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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
23 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

for god sake, how about some people actually discussing the model outputs rather than all the bum-licking/sniping/arguing that goes on in here...For so called 'grown up adults' posting in here, there are some disturbingly good impressions of 5 year olds 

BF9E3FD1-421A-4FB0-A484-D1EB4FB7788D.thumb.jpeg.013f1e37e844327921acaa4bacd440cf.jpeg

Bring on the snaw!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

All sorts off rubbish going on in this thread today!!and now one of your brilliant posts have been removed aswell now!!as if it couldnt get any worse!!gfs p looking okay up to 204 hours!!!very similar to the op run!

You forgot to say Amen!

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
5 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

 

12 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Mean while ive got an incredibly itchy bottom.... just about as on topic as many other posts in here tonight. jeez its hard work.

Sorry to hear that mate hope you get well soon.

I think MS is just sharing the latest folklore weather divination tool - I've heard of crinkling seaweed, dancing otters etc, but not that one - must be related to a black hole anomaly down south ... in other news ...

does anyone know of any verification stats or studies on modelling downwelling of SSW to trop - either globally or for a particular locale. I would have thought this to be an area of academic interest.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

for the sake of clarity on this point of order, the following is a 'hot off the press' quote from a met-office source...I won't divulge the identity of the source without permission

"No, UKMO absolutely don't ignore GFS. While primarily modifying (if needed) the operational UKMO-GM usually based on ECMWF comparison, GFS is always examined and assessed for further useful benchmarking, as for that matter are e.g. models from MeteoFrance, DWD-ICON, Canadian GEM and Japanese JMA. It not at all the case that Ops Centre ignore GFS (why!?) and whilst the model has various known bias frailties and idiosyncrasies/oddities, it has nonetheless served well as a global model (despite a general statistical underperformance versus ECMWF and UKMO-GM). It is especially useful for benchmarking at lead times <T+132, as well as for broadscale or hemispheric pattern matching (e.g. to ECMWF) at longer leads. It'll be interesting to see how its successor fares, once introduced operationally."

You don't have to reveal who the source is, you can tell who it is by the style of writing - i will give you a clue - he used to post on this forum.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

 

Hi Leon, I think boring as in the reliable time span , that's out to 7 days. As the chart below shows, the upper air temps show the warmest over Southern Britain, even Portugal is colder. Its just not working out for you guys at the moment.  I am just as frustrated as one . British winters in the main are crap and hard to hunt the cold that appears to promise and then fades away.

C

UW144-7.gif

that chart just takes the Tut

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
26 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

I know the KMA work with the UKMet https://www.wmolc.org/~GPC_Seoul/html/1_3.html

Thanks.

Yes, I've seen the long range charts on Gav's weather videos but not the daily runs. Managed to find a link but an awful dog's breakfast in presentation   format compared to what we are used to seeing.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
22 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The problem with this whole GFS vs METO vs ECM debate is that its not as simplistic as is stated on either side of the argument and yet again we see belittling of others views (not you to be fair).

GFS does verify slightly less well than some of the other models, but GFS gives us more data. So, the GFS opp might be a little bit less reliable the METO / ECM but with GFS we get too see a control run and 20 GEFS.

If people want to ignore the GFS so be it but its their loss and they shouldn't be disparaging about contrary views. I'm suspicious of ECM when it shows easterlies at range, but I don't ignore it.

 

 

5

In my opinion, the best way to view the GFS is to ignore the 6z and 18z outputs, stick to only the midnight and midday, save some charts to your laptop or desktop, say 120hrs, 168hrs and 240hrs for example and reanalyse them each day. Same goes for the GEFS ensembles which are more reliable in the main and useful for trend indications, around D6 to D10 timescales. If you get het up about "on the ground" specifics at such ranges, you're in the wrong game, upper air patterns and stratosphere (I lack plenty of knowledge hereabouts) are where all of us should be focussing our attention.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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6 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

for the sake of clarity on this point of order, the following is a 'hot off the press' quote from a met-office source...I won't divulge the identity of the source without permission

"No, UKMO absolutely don't ignore GFS. While primarily modifying (if needed) the operational UKMO-GM usually based on ECMWF comparison, GFS is always examined and assessed for further useful benchmarking, as for that matter are e.g. models from MeteoFrance, DWD-ICON, Canadian GEM and Japanese JMA. It not at all the case that Ops Centre ignore GFS (why!?) and whilst the model has various known bias frailties and idiosyncrasies/oddities, it has nonetheless served well as a global model (despite a general statistical underperformance versus ECMWF and UKMO-GM). It is especially useful for benchmarking at lead times <T+132, as well as for broadscale or hemispheric pattern matching (e.g. to ECMWF) at longer leads. It'll be interesting to see how its successor fares, once introduced operationally."

Ian F??

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

I’d be inclined to pay for attention to the GFSP than the GFS, given that the former is an upgraded version of the latter. That’s not to say that the GFS should be ignored altogether though. It could still be right in any given instance but you would expect the GFSP to perform better overall. Otherwise, the upgrade would have been a waste of time.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

East Anglia and the South East might still be in with a shout...Just!

image.thumb.png.a73e9bce495c51efcc4c72d4c88cd59a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Steve’s already covered the UKMO but it’s an intriguing run.  The fact it called the current pattern correct upstream suggests it’s having a good spell.

It was the first to pick the chunk of PV flattening the ridge . 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes. Hes slated it many times on twitter before.

 

 

 

Sorry Steve, I was casting nasturtiums at Liam not you!  fully agree with your analysis, but there are certain TV weather people who maybe have their own agenda at the mo.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
24 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

OH FI.....!!!!!!!!!!!!! :diablo:

uksnowrisk.png

h500slp.png

aaarrghh nothing, awful chart! for fun of course,  but agree good GFS again in deep FI, few GFS runs now suggested possible northerly around 15th

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So basically in a round about way Ian has said exactly the same thing-

They look at it, have a laugh & return to more important things.

It has bias frailties - ( what ive been highlighting ) 

The UKMO GM/ ECM are used for the main forecast ( what I said they use )

In a nutshell -The GFS is pidgeon holed with the other ' average ' performers- ICON / JMA etc - The midpack runners - The force Indias, The Tim Henmans, The Jimmy Whites...

Have a good night all.

just quoting the source Steve.......me?....I haven't got a scooby what it all means, most of my model watching these days is in playboy magazine 

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1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

just quoting the source Steve.......me?....I haven't got a scooby what it all means, most of my model watching these days is in playboy magazine 

Thats no problem-

Im just a bit more critical & non PC than Ian ??..

Anyway im off out -

Eyes down for the ECM

last 2 days 192 > 168 have reduced the zonal flow & been more amplified  will 144 follow 'ukmo' suit...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats no problem-

Im just a bit more critical & non PC than Ian ??..

Anyway im off out -

Eyes down for the ECM

last 2 days 192 > 168 have reduced the zonal flow & been more amplified  will 144 follow 'ukmo' suit...

So am I , but im going work

Fingers crossed for a good EC- think we are due one!!

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Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So basically in a round about way Ian has said exactly the same thing-

They look at it, have a laugh & return to more important things.

It has bias frailties - ( what ive been highlighting ) 

The UKMO GM/ ECM are used for the main forecast ( what I said they use )

In a nutshell -The GFS is pidgeon holed with the other ' average ' performers- ICON / JMA etc - The midpack runners - The 'force Indias', The Tim Henmans, The Jimmy Whites & so on...

Have a good night all..

Although Jimmy White had a touch of brilliance in him, let's hope the gfs can bring a bit of that magic to the party

Anyway, been checking the ensembles everyday for weeks now for my neck of the woods. Tonight's are the best so far. 

graphe3_1000___1.833_54.8518_ (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So basically in a round about way Ian has said exactly the same thing-

They look at it, have a laugh & return to more important things.

It has bias frailties - ( what ive been highlighting ) 

The UKMO GM/ ECM are used for the main forecast ( what I said they use )

In a nutshell -The GFS is pidgeon holed with the other ' average ' performers- ICON / JMA etc - The midpack runners - The 'force Indias', The Tim Henmans, The Jimmy Whites & so on...

Have a good night all..

Harsh, but reading between the lines of that Met Office source, very true.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So am I , but im going work

Fingers crossed for a good EC- think we are due one!!

Work sucks. 

I'm liking the look of the extended modelling. A polar NWly I will take with both hands, thank you very much! 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
32 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

for the sake of clarity on this point of order, the following is a 'hot off the press' quote from a met-office source...I won't divulge the identity of the source without permission

"No, UKMO absolutely don't ignore GFS. While primarily modifying (if needed) the operational UKMO-GM usually based on ECMWF comparison, GFS is always examined and assessed for further useful benchmarking, as for that matter are e.g. models from MeteoFrance, DWD-ICON, Canadian GEM and Japanese JMA. It not at all the case that Ops Centre ignore GFS (why!?) and whilst the model has various known bias frailties and idiosyncrasies/oddities, it has nonetheless served well as a global model (despite a general statistical underperformance versus ECMWF and UKMO-GM). It is especially useful for benchmarking at lead times <T+132, as well as for broadscale or hemispheric pattern matching (e.g. to ECMWF) at longer leads. It'll be interesting to see how its successor fares, once introduced operationally."

That sounds like Fergie-talk to me.

Edit - oops just catching up and seen the forum detectives had already worked that out!

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

I would err on the side of caution using El Nino composites for MJO plots, given ENSO neutral conditions over Pacific, otherwise, yes phase 8 not so great in a strong El Nino in that its impact on mid-latitude patterns in winter are opposite (not so good for cold) to that of La Nina in winter. Anyway, SSW likely to be the dominating driver IMO after mid month. 

Different phases of MJO and occurrence of -/+ NAO state,  Atlantic ridge and Scandi blocking 

nature07286-f3.2.thumb.jpg.2dda6cca1135aedf48f3f7c7aebade4b.jpg

as I have said before I am not overly knowledgeable when it comes to the MJO but here are some other charts 

Phase 7 January 

JanENMJOphase7all500mb.thumb.gif.e3fd6ae7ae9139f4c8e45d4d1da27122.gifJanuaryPhase7All500mb.thumb.gif.0079d42d2457b827e2510b378852855f.gif http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_9bbcf411b167ba537e629659eacd304a.pdf and nada which means weak or no signal regarding enso (el nino or la nina) 

nada_7_gen_ok.thumb.png.6c4aa0aa6e7304df60063ca4be133f2c.png

Phase 8 January 

JanENMJOphase8all500mb.thumb.gif.09d512c698996ff08f9b0319655dc8cc.gifJanuaryPhase8All500mb.thumb.gif.8a2691d575dd8e716985a1c48ad254ea.gif http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf and again (nada, weak or no el nino / la nina signal)

nada_8_gen_mid.thumb.png.5eebf739d103e099d771e2f6be879035.png majority of these look pretty good for increasing our chances of blocked and colder conditions (obviously other things apart from the MJO to factor in, strat events etc but still positive signs for us coldies)

my top-3.thumb.jpg.668c189eb43985c5485f2b1478b449d5.jpg from the 12z GEFS

gens-10-0-384.thumb.png.90f041fd31c8ea4849805ecaf08c3be4.pnggens-10-1-384.thumb.png.4db68a0a2bef79b3801e551d681f1db8.png

gens-14-1-384.thumb.png.91e2ba1b40a0e29c36b22ec8b0fb5a58.png

tempresult_osi4.thumb.gif.c8bada155e7302ca86d2e9ab5a0aaf13.giftempresult_joo5.thumb.gif.bb5cb13bcab009d54141972d9512c3eb.gif 

 

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