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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
16 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Looks like the METO long range is bang on the money at the moment.  Charts showing exactly what it says

Well in lala land they do. I would wait until they get into the reliable time frame T96 before saying they are correct. However before that plenty of mild uneventful crud to go through bar one hiccup Wednesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

As Ian Drury once sang, “reasons to be cheerful 1 2 3

1 have a look at the state of the pv on the chart. Not the first gfs fi charts to show a very disorganised pv.

2 ens trending down. 

3 strat warming well underway(will it fall right eventually?) more chance than having no warming at all. 

 

there are many more reasons  

585949CF-A4EF-4FA2-853C-D356637284AE.png

A62E5797-6D15-48F6-9F1F-37D91ABC2FD0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sadly Nick I agree with you.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Another reason why things may not be as straightforward as we expected?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, The PIT said:

Sadly Nick I agree with you.

Everyone knows I love cold and snow . But until there’s a clear concrete  sign of higher latitude blocking we’re going to be feeding off crumbs .

I really wish the GFS stopped at day ten !

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

The above post talks about mild high influence, well this mornings chart from ECM below at 144t highlights its worst feature and that's the anticyclone embedded in the mid -latitude jet. These charts just put my mind set in a deep winter blues mode, mainly based on past horrid winter experiences (above post ) We have to get out of this set up very soon. I know the longer term charts keep promising deep cold but its always jam tomorrow. Heck , I need to get out into the mountains quickly as its just the same mild scenario out here in Western Canada ( still waiting for the cold )  Picture below with the family on Jerico Beach is looking across English Bay towards North Vancouver and typical of Vancouver January weather, possibly worse than Northwest England.  Anyway, that's enough of my downbeat analysis and hope things take a turn for the better in our hunt for cold both here and back in Blighty.

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

49479653_1966940230022581_2706574624845463552_n.jpg

On the other side of the extreme I have been told that quite a number of travel routes have been closed in Salzburger Land this morning due to avalanches. The snow just keeps coming. This picture below from Rauris which is a relatively low resort. More blizzards expected in a couple of days as another Arctic blast moves into Central Euroland.

49439077_2226409677377443_4547814765199622144_o.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As Ian Drury once sang, “reasons to be cheerful 1 2 3

1 have a look at the state of the pv on the chart. Not the first gfs fi charts to show a very disorganised pv.

2 ens trending down. 

3 strat warming well underway(will it fall right eventually?) more chance than having no warming at all. 

 

there are many more reasons  

585949CF-A4EF-4FA2-853C-D356637284AE.png

A62E5797-6D15-48F6-9F1F-37D91ABC2FD0.png

Are you just going to ignore ECM? Is the GFS the reliable model today?

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Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

I see the usual morning hysterics  and sniping has started, if someone wishes to use one model that is surely their choice, after all this is the hunt for cold thread.

Edited by Blizzardof82
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Are you just going to ignore ECM? Is the GFS the reliable model today?

I haven’t and don’t ignore any output. If you can point me to the ecm output for the same t plus as I posted for the gfs that would be much appreciated  

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8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Are you just going to ignore ECM? Is the GFS the reliable model today?

No, we just take what the next 3-5 days is showing which from the 0z takes us to 85-100% verification to Wednesday and 50/50 on Thursday and Friday.. 

Which looks like this ...

Tuesday Nice.. Spot on

GFS                                                                        ECM

image.thumb.png.6939a4adf693360185c0fe101a948a82.pngimage.thumb.png.2d4cf6952c545a6d14b97fd5ea413111.png             

 

Wednesday Nice spot on..

image.thumb.png.79f22f4719d1a33ff1991ed9a0fcf7f6.pngimage.thumb.png.2e774bd388dbd01adea8c9b3f9a5b2d3.png   

 

Thursday Hang on... Whats going on GFS less cold than ECM

image.thumb.png.29d485ce0a5efd904cf14a2ac9855094.pngimage.thumb.png.a6d4dc89a1e02bdc53b6941fc091f06b.png 

 

Then we stop there... Why? Because look at the difference a day makes to a chart... 

 

 

image.png

image.png

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, IDO said:

Another reason why things may not be as straightforward as we expected?

Aye, there have been some epic forecast fails this Winter.

It is my belief that the SSW has overridden the tropical signals by flushing the PV down just as the tropics wanted to move heights up, effectively cancelling each other out.

We are now just waiting for the SSW to move the chess pieces more favourably.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
22 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Exactly Nick. A brief period of a more mobile Atlantic squashing any Amplification attempts is what should be expected for the time being upto day 10. There should be more significant movements to better FI blocking scenarios which should increasingly improve as we go through next week. I’m looking forward to it - next two weeks should be a fun time to model watch.

I respectfully refer you to this post from yesterday.

Again do some actually read what is expected?Eye candy cannot be the norm in the latter stages IF cold is not forecast until after that.

Simples....

As we move through this week we will receive.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Everyone knows I love cold and snow . But until there’s a clear concrete  sign of higher latitude blocking we’re going to be feeding off crumbs .

I really wish the GFS stopped at day ten !

I will change the record soon ...I promise , but I was saying this before Xmas, currently everything and has always been at finger tip reach and never getting close enough to grasp. Currently nothing has changed , now todays GFS does show some promise at 200+ but that's FI for sure . If I cast my mind back to before Xmas it was being said " come back in a few days " or " wait till next week" or " once Jan 15th gets into range " well they have been and gone and we are still waiting , just shows LRF's aren't worth the paper they are written on , whether that can be said each year or only when SSW is going on I don't know , but this winter they have been poor.

 

The good thing is this isn't the end of Feb- we have 3 weeks of Jan , 4 weeks of Feb and we have March 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
12 minutes ago, carinthian said:

On the other side of the extreme I have been told that quite a number of travel routes have been closed in Salzburger Land this morning due to avalanches. The snow just keeps coming. This picture below from Rauris which is a relatively low resort. More blizzards expected in a couple of days as another Arctic blast moves into Central Euroland.

49439077_2226409677377443_4547814765199622144_o.jpg

Lovely pic but.....

image.thumb.png.66d1b3aaf86d583abe01ab6752f59a01.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Usual despondency after the midnight runs I see,.Im sure things will look better after this afternoons runs.As someone pointed out yesterday the overnight runs always are a downgrade and the afternoon runs an upgrade.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I haven’t and don’t ignore any output. If you can point me to the ecm output for the same t plus as I posted for the gfs that would be much appreciated  

I put more faith in a day ten ECM chart than day sixteen GFS chart that's for sure.

People obviously don't like what I posted so carry on hyping today's GFS (despite slating it when it shows a poor outlook)

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

We all know that late March and even early April can hold snow and cold. 

Most people don't even want winter to continue at that time, sun is too strong so it melts even when cloudy on asphalt

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

What is frustrating me most is that we are in a worse position in 10 days than we are now! Look at the PV now compared to in a couple of weeks! Usually it would just be standard winter fare but the SSW has raised expectations and we are just not seeing anything come to fruition. 

89EF81CF-C1CA-4F54-9AE7-DFAC7D03E20D.png

34D3E149-F9F5-4EEC-8CBD-D5873AAF89E7.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
4 minutes ago, Purga said:

Lovely pic but.....

image.thumb.png.66d1b3aaf86d583abe01ab6752f59a01.png

My heart bleeds for you Purga ! Its less than 800miles from West Sussex to Salzburg but you might as well be a million miles away. Book a short flight from LGW and you will end up in a snow bonanza . Happy Days.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

What is frustrating me most is that we are in a worse position in 10 days Jan we are now! Look at the PV now compared to in a couple of weeks! Usually it would just be standard winter fare but the SSW has raised expectations and we are just not seeing anything come to fruition. 

89EF81CF-C1CA-4F54-9AE7-DFAC7D03E20D.png

34D3E149-F9F5-4EEC-8CBD-D5873AAF89E7.png

Yet!!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Most people don't even want winter to continue at that time, sun is too strong so it melts even when cloudy on asphalt

I'd be more than happy with a late March or April blizzard

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

In fairness though @Johnp this is the Hunt for cold thread... ?‍♂️ So come hell or high water people will hunt! Be it day 6 on the ECM or D15 on P16 of the 18z gfs. Nature of this place.

Edited by karlos1983
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