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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The easterly on offer even if it did materialize wasn’t great . Convective snow potential wasn’t there . We never saw the depth of cold to fire up the North Sea . 

It’s disappointing but thankfully we weren’t forecast a week in New York and ended up in Skegness . 

Skegness can be an attractive proposition from time to time.

 

skegness-ryan-webster-2.thumb.jpg.2b51e2849eb73fca405608c2ef4f5c44.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

The output suggests that any “fun” is at least 10 plus days away. Frustrating of course but we are starting from a good place. Enough to keep us all hunting but the wait goes on. Anything past t144 is fi for a reason. 

It is always better to have all main models on the same page as it is rare for one to come in line with another. Not unheard of but a middle ground is usually the scenario and every time so far middle ground has been close but..... 

The “hunt” continues because that’s what we love to do

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 6z gfs starts less amplified than the 0z but somehow manages to amplify more than the earlier run by 120 hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

At this rate, If everyone in this forum makes it into February intact and sane, I’ll be amazed.

The models are going to continue to struggle for a long time yet.

This is just so unusual. The forecast longevity of this SSW is quite something to behold. After nearly 3 consecutive weeks of reversed winds, the mean is still running at -7 m/s!?! 

DB0A489F-FF9E-4AB4-9981-3A601238C25E.thumb.png.9b66ba465702ce2a751c31210a9fb4f1.png

 

 

 

 

Indeed the frustration levels are something to be hold lol.When or if would you expect the wind reversal to show up on the mo ie signals for an imprint on the nhp.tia

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z gfs starts less amplified than the 0z but somehow manages to amplify more than the earlier run by 120 hours. 

Looks about the same to me? 

 

286D870F-8354-41A7-91B3-D75D7A9E8BCF.png

96DA3BE1-795A-4C09-B9B3-107CEB5E3241.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

At this rate, If everyone in this forum makes it into February intact and sane, I’ll be amazed.

The models are going to continue to struggle for a long time yet.

This is just so unusual. The forecast longevity of this SSW is quite something to behold. After nearly 3 consecutive weeks of reversed winds, the mean is still running at -7 m/s!?! 

 

75B45D36-D730-4ECD-9B55-EE94CE651BF9.thumb.png.c264203d79420b08b339179f5cdcaa98.png

Just noticed. That dip around the 10th is new as well.

 

Is it the dip around the 10th that’s new or that the numbers prior to the10th aren’t now as low as forecast previously ??

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
11 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

At this rate, If everyone in this forum makes it into February intact and sane, I’ll be amazed.

The models are going to continue to struggle for a long time yet.

This is just so unusual. The forecast longevity of this SSW is quite something to behold. After nearly 3 consecutive weeks of reversed winds, the mean is still running at -7 m/s!?! 

 

75B45D36-D730-4ECD-9B55-EE94CE651BF9.thumb.png.c264203d79420b08b339179f5cdcaa98.png

Just noticed. That dip around the 10th is new as well.

 

Last 4 0z op runs from the weatheriscool site:

epsmean10hPa60N.png

A few daily records are going to be broken, that's for sure. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks about the same to me? 

 

286D870F-8354-41A7-91B3-D75D7A9E8BCF.png

96DA3BE1-795A-4C09-B9B3-107CEB5E3241.png

Similar but on this run deeper cold coming down and getting into the ne.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks about the same to me? 

 

286D870F-8354-41A7-91B3-D75D7A9E8BCF.png

96DA3BE1-795A-4C09-B9B3-107CEB5E3241.png

The ridge extends a bit further north on the 6z and as a result colder air reaches central Europe by 140 hours (-10 instead of -7 or8). The amplification is not enough for the UK to benefit.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Come on own up, who told the family/friends there could be snow next week? Thats the truest kiss of death, I bet someone did 

 

I told them, but not next week but near the end of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
20 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

At this rate, If everyone in this forum makes it into February intact and sane, I’ll be amazed.

The models are going to continue to struggle for a long time yet.

This is just so unusual. The forecast longevity of this SSW is quite something to behold. After nearly 3 consecutive weeks of reversed winds, the mean is still running at -7 m/s!?! 

 

75B45D36-D730-4ECD-9B55-EE94CE651BF9.thumb.png.c264203d79420b08b339179f5cdcaa98.png

Just noticed. That dip around the 10th is new as well.

 

What's the longevity of the ssw and what charts can be trusted to reflect this duration or are they as open to change as the models themselves on a strat and trop basis as they appear to be now? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

@nick sussex your always hunting for us Well here’s some for you. If this run is to be believed parts of main land Europe are going to get some heavy snow.

B0EF2DE9-AE74-4596-B1F7-571FD7697580.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Come on own up, who told the family/friends there could be snow next week? Thats the truest kiss of death, I bet someone did 

Yeah, as usual when the models move away from what we want they very rarely move back, attention turning to medium range again.

Guess we'll have to put those snow tyres away now then....pffft!!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Regarding the strat forecasts, whilst we see a prediction from gfs and ec ops for the reversal to work all the way down post day 8, that’s above 75N and reflects the building arctic high just the other side of the pole

they also show an increasing trop zonal flow around 60N ...... these charts don’t show where in the NH that flow is strong .........

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Next few frames of the GFS could get good, those heights building over NE Canada. By day 11 we should be in some decent PM air

edit - looking good 

2AC8D06B-C16E-41E2-A76E-29A898FFBC6B.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is it the dip around the 10th that’s new or that the numbers prior to the10th aren’t now as low as forecast previously ??

Either way, its a sustained reversal which gives us time for propagation.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

@nick sussex your always hunting for us Well here’s some for you. If this run is to be believed parts of main land Europe are going to get some heavy snow.

B0EF2DE9-AE74-4596-B1F7-571FD7697580.png

I'm getting some very shortly, light snow this afternoon then turning heavier tomorrow morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I'm getting some very shortly, light snow this afternoon then turning heavier tomorrow morning.

I think we all need to move to Poland!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

lots of hill snow already by day 11 up north.

A3C36494-855A-4B58-8061-0F25A753DE4C.png

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