The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Tim Bland]

Same story of cold and snow in all of Europe except UK

[Mike Poole]

ECM T 240, LOL

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So sorry for the duplicate posts im at work on my fone and its being silly!

fine for me of course, as I have the best phone!

hate this EC though way too flat

[The PIT]

All lala land as has been the story of the winter and if something turns up closer the main thrust so far has been to the east of us. I'm now giving up looking for cold and just hope there's sudden agreement of the total demise of the high in the reliable time frame.

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

fine for me of course, as I have the best phone!

hate this EC though way too flat

I remain optimistic with the different time frames touted for the onset of any very cold spell and the Met (however bad you may feel they are) mentioning about the cold rain/mild possibilities in the coming period ahead shorter term, we have to be patient as frustrating as it is seeing charts flattening. As others have already said and the EC46 for example showed the real interest lies after this model output period in late Jan- early feb. If we dont start seeing better forecasts in the next 10- 12 days then perhaps alarm bells will start ringing 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Kentspur

[swfc]

Pretty rank EC tbh.guess the wait goes on ete into mid late january.id actually take a snow shower in a passing northerly ATM but I'm being over optimistic there I think!!!

[The Beast From The East]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Flattened again but much like the GFS looks primed for day 10+

Looks ok but would prefer primed at day 5 ?❄❄❄❄❄❄

[bluearmy]

Another set of runs and no rabbits have appeared out of a hat ........

ukmo day 6 could be going somewhere but without either icon or ec sniffing the same solution I doubt it has any legs

so we continue the slow route into a cool/cold zonal transition period ......

[January Snowstorm]

So the slated gfs isn't trumped by the ecm! Gfs says cold zonal long term and ecm agrees. I personally think things will fall in our favour end of Jan and we'll get a decent week of cold and snow. Does that mean it's been a good winter? Not for me it's already been way milder than probably the last 5 winters 

[Johnp]

So at day 10 on the ecm, the PV seems to be regrouping and heading back towards Greenland.

Any one have a more positive take than that?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

45 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lovely 168 ECM

Finally, yes agree.  ECM is a very good run imo, on the money with increasing cold chances

 

FORGET THE FABLED long fetch EASTERLY it isn’t coming anytime soon

 

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

It's slow. It's painful. It's erratic. But the purple people-eater is on its way!

[A.J]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Finally, yes agree.  ECM is a very good run imo, on the money with increasing cold chances

 

FORGET THE FABLED long fetch EASTERLY it isn’t coming anytime soon

 

BFTP

Fred.....with the current volatility do you think that model outputs could flip quickly giving a pattern more conducive to an easterly?....I understand that sudden stratospheric warming can have a myriad of effects, and not necessarily in our locales favour, but IIRC (and the memory is hazy) this time last year outputs weren't looking especially good initially, then they started to go 'haywire' with some outrageously bad and good solutions before settling on what became a memorable snow and cold spell

[nick sussex]

The ECM is not earth shattering but at least it didn’t deliver the GFS rubbish !

The first hint of snow on the latter  is not till past day ten , the former at day 7.

The GFS brings a pile of shortwave energy east on a flat jet , the ECM splits that leaving some behind which develops into a deeper low near Newfoundland .

If we could squeeze more amplitude in that we could get some better height rises to the nw which could help angle the jet more se at day 8.

 

[bluearmy]

Ec monthly’s - best I can currently do which leaves feb and March pretty difficult to call for us .....January will need a decent last third of the month to our nw to be right 

  

Edited January 5, 2019 by bluearmy

[Spah1]

Time to quit the job, evaluate my life and go and live and work in the Alps.

I genuinely would if not married with 2 kids.

Boring output continues 

A lot of people thought by the 14th Jan we would be seeing some snowy charts. I’m sure by end of Jan there will be some fun and games and HLB will provide the goods.

Who’d like to sit and watch this accumulate. From Zell am Zee today

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec monthly’s - best I can currently do which leaves feb and March pretty difficult to call for us .....January will need a decent last third of the month to our nw to be right 

  

They're a stonker from what i can see, 3 months of blocking including the 'Aaron' March.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

some from the GEM 12z ensembles

 

 

ECM ENS 12z mean pressure anomaly charts

168h  192h  216h  240h  

 

 

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

UKMO carries on the theme of a total mild bore fest for the British Isles. Its even colder in North  Africa looking at the chart below. So far this winter for you guys is up there as one of the worse regarding lack of snow and frost ( as far ) Just like the bad ones of the early 70s and late 80s.  Help !

Just thought I would post this winter chart below back from 1973. I remember working on these charts back in my Gatwick days and thinking what a frustrating winter that was. Similar to present set up synoptically. Those days we had limited model forecasts and SSW was not a feature in long range forecasting. That winter delivered brief northerly outbreaks but predominated by high pressure around the British Isles that kept the cold away from much of Britain which remained under a mild high influence for nearly 3 month. It can be a frustrating waiting for the cold when promising so much. I just hope for @Catacol sake , that the high in the wrong position eventually delivers as I do not wish him to take up Knitting next winter !

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They're a stonker from what i can see, 3 months of blocking including the 'Aaron' March.

Could do with sight of Europe though ........risk of west based feb and March 

[phil nw.]

Now it's a bit quieter just a reminder that we have 2 other model discussion threads running for more relaxed and measured views of the charts.

Links

All objective sensible posts are welcome and i would welcome some company.

[markw2680]

Now that’s what I wana see more of!! Think everyone would be buried in snaw there not just more snow

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Now that’s what I wana see more of!! Think everyone would be buried in snaw there not just more snow

Uppers look marginal...

[Singularity]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec monthly’s - best I can currently do which leaves feb and March pretty difficult to call for us .....January will need a decent last third of the month to our nw to be right 

  

It's looked increasingly likely since the start of the month that they were too fast to bring about the 'clean' HLB phase and that we will, in a sense, shave off a fair bit of the +ve GPH anomaly of Jan and plaster it onto Feb, with the mean trough for that month shunted further south and east as a result. I could live with that. I'd rather not see the best of the HLB delayed beyond 1st 10 days of Feb though; I've seen quite a number of mid-late Feb events these past two decades, but late Jan and early Feb have been strangely barren.

 

ECM 12z a reasonable fit to current anticipations, though not clear how much of a 'wedge' would develop out west of us D11-D12; the trough off Newfoundland is vigorous but stretched out - contrasting signals with respect to trough disruption taking place. Not convinced the trough north of us will be that broad and lacking in southward extension, mind. Just look at the one at +192 - that's a better reflection of the tropical input IMO.

[Eastnorthwest]

ECM  is very good  with 3 northerly flows/blasts be for hopefully NW blocking  after with no sign of the Atlantic taking any real control at all 

A good taster before the real winter weather gets to these shores