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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not suprised  TBH- i commented that the day 10 EC mean was showing signs of ridging in the Atlantic so im feeling the signal for N Atlantic ridging will be evident say week 3?

Negative NAO for week 3 (21st Jan) and just importantly -EPO is also in place. NAO looks central based. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Bullseye said:

Negative NAO for week 3 (21st Jan) and just importantly -EPO is also in place. NAO looks central based. 

Brilliant- green to go on EC 46 then!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

DwBQGodWwAMO2_G.thumb.jpg.a3b70922bb58ad96aa8cda89ed60edb7.jpg

 

Oh yes sir 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 18 hrs run  is developing the same amplified wave as the ECM moving through the USA at T204 hours .

We just need some of that shortwave energy to the nw to clear off !

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Quote source

“Latest ECMWF Monthly output, in keeping with thoughts from various sub-seasonal forecast centres (incl. delaying colder risks until late Jan), sees significant height/SLP rises to the N/NW by late Jan on into early Feb. The outcome sees a mean NE'ly flow, with strong anomalies for below average temps across much of the UK (England especially) by late Jan. The signal is all the more compelling given lead time, but it's clear the model has likely reached some tipping point in terms of better assimilation of both SSW and MJO impacts (the latter now with more amplified phase 8). Nonetheless it provides only a broad sense of future direction for now, whilst operational models play catch-up and ultimately capture better detail and timeline.”

ask me no questions ill tell you No lies

giphy.gif

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Thats both the ECM and GFS starting to toy with a possible attempt to Greenland at day 10. Is the week 2 ECM chart available?

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We have the gap opening up now to the nw at T228 hrs .

The high should escape nw now .

gonna be a good one this! ⛄

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We have the gap opening up now to the nw at T228 hrs .

The high should escape nw now .

This would seem to be when the real fun begins. As alluded to earlier on an other post.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yesssssssss!!

Weeks 3 and 4 look absolutely amazing..

Yes and during what I class true mid - winter, optimum time for depth of cold - when everything feels in its in true winter slumber base state - by mid Feb, an air of spring and increasing daylight reminds you winter is about to lose its grip. If I was greedy I would prefer such a scenario now rather than having to wait 2 or so weeks, given early -mid Jan is a preety dismal time of year, but if it verifies it would be worth the wait after what will have been an exceptionally lacklustre first half to winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, stratty said:

gonna be a good one this! ⛄

I certainly have more faith in the second ridge being successful than the first.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Lmao, in true GFS fashion, greenland high completely killed on the very first low-res frame. Looking decent at day 10 though.

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Quote source

“Latest ECMWF Monthly output, in keeping with thoughts from various sub-seasonal forecast centres (incl. delaying colder risks until late Jan), sees significant height/SLP rises to the N/NW by late Jan on into early Feb. The outcome sees a mean NE'ly flow, with strong anomalies for below average temps across much of the UK (England especially) by late Jan. The signal is all the more compelling given lead time, but it's clear the model has likely reached some tipping point in terms of better assimilation of both SSW and MJO impacts (the latter now with more amplified phase 8). Nonetheless it provides only a broad sense of future direction for now, whilst operational models play catch-up and ultimately capture better detail and timeline.”

End quote -

ask me no questions, ill tell you No lies

Thanks Karlos. Interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

That amplified wave is key now , this will run east as it does so as long as we can clear some annoying shortwave energy to the west we should see a ridge building to the nw and trough dropping into Scandi .

 

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