe was happenig high up in the atmosphere during December..  Many Thanks.. ?

 

 

Hopefully the block lasts ages and we get another naughty summer too.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

I am beginning to think we have an analogy for this winter and its just two years ago.

Winter 2017 was dominated by mild anticyclonic types despite repeated medium range forecasts from the models including EC and Closea that HLB would develop and bring colder weather to the UK.

The MetO repeatedly forecast a change to colder weather during December 2016 only to drop the forecast in January when cold weather failed to materialize.

We didn't have a SSW that winter so I don't know why the Met and EC were so bullish with their cold predictions but they were wrong and the winter was a complete borefest throughout.

History rarely repeats itself in our climate so lets hope it doesn't this time!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Oh look don’t u just hate paper talk.

anyway iv gota stop been negative now I’m starting to sound like a doom merchant on here. 

Hoping for upgrades all round starting on the 12z please

413B7B43-2589-428D-BE9C-C85050F8AA54.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Eastern half of England still on for a little snaw, mid-week?

image.thumb.png.cc88c3834513cba87aa6d813c6463b1c.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

hmmmm....... transition period looking much flatter than last couple eps runs .... gets to same point in the end 

a little concerning in the transition period is the loss of low heights to our south/southeast .... they come towards the end of week 2 but would prefer not to see them go

geps/gefs/eps all on the same page by 20/21st

gefs spreads day 16 say

1) sceuro trough

2) west Canadian ridge

3) e Siberian vortex 

4) no low heights in iberia

fill in the gaps !!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
15 hours ago, CreweCold said:

 

After reading 9pages just now I've had more highs and lows than Renton in "trainspotting"!!!looks like the hoped for pattern change currently is still muted ete.i remember in 2013 GP said heights can bring colder weather even weak ones "which it did" when they were in the Iceland area.think BA has alluded to this also so any slidey lows given decent 850s may deliver without major blocking to north.It could bring or be a prelude to stronger blocking going into Feb but that's hopecasting on my part.id take the shallower heights set up for now because I'm sick of this resident high!!!also I have no idea why CC is on my link lol

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
46 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The 500 mb anomaly charts suggest that the upper air pattern in the 6-14 day time frame will be Atlantic based, generally Pm type air so not all that mild much of the time other than any warm sector in low pressure weather systems that will run across the Atlantic. Some sort of troughing into Europe for much of this time. The expectation of temporary ridging and somewhat deeper cold air to the rear of depressions. But I cannot see on them any signal for a spell let alone a period of deep cold. Not what most want to read but there is little point in pretending there is something in the two week period. Beyond that is outside my remit.

link as always below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Cheers John nice to see a down to earth summary. Keep posting.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Strat still indicative of sister sledges.

image.thumb.png.a8eb8b8b031402a73f40ea3f6dce40ea.pngimage.thumb.png.68b1bedbc7f8e55d223b00f23466dd2a.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Eastern half of England still on for a little snaw, mid-week?

image.thumb.png.cc88c3834513cba87aa6d813c6463b1c.png

Just had a look at Scarborough forecast and the answer is no don't due to north sea warming the air is a fat zero. Highs of 6C and lows of 3C. The other main issue is that it will be dry. Had a look at PIke Hill and that's colder but again forecast to be dry.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

all  i say looking  at the gfs  in late fantasy world is :cold::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Perhaps the most telling point for now is that we have another dry week coming up for many, save for the front crossing the north tomorrow.

All looking very Jan 2006/2017ish - plenty of high pressure, chilly at best with some frost but also a lot of nondescript blandness. At least I’ll be able to do more outdoor exercise without getting covered in mud...

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
26 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

I found this an interesting read in the hunt for cold 

https://huddsweathermandotcom.wordpress.com/2019/01/05/is-the-cold-coming/

Yes very Interesting 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

06z Certainly conducive for wedge development

37C84849-4D16-4ABF-BB57-C88978ED0128.thumb.png.48b27526e6d1cc5db1348a3217c4d141.png

winters not over yet after all :oldrofl::santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
12 minutes ago, tinybill said:

all  i say looking  at the gfs  in late fantasy world is :cold::cold:

well if it helps we had snow from the 28th Feb last year.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
7 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Life on the model forum...

8A8B714E-27BC-446B-808F-EE2A2D0065E6.thumb.jpeg.22448671f21872f4fa15211ecf700e9c.jpegf

That pattern looks quite amplified but taking the D16 mean I would expect it to flatten out or, at best, manifest itself as a toppler.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

gFS 6z splits the PV in fi and drops it on the UK.theme here even with weak heights.bank!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Please, can we just drop it? If you disagree that a particular post should be in here, either report it or PM one of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Hell, hello, hello. What have we ere then? Could that be the 'trigger low'?

image.thumb.png.d9e1f2a7998cadc7248aab8cbfa05bab.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

bit of consistency in fl from gfs let’s hope it’s got it nailed then.Asking a lot I know at that timeframe but you never know❄️

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