The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Methuselah]

34 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Time to quit the job, evaluate my life and go and live and work in the Alps.

I genuinely would if not married with 2 kids.

Boring output continues 

A lot of people thought by the 14th Jan we would be seeing some snowy charts. I’m sure by end of Jan there will be some fun and games and HLB will provide the goods.

Who’d like to sit and watch this accumulate. From Zell am Zee today

Do they get government grants, for installing roof insulation, over there?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It's looked increasingly likely since the start of the month that they were too fast to bring about the 'clean' HLB phase and that we will, in a sense, shave off a fair bit of the +ve GPH anomaly of Jan and plaster it onto Feb, with the mean trough for that month shunted further south and east as a result. I could live with that. I'd rather not see the best of the HLB delayed beyond 1st 10 days of Feb though; I've seen quite a number of mid-late Feb events these past two decades, but late Jan and early Feb have been strangely barren.

 

ECM 12z a reasonable fit to current anticipations, though not clear how much of a 'wedge' would develop out west of us D11-D12; the trough off Newfoundland is vigorous but stretched out - contrasting signals with respect to trough disruption taking place. Not convinced the trough north of us will be that broad and lacking in southward extension, mind. Just look at the one at +192 - that's a better reflection of the tropical input IMO.

I was thinking about jan’s anomoly being arwry with the onset of blocking to our nw not likely till around 20th onwards - however, the first ten days of jan will see a pretty strong mid Atlantic high anomoly edging into se Greenland at times so maybe the prediction on that chart isn’t so reliant on a strong high anomoly to our nw last third of the month ......

[Frosty.]

Dare I say I'm actually looking forward to some potential rather cold zonality in the mid / longer term with a chance of something arctic at times too..at last it looks like the high pressure which has been seemingly glued to southern uk for weeks and weeks won't hold on for much longer..I'm feeling positive about our chances of seeing snow appearing in the forecast from mid Jan onwards as the Gfs has shown today!❄❄

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Ramp said:

A bit harsh dissing the whirlwind Steve

He was ranked 2 in 1987, so I guess yeah maybe

But he never won the world championship even after being 14-8 up against hendry....

Anyway- ECM mean / OP & UKMO all alligned at 144 tonight, just the GFS op the odd one out -

[January Snowstorm]

Which of course doesn't mean the gfs is wrong until proven so!

[Ali1977]

I heard the CMA was the best model !!

[snowray]

If that low ends up any further east it will end up the other side of the Urals. In my opinion all of the models have been completely naff, they have all shown potential cold spells on and off, on and off, on and off, in fact ECM has probably been the worst at doing this. All they had to do was model HP over the UK and it would have been job done.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

If that low ends up any further east it will end up the other side of the Urals. In my opinion all of the models have been completely naff, they have all shown potential cold spells on and off, on and off, on and off, in fact ECM has probably been the worst at doing this. All they had to do was model HP over the UK and it would have been job done.

Very few runs have done anything but get the broad pattern right with the blocking over us ...... you remember the odd runs which went cold but they were in the vast minority .....we have just seen a couple days of lower uppers and we see a couple more later this week .....it’s not been bad imo 

[stodge]

Evening all

Coming into range of my birthday which is the true start of winter as we all know.

GFS 12Z OP at T+240:

GFS Parallel 12Z at the same time:

Here's the 12Z GFS Control at the same time:

 ECM 12Z OP at the same time:

To be honest, all variations on a theme. Oddly enough, we need the first attempt at building the ridge to fail - why? The ridge fails and this allows LP to move down through Scandinavia into central Europe and the Med finally lowering heights in this key area. This enables the HP to withdraw westward opening the gate for the trough to move SE into NW Europe and as the trough tilts negatively the possibility of a mid Atlantic ridge is increased so all the negative nonsense misses the point. 

The Scandinavian HP ship hasn't sailed but it will be a by-product of the cold zonality as the jet meanders south and increasingly frigid air moves into Scandinavia which will allow cold HP to become established in situ but that's a fair way off at this time (hinted at in GFS 12Z OP in far FI).

 

[DOdo]

All should be revealed this time next week where we are going with the Beast from the East,

[Day 10]

As we are all still waiting patiently for our snow fix, the year Britain froze is on more 4 plus 1 (just started) all about 2010 

[Guest]

Can somebody help? im looking for the hunt for cold thread but seemed to be trapped in the Jimmy White Snooker failure thread.

[karlos1983]

Snooker  more boring than Met Office talk which is actually weather related!! 

Meanwhile..... nice ECM Mean, jet digging further and further south! Cushty The tide be turning! ?

 

Edited January 5, 2019 by karlos1983

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, still a way to go for a pattern change with some places staying dry for three weeks by next weekend.! However this time next weekend the Atlantic kicks in but not the usual Atlantic , a very amplified pattern, so looking to Greenland for our weather by day ten...

[snowray]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Very few runs have done anything but get the broad pattern right with the blocking over us ...... you remember the odd runs which went cold but they were in the vast minority .....we have just seen a couple days of lower uppers and we see a couple more later this week .....it’s not been bad imo 

It's just so annoying Blue, I mean we were looking good for a half decent northerly 2 days ago, then the low ends up close to 1,000km to our east, this has been happening since I can remember the shifting of northerlies to our east. When cold air is blasting south into the Atlantic it never shifts even 200 miles west towards us, why is that?

Everywhere cold in Europe, apart from us.

[Mapantz]

I've hidden a bunch of useless posts. The clue is in the title of the thread!

There's also a large grey box with writing at the top of every page in this thread, it might be worth some of you taking the time to read it.

Thanks.

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

It's just so annoying Blue, I mean we were looking good for a half decent northerly 2 days ago, then the low ends up close to 1,000km to our east, this has been happening since I can remember the shifting of northerlies to our east. When cold air is blasting south into the Atlantic it never shifts even 200 miles west towards us, why is that?

Everywhere cold in Europe, apart from us.

a kick in the nads those charts are.

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

It's just so annoying Blue, I mean we were looking good for a half decent northerly 2 days ago, then the low ends up close to 1,000km to our east, this has been happening since I can remember the shifting of northerlies to our east. When cold air is blasting south into the Atlantic it never shifts even 200 miles west towards us, why is that?

Everywhere cold in Europe, apart from us.

The ridge gets flattened so the trough goes further east ...... likely the polar profile changes not allowing the ridge to gain as much traction as modelled in some ops earlier in the week 

[SMU]

Big swing in the icon 18z back to the more amplified pattern - the jet over the southern greenland at 120 is back to SE 

 

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ridge gets flattened so the trough goes further east ...... likely the polar profile changes not allowing the ridge to gain as much traction as modelled in some ops earlier in the week 

Yes I think it was the JMA.

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Big swing in the icon 18z back to the more amplified pattern - the jet over the southern greenland at 120 is back to SE 

 

Yes Indeed, looking better. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, beerandkebab said:

Fred.....with the current volatility do you think that model outputs could flip quickly giving a pattern more conducive to an easterly?....I understand that sudden stratospheric warming can have a myriad of effects, and not necessarily in our locales favour, but IIRC (and the memory is hazy) this time last year outputs weren't looking especially good initially, then they started to go 'haywire' with some outrageously bad and good solutions before settling on what became a memorable snow and cold spell

No mate, big easterly as in long term....not in the offing.  Strange SSW this, maybe the top team who suggest end of Jan into Feb are on the money. Imo not for most of this month....it doesn’t mean no cold or a shortlived surface Scandi HP.....just no lock out if that makes sense

BFTP

[bluearmy]

For me, the question here is are we just drifting into the cool zonal and then nw Euro trough beyond the 18th/20th or are we still expecting a change to crop up in the meantime as the reversal wave works down in about a weeks time .... will that transitional period (14/20th)  see more neg interference to the flow forcing it further south and seeing wedges of higher heights causing snowfall opportunities across the whole country rather than just the northern half ??. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We DO NOT want more rigding of this slug HP nearterm, we need the troughing NW/SE to be more acute nearterm.  Icon 18z much better than 12z.  We want the displaced PV and troughing to dig SSE

Re Steve M I believed he means more sharp ridiging nearterm...if it’s sharp I’m ok with that...no bulbous ridging

 

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Rambo]

26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No mate, big easterly as in long term....not in the offing.  Strange SSW this, maybe the top team who suggest end of Jan into Feb are on the money. Imo not for most of this month....it doesn’t mean no cold or a shortlived surface Scandi HP.....just no lock out if that makes sense

BFTP

So fingers crossed the weather as usual does the opposite of what you predict   (meant in jest of course)