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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The difference in verification stats is not enough to say it’s 1/2 days behind though really is it in reality? It’s wishful thinking, the UKMO has hardly covered itself in glory this winter, nor have any of the models.

GFS trying to build that wedge again at 264, im finding it quite tiring we always seem to be looking at this range and then it goes pete tong at day 7-8 range, but alas the chase goes on.

I agree with that, as I've seldom found that the stats are really all that much use...IMO, by the time we've got out to Day 10, none of them very often present a useful picture...What's the useful difference - really - between, say, 38.9 and 36.8% correctness?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I would err on the side of caution using El Nino composites for MJO plots, given ENSO neutral conditions over Pacific, otherwise, yes phase 8 not so great in a strong El Nino in that its impact on mid-latitude patterns in winter are opposite (not so good for cold) to that of La Nina in winter. Anyway, SSW likely to be the dominating driver IMO after mid month. 

Different phases of MJO and occurrence of -/+ NAO state,  Atlantic ridge and Scandi blocking 

nature07286-f3.2.thumb.jpg.2dda6cca1135aedf48f3f7c7aebade4b.jpg

Brilliant graphic Nick - never seen that one before. Saved.

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Just to add to the above post-

As has been written countless times every year - NH statistics are a poor barometer of how well a model performs for the UK

The old 'NCEP' regions used to show how woeful the GFS was 'regionally'

The NH figure is somewhat 'evened up' across the piste due to areas like the pacific being easy to forecast, so across that whole area GFS catches up because its 'easy'

However where its model eastward bias shows - in the atlantic / around the southern tip of Greenland / Scandi - thats where the difference shows V the Euros

Thats why the Metoffice ignore the GFS.

Based on the last 10-15 years model watching if you looking at an amplified UKMO in the atlantic at day 6 & a flat GFS the outcome will be heavily weighted to the UKMo, however not 100% - usually about 70-80% to the UKMO as it seems to have a very slight amplification bias ...

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well obviously GFS ends well, very well in fact..

BUT, the more pleasing aspect to this is when you compare UKMO/GFS at 144 UKMO actually looks more desirable from where i'm sat..

Also, i'm not going to go OTT on one GFS fi but when you add 6Z to the mix it would appear GFS is now sniffing out a way out of the flat profile in the Atlantic sector..(which has been an absolute pain in the backside for coldies since November)..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
31 minutes ago, carinthian said:

 

Hi Leon, I think boring as in the reliable time span , that's out to 7 days. As the chart below shows, the upper air temps show the warmest over Southern Britain, even Portugal is colder. Its just not working out for you guys at the moment.  I am just as frustrated as one . British winters in the main are crap and hard to hunt the cold that appears to promise and then fades away.

C

UW144-7.gif

Teasingly close to SE which on frame before was under the cold air. The UKMO would go on to a deep northerly plunge after t144 imo....so bearable if on the right road.

GFS 12z, I like that it even has my ‘transient’ Scandi HP/ wedge from 20th .  I’m happy with the momentum building here with very snowy chances afoot.

One concern is that the slug is hanging around.....but it may be the way before arctic maritime plunge......landing 13-16th Jan.

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Anywho, whatever one's preferred model, one thing is for certain: overall, the trends are firmly headed in the right direction!:cold:

image.thumb.png.b38de6736078bea8042263999f7fb3a9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Brilliant graphic Nick - never seen that one before. Saved.

Should have included a link where that image is from (below), Christophe Cassou has written some good papers re: MJO, this one on the interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation: 

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07286

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

@Steve Murr  I back the gfs because my years on this forum  (and I go back to snow watch) tells me the gfs is every bit as good as the other top two. I don't believe in slating a model to be popular rather what I see 

I also believe the gfs precipitation charts can be exceptionally good. It's my opinion not saying I'm any more right than you

 

Its not factually correct to say that the GFS is “every bit as good as the other top two” though is it? It’s verification stats would say otherwise. Doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a role to play.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

That’s a better looking mean than the op on the 11th.

BEC4E44D-7725-4562-9A75-A23BDA7B2840.png

Some belters by next weekend. Still plenty chance for big upgrades in my eyes by mid Jan

C9E118AC-1E8C-48D3-A1F3-F3B64D49E100.png

230E6B37-F81E-40F7-BF0D-B90A7CB3841A.png

FB101265-8929-4B4D-8D97-7AE16EF59908.png

817533CB-BC11-405C-8481-57F269368D2E.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Anywho, whatever one's preferred model, one thing is for certain: overall, the trends are firmly headed in the right direction!

image.thumb.png.b38de6736078bea8042263999f7fb3a9.png

Just need this to lock in Pete.....then its make sure you are on the cheapest energy deal

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff
15 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

@Steve Murr  I back the gfs because my years on this forum  (and I go back to snow watch) tells me the gfs is every bit as good as the other top two. I don't believe in slating a model to be popular rather what I see 

I also believe the gfs precipitation charts can be exceptionally good. It's my opinion not saying I'm any more right than you

 

But you have to agree, when Steve says the gfs will do this or that because of its bias, more often than not he is usually correct

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
29 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

@Steve Murr  I back the gfs because my years on this forum  (and I go back to snow watch) tells me the gfs is every bit as good as the other top two. I don't believe in slating a model to be popular rather what I see 

I also believe the gfs precipitation charts can be exceptionally good. It's my opinion not saying I'm any more right than you

 

Am I reading that right ? You think the gfs precipitation charts can be exceptionally good ? OMG they are terrible . 

 

 

 

Edited by Team Jo
No need for Aquatic Mammaries, thnx.
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
4 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

But you have to agree, when Steve says the gfs will do this or that because of its bias, more often than not he is usually correct

I don't agree. If you go back 3 weeks ago the ukmo and ecm were sniffing changes in early Jan 

The gfs 3 weeks ago was saying the high would remain in situ. What has happened? The high has and remains in situ. I don't argue with Steves point. I have my opinion and he can have his.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Oh look our all friend the high is really moving away is it. Its' now pushed yet again the cold plunge further east and it's got a few more days to nudge it even further. GFS only descent stuff is in Lala land. Wouldn't so bad if this cloud wasn't around. Hopefully the ECM will come up with something of interest which isn't in lala land. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
26 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

What surprised me was the Korean KMA 12z featuring alongside the ECM in the later time frames. KMA is not a model we ever see as far as I know.

I know the KMA work with the UKMet https://www.wmolc.org/~GPC_Seoul/html/1_3.html

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

GFS one of the mildest compared to its ensembles at day 7/8. Poss more upgrades to come in the shorter term?

graphe3_0000_294_5___.gif

Image above for eastern North Yorkshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

GFS one of the mildest compared to its ensembles at day 7/8. Poss more upgrades to come in the shorter term?

graphe3_0000_294_5___.gif

Image above for eastern North Yorkshire.

An interesting graph!

Looks like a good number bring the pm air into play much quicker than the op- even the op does eventually push the PM air through and the attendant Atlantic height rises thereafter..

 

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