The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS op throws out one of those flatliners from the 18z GEFS suite, thought it might.

The 0z GFS is a stonker in FI. Really cold and snowy at times. 

[sorepaw1]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS op throws out one of those flatliners from the 18z GEFS suite, thought it might.

GFS seems to put out a trend from yesterday's 12z to this morning's 00z 

For a colder T240hr and beyond 

I think we all would like to see this under

T144.

Heavy thundery snow showers on a brisk NE Wind.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The 0z GFS is a stonker in FI. Really cold and snowy at times. 

Yes, things definitely looking up now in GEFS suite, next step, getting more eps members on board.

[londonblizzard]

0z GFS is maybe the best op run we've seen in the 300h onwards timeframe? Very good
But a long long way to go yet

Edited January 6, 2019 by londonblizzard

[northwestsnow]

Bit of bants.. months of pent up frustration..

Cmon EC you can do it !

 

 

Edited January 6, 2019 by northwestsnow

[sorepaw1]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The 0z GFS is a stonker in FI. Really cold and snowy at times. 

I really hope so crewe.

I'm suffering from LOSDD.

Lack of snow deficiency disorder. 

The symptoms are rage" red skin and nightmares. 

Other symptoms include posting 1947 charts on weather forums.

[Ali1977]

GFSP trying pretty hard to link arctic heights even by next Fri, pretty sure that won’t happen but different to the GFS and UKMO.

[snowangel32]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very cold GFS leading to a very good FI beyond it. Still to far in FI to think it may happen but signs of that very cold late Jan picking up as the PV finally looks like breaking.

18th now looks like the time all things start, but I still feel this may come forward a day or two. Good start to the day. 

I hope so the 18th was my prediction of fun and games a few days back you can really start to see the SSW going to town on the Vortex. It's FI but damm its a peach probably the best I have viewed this winter so far.

[snowangel32]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

GFSP trying pretty hard to link arctic heights even by next Fri, pretty sure that won’t happen but different to the GFS and UKMO.

It would only take a bit less energy than currently predicted in the greenland area for them to link. Then there is no possible way the cold can avoid us. Happy days.

[Roger J Smith]

Ground truth is also encouraging, there's a high slowly building in the polar region (a little to the Canadian side at this point, 1026 mbs), and the Pacific warmth has spread into almost all parts of North America cutting off the development of southward moving arctic air masses over here. There is still cold air around but it's just from stagnant highs of Pacific origin sitting over snow cover. It's a delicate game that has to play out, to get North America mild enough to make it statistically probable that cold anomalies will set up in Eurasia, but at the same time, not so mild that the usual four day transition of Great Lakes to UK warmth occurs (I found out by some research that almost every record high set in Toronto in the winter half year will guarantee a spike in the CET temperature within 4-5 days). It also appears from my investigation that cold in eastern NA and western Europe tends to be out of phase in early winter and in phase after about 20th of January (probably points to a decrease in wave length from December to February). Most of your epic cold Februaries are also very cold months for Toronto (1855 and 1895 were setting records at roughly the same times). 1947 was not quite the same, it had northeast flow but so strong that it advected mild air from the Labrador Sea into eastern Canada, a real singularity (something similar happened in 1969).

Well, as to the latest GFS run, that looks very encouraging, there is some bitterly cold air lurking by the end of that run and making some direct hits on Britain although you would hope for something deeper and more sustained eventually. That deep low around 16th could quite easily shift a bit south in which case it would be a blizzard situation, something to track anyway. But even as shown, it's essentially a wintry scenario especially towards the final stages. 

 

[Ali1977]

45 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, things definitely looking up now in GEFS suite, next step, getting more eps members on board.

Latest GEFS are stuck annoyingly!! As per the GFSP at T180

[sorepaw1]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest GEFS are stuck annoyingly!! As per the GFSP at T180

GFS online was the same at 04:47am .

Not sure why.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest GEFS are stuck annoyingly!! As per the GFSP at T180

Take a look on wetter, the control brews up a snow storm in deep FI and p7 and p8 are pretty tasty but bit of a mixed bag so far

Here is a link

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=240&run=0&lid=P08&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

It would only take a bit less energy than currently predicted in the greenland area for them to link. Then there is no possible way the cold can avoid us. Happy days.

Ha, ha. Don't say that!  The UK so often seems to have some anti cold sorcery so that it will 'avoid' beyond all odds. You'll jinx it

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Take a look on wetter, the control brews up a snow storm in deep FI and p7 and p8 are pretty tasty but bit of a mixed bag so far

Here is a link

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=240&run=0&lid=P08&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

Looks like a lot better set than the 00z, although harder to judge with the meteociel panel. Looks like back down to a -4/5c mean down south and -6c up north.

GFSP isn’t great in FI.

Edited January 6, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mucka]

P20 is an absolute brute, has to be right

[Mucka]

Ali GFS takes a long time to get going but,,

That would be interesting

 

[Ali1977]

850s for Cumbria look good , it looks like the 13th still has a chance of going very cold with 5/6 ENS going for it. It’s going to get cold in 7/8 days, how cold is still up in the air.

Edited January 6, 2019 by Ali1977

[Seasonality]

The shifting of the polar vortex and the resulting deep troughing into Europe looks very tasty on this ECM run. A good example of where you don't need hlb for cold. 

Edited January 6, 2019 by Seasonality

[Tom Quintavalle]

I was fortunate to have a half hour chat with local Weatherman Ian Currie, last night. Ian was of the opinion that we will see a pattern change probably just after mid-month. He wasn't of the opinion that we will see strong blocking over Greenland but that positive heights will finally transfer westwards, away from the U.K., with a strong ridge northwards and that a south-eastwards diving low will be the catalyst for ushering in an Arctic northerly. He doesn't yet see height rises over Scandinavia but that may well come, later on in the Winter.

I value Mr.Currie's views, as he has kept weather records for many years and also has been a long term observer, for the Met Office.

I'm not surprised that the 00z UKMO looks uninspiring as t144, only takes us to 12th January, so over to you ECM. But I'm liking the look of the way the ensembles are trending downwards.

Now, there's obviously no guarantee that Mr. Currie's views are necessarily correct but I'd thought I'd share that with you all.

Regards,

Tom. 

[JeffC]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

850s for Cumbria look good , it looks like the 13th still has a chance of going very cold with 5/6 ENS going for it. It’s going to get cold in 7/8 days, how cold is still up in the air.

To be fair that does depend where in Cumbria? If the mean Alston its a world away from Barrow or Whitehaven. Aware its 850 temps but on the ground there's massive differences. 

[carinthian]

10 hours ago, carinthian said:

Just thought I would post this winter chart below back from 1973. I remember working on these charts back in my Gatwick days and thinking what a frustrating winter that was. Similar to present set up synoptically. Those days we had limited model forecasts and SSW was not a feature in long range forecasting. That winter delivered brief northerly outbreaks but predominated by high pressure around the British Isles that kept the cold away from much of Britain which remained under a mild high influence for nearly 3 month. It can be a frustrating waiting for the cold when promising so much. I just hope for @Catacol sake , that the high in the wrong position eventually delivers as I do not wish him to take up Knitting next winter !

The above post talks about mild high influence, well this mornings chart from ECM below at 144t highlights its worst feature and that's the anticyclone embedded in the mid -latitude jet. These charts just put my mind set in a deep winter blues mode, mainly based on past horrid winter experiences (above post ) We have to get out of this set up very soon. I know the longer term charts keep promising deep cold but its always jam tomorrow. Heck , I need to get out into the mountains quickly as its just the same mild scenario out here in Western Canada ( still waiting for the cold )  Picture below with the family on Jerico Beach is looking across English Bay towards North Vancouver and typical of Vancouver January weather, possibly worse than Northwest England.  Anyway, that's enough of my downbeat analysis and hope things take a turn for the better in our hunt for cold both here and back in Blighty.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Nothing special in the gfs output with just NW - N’’ies. We need some HLB to deliver country wide snowfall and not just the favoured northern regions!

Edited January 6, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover

[jules216]

MJO Phase 7, split vortex, GWO phase 5-6 and this is the result. A Far cry from UKMO and ECMWF seasonal models from their initial cold updates. once again it proves that NAO is the wild card and has failed to go negative despite plenty of positive background signals. UK/IE is once again going to look at FEB/March for winter to arrive.like most recent climo

[Radiating Dendrite]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The above post talks about mild high influence, well this mornings chart from ECM below at 144t highlights its worst feature and that's the anticyclone embedded in the mid -latitude jet. These charts just put my mind set in a deep winter blues mode, mainly based on past horrid winter experiences (above post ) We have to get out of this set up very soon. I know the longer term charts keep promising deep cold but its always jam tomorrow. Heck , I need to get out into the mountains quickly as its just the same mild scenario out here in Western Canada ( still waiting for the cold )  Picture below with the family on Jerico Beach is looking across English Bay towards North Vancouver and typical of Vancouver January weather, possibly worse than Northwest England.  Anyway, that's enough of my downbeat analysis and hope things take a turn for the better in our hunt for cold both here and back in Blighty.

Isn't lows moving from NW to SE what we want in the mid term with pressure rising behind them?

Could be snowy for those in the north on the right side of the jet.