The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at those MJO forecasts, I see it races through the favourable 7 into the much less favourable 8 where it looks to die a death (not a great place to stop re euro heights) .......phases 1 thru 3 are good for euro troughing ........ but it looks like it will miss those out ......so those pinning their hopes on the MJO better hope that the signal is being interfered with going forward 

I would err on the side of caution using El Nino composites for MJO plots, given ENSO neutral conditions over Pacific, otherwise, yes phase 8 not so great in a strong El Nino in that its impact on mid-latitude patterns in winter are opposite (not so good for cold) to that of La Nina in winter. Anyway, SSW likely to be the dominating driver IMO after mid month. 

Different phases of MJO and occurrence of -/+ NAO state,  Atlantic ridge and Scandi blocking 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Nick F

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

A bit of a downgrade this morning from the UKMO. Seems to advance the milder Atlantic air rather quicker than yesterdays 12z run and also shown on this mornings fax charts. In the short to medium term also backed up by GFS/ECM. All very frustrating for you lot as Mid-Winter approaches. Feel sad and looking for crumbs of comfort !

 C

UKMO carries on the theme of a total mild bore fest for the British Isles. Its even colder in North  Africa looking at the chart below. So far this winter for you guys is up there as one of the worse regarding lack of snow and frost ( as far ) Just like the bad ones of the early 70s and late 80s.  Help !

[Jason M]

Can understand some of the frustration but obviously nothing anyone can do about it. 

ICON and GFS have now largely removed the snow risk in the SE this week (still just about possible though). Hopefully we will start to see a more coherent signal for a northerly around the 15th over the next couple of days. Probably would be brief but at least it would help prevent any more QFRs (quick forum response).

I noted Shaftesbury's message which was sad to see. Abuse is still abuse (and cowardly) even if its via PM and I hope the mods will get the banning stick out as I for one don't want people like that in our community!

Edited January 5, 2019 by Jason M
amend

[Tim Bland]

@Steve Murr if you press and hold the chart you are viewing you can select ‘save image’  it will drop it straight into your photos, then we can see the model and time frame etc you are quoting 

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

UKMO carries on the theme of a total mild bore fest for the British Isles. Its even colder in North  Africa looking at the chart below. So far this winter for you guys is up there as one of the worse regarding lack of snow and frost ( so far ) Just like the bad ones of the early 70s and late 80s.  Help !

 

[Leon1]

I actually don't think the UKMO is too boring really. To my untrained eye it looks like arctic heights are linking through to Greenland which would, if we ran another few days, could link to the high in the Atlantic leading for northerly winds for us. Please don't hate me if I'm interpreting it all wrong but I'm still new to this.

[Weathizard]

Why would the GFS be 1/2 days behind the UKM? The UKM has left a lot to be desired just lately IMO with its poor performance.

GFS 12z a bore fest out to day 9, hopefully FI is interesting.

[Mike Poole]

With the response to the SSW being this Arctic high, it looks like the whole NH profile might get sliced in two at some point soon!  UKMO suggested a fairly promising output at the end of its run.   We don't want it to happen as per the GEM though, here T240:

The axis of any trop vortex split is going to be important here.  

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Why would the GFS be 1/2 days behind the UKM? The UKM has left a lot to be desired just lately IMO with its poor performance.

GFS 12z a bore fest out to day 9, hopefully FI is interesting.

poor resolution.

Thats why its 5th in the rankings.

To be fair, if you follow the thread you should really know that by now.

[January Snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Why would the GFS be 1/2 days behind the UKM? The UKM has left a lot to be desired just lately IMO with its poor performance.

GFS 12z a bore fest out to day 9, hopefully FI is interesting.

I would agree

Let's face they all have their moments but in general at 144hrs the UKMO is no better than gfs

I thought it was the ecm that was having a poor winter? 

Edited January 5, 2019 by January Snowstorm

[carinthian]

3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

 

 

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

I actually don't think the UKMO is too boring really. To my untrained eye it looks like arctic heights are linking through to Greenland which would, if we ran another few days, could link to the high in the Atlantic leading for northerly winds for us. Please don't hate me if I'm interpreting it all wrong but I'm still new to this.

Hi Leon, I think boring as in the reliable time span , that's out to 7 days. As the chart below shows, the upper air temps show the warmest over Southern Britain, even Portugal is colder. Its just not working out for you guys at the moment.  I am just as frustrated as one . British winters in the main are crap and hard to hunt the cold that appears to promise and then fades away.

C

[lamppost watcher]

@Shaftesbury Snow

The "respected forecasters" you mention are what makes this forum worth coming on here for. This is the hunt for cold thread, and hunt it they do in earnest. Nobody comes on here expecting guarantees, as far as I know, but for an insight into what the possibilities are and where the route to cold may be.

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

poor resolution.

Thats why its 5th in the rankings.

To be fair, if you follow the thread you should really know that by now.

The difference in verification stats is not enough to say it’s 1/2 days behind though really is it in reality? It’s wishful thinking, the UKMO has hardly covered itself in glory this winter, nor have any of the models.

GFS trying to build that wedge again at 264, im finding it quite tiring we always seem to be looking at this range and then it goes pete tong at day 7-8 range, but alas the chase goes on.

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would agree

Let's face they all have their moments but in general at 144hrs the UKMO is no better than gfs

I thought it was the ecm that was having a poor winter? 

I dont understand why you post a comment like this when you already know the answer?

If at the start of the football season you was given a freebet of £100 to back the winner or even the top 2 would you bet on spurs or Arsenal?

No ideally man city or liverpool- why- because across the 'means' they will win more often than not-

why back the outsider when you dont have to?

[Ali1977]

GFS seems to start shattering the PV  at day 11 out of nowhere , could be a decent FI again!! Shame it’s FI

 

edit - yeah not bad

Edited January 5, 2019 by Ali1977

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

I kept a Europe link from long ago. Still seems to be working but way behind with November as last verification. The 12z ECM has slightly better stats than the 00Z .

https://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z#

Thanks - really interesting to see that in the medium range for the top 2 models (ECM and UKMO) the 12z has better stats than the 00z. (96 - 144 for UKMO and 96 to 192 for ECM). Flipping through the whole of 2018 it seems to be a general theme, though in some months the 2 runs are very nearly identical. 

[SMU]

Just now, Weathizard said:

The difference in verification stats is not enough to say it’s 1/2 days behind though really is it in reality? It’s wishful thinking, the UKMO has hardly covered itself in glory this winter, nor have any of the models.

GFS trying to build that wedge again at 264, im finding it quite tiring we always seem to be looking at this range and then it goes pete tong at day 7-8 range, but alas the chase goes on.

Iike I said if you follow the thread the  GFS fails more often than not-

This current cold snap is a prime example...

[Ice Day]

Looking lovely at 324.  Sometime around 18-20 January looking like the next 'window of opportunity'

[feb1991blizzard]

All aboard the no high latitude blocking possible train!!!

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Thanks - really interesting to see that in the medium range for the top 2 models (ECM and UKMO) the 12z has better stats than the 00z. (96 - 144 for UKMO and 96 to 192 for ECM). Flipping through the whole of 2018 it seems to be a general theme, though in some months the 2 runs are very nearly identical. 

What surprised me was the Korean KMA 12z featuring alongside the ECM in the later time frames. KMA is not a model we ever see as far as I know.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All aboard the no high latitude blocking possible train!!!

Decent although all for fun, more support from the GFS would be great. If we can hit FI -6c mean in London that would be a fine upgrade. (850s obvs)

Edited January 5, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ice Day]

What's nice to see is, although we are out in FI, there is decent consistency between the 6z and 12z.  This at 348

  

Let's see if we can get a 2010 style countdown to landing this...... not that I'm holding my breath though!

 

[January Snowstorm]

@Steve Murr  I back the gfs because my years on this forum  (and I go back to snow watch) tells me the gfs is every bit as good as the other top two. I don't believe in slating a model to be popular rather what I see 

I also believe the gfs precipitation charts can be exceptionally good. It's my opinion not saying I'm any more right than you

 

[Mike Poole]

Not a bad place for the GFS to end on, T384:

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Decent although all for fun, more support from the GFS would be great. If we can hit FI -6c mean in London that would be a fine upgrade. (850s obvs)

 

 

Within 10-15 more runs, you will get your wish, by next weekend you will see -8c on the mean chart.