The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Weathizard]

Much improved GFS earlier and at 192

[northwestsnow]

GFS showing some light snow showers into the SE @126..

[Singularity]

Hmm - the plot thickens! Not only have GFS and UKMO swung back to a better cut-back of the jet D5-6 (this part not that surprising), but GFS 12z is keeping the Atlantic ridge a lot more amplified as of +180 hours with signs of a tropospheric vortex split trying to happen much sooner than anticipated. 

This may be linked to the western vortex at 30 hPa being further west on this run with more of a 'ridge' NW of the UK;

 

 

The trouble with this is, I'm not sure we can find enough amplification from the MJO + GWO combination soon enough to sustain a split from an attempt next weekend. Not entirely out of the question though - we know how crazy the models have been biased too flat lately!

[jam]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, no frosts round our locale but very very cold...

Im happy with UKMO- its a cold run and im even happier to see that all important trough kicking those horrid Iberian heights into touch..

Classic Genoa low there should stop things sinking 

[ITSY]

Lesser-spotted at the moment but a very respectable end to the GEM 12z. Alaskan, Altantic and Arctic heights all threatening to join up with the Eurasian remnants of the PV looking to dive SE. Pretty much in line with this morning's GFS 06z

[ITSY]

Meteociel not updating but a broadly similar pattern emerging by week 2 - heights building north out of the NW Atlantic, as well as into the high arctic via Alaska. Building blocks at this point, question for later frames is whether they will link up
 

 

[carinthian]

40 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Further to the above post, UKMO does indeed provide a surprise for the SE with a cyclonic NEly flow due to much lower heights across Euroland on the run. At least this will help to stop the high sinking. Another variation added to the mix. See where ECM goes this evening.

C

Looks like plenty of more snow to come in Austria next week looking at the UKMO  144t chart.Yesterdays  pictures below from Salzburger Land. First one in from the resort of Filzmoss at 1000m and the second one of the Police Station in Obertauern at 1750m. Some exceptional snowfalls in the region and much more to come !

C

Edited January 4, 2019 by carinthian

[Singularity]

 

Wider split at 30 hPa maintained as of D12. A good trend to have .

[ICE COLD]

A recurring theme in The later stages . 

[Summer Sun]

41 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

is it just me or is GFS frozen at t+84hrs ?

meteociel have put the following notice up

Downloading from NOAA server still quite slow.

[IDO]

Again, repeating the theme of toppler on this run in FI:

[Methuselah]

Don't panic Mr Mainwearing...it's model bias!

  

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again, repeating the theme of toppler on this run in FI:

Yup, lets forget the cold before that and home in on one chart in FI..

btw, it ends like this..

 

[lorenzo]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again, repeating the theme of toppler on this run in FI:

Good job this isn't the Hunt for Toppler thread then...

[Eastnorthwest]

21 hours ago, snowray said:

JMA even worse than ECM.

 

Think I will stick with the form horse.... ICON!

 

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, lets forget the cold before that and home in on one chart in FI..

btw, it ends like this..

 

Sorry, a bit frustrated, total snow depth at the end of the run:

I do appreciate that some like just cold uppers, but my POV is more snow orientated!

[phil nw.]

For any newer members in the later frames we can see how the gradual down welling is undermining the trop.vortex.

Those lighter coloured blues over the pole indicate the reversal is hitting the centre of PV at 500hPa.

The PV gradually being split into smaller chunks. 

What we are hoping for is a wide split to our north making room for those heights over the  the pole to nose through the gap around the Greenland area. 

Recent ens are quite promising from days 10-15.

In the meantime we look like seeing a decent holding pattern with quite a cold week to come next week. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Sorry, a bit frustrated, total snow depth at the end of the run:

I do appreciate that some like just cold uppers, but my POV is more snow orientated!

Guess it might be time to relocate to NW Scotland then

Its one GFS op and its wayyyy into FI..

It might be right of course .. we'll see..

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

For any newer members in the later frames we can see how the gradual down welling is undermining the trop.vortex.

Those lighter coloured blues over the pole indicate the reversal is hitting the centre of PV at 500hPa.

The PV gradually being split into smaller chunks. 

What we are hoping for is a wide split to our north making room for those heights over the  the pole to nose through the gap around the Greenland area. 

Recent ens are quite promising from days 10-15.

In the meantime we look like seeing a decent holding pattern with quite a cold week to come next week. 

A good summing up there Phil NW and the GFS several cold northerly outbreaks before the cold spell mentioned by the met office is even due to start. I,ll take that for starters thank you very much.

[Eastnorthwest]

We're still about 10 days away from the tropospheric showing being effected from the stratt warming so from T 120 they will continue to alter and tease us all ,but we are now seeing hints of northerly s coming round the hP now which is a great improve ment on about 4/5 days ago ,the models always struggle to keep consistent with colder weather coming but it is coming and it might be very brutal come 2 weeks time if the warming causes the weather we want,keep the faith everyone

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Good job this isn't the Hunt for Toppler thread then...

Its a good job it isn't the hunt for tropical air from long draw SW bartlett type setups thread!

Else Paul would have a serious problem as Knocker and IDO would be the only ones in it since Ian Brown has gone.

Edited January 4, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Ooh now that was a near miss weather-wise for us in SW UK, look at those dark blues across central & especially eastern UK next Wed, they miss us and then it actually looks like turning somewhat milder (or less cold) by next Fri for a time 

[nick sussex]

56 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Quite a change and as @nick sussex said earlier it’s pretty rare to see this back track once the first hurdle fails!

back in the game short term 

Yes it’s as rare as one of my many diets that actually got started !

Theres a bit more jet cut back in both the GFS and UKMO . We can’t expect a miracle turn around though . The high will sink but it’s trying to lessen that as much as possible and keep those low heights to the south .

The early improvements are helped by the weaker shortwave . The models have had a real problem with that , and have been all over the place with how deep it is .

Edited January 4, 2019 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

37 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like plenty of more snow to come in Austria next week looking at the UKMO  144t chart.Yesterdays  pictures below from Salzburger Land. First one in from the resort of Filzmoss at 1000m and the second one of the Police Station in Obertauern at 1750m. Some exceptional snowfalls in the region and much more to come !

C

C

will that thaw time for next winter???? Thanks for ‘rub in for Uk’ btw

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it’s as rare as one of my many diets that actually got started !

Theres a bit more jet cut back in both the GFS and UKMO . We can’t expect a miracle turn around though . The high will sink but it’s trying to lessen that as much as possible and keep those low heights to the south .

The sink of HP isn’t an issue Nick as it will happen, but the loop back will give more colder conditions less likely to be totally phased out before the next cold blast....which enhances the next attack?

 

BFTP