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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Have to say the Beebs thoughts are at odds with peoples expectations on here , virtually zero in wintry ppn and not overly cold , the 12z snap shop below mirrors the Beebs thoughts 

gfsnh-0-132 12z .png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Just now, Banbury said:

Have to say the Beebs thoughts are at odds with peoples expectations on here , virtually zero in wintry ppn and not overly cold , the 12z snap shop below mirrors the Beebs thoughts 

gfsnh-0-132 12z .png

I don’t know what shop you are buying your snaps from but the above has snow showers in the east!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Have to say the Beebs thoughts are at odds with peoples expectations on here , virtually zero in wintry ppn and not overly cold , the 12z snap shop below mirrors the Beebs thoughts 

gfsnh-0-132 12z .png

If that chart dosnt push snow showers inland from the east there’s something wrong imo

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Have to say the Beebs thoughts are at odds with peoples expectations on here , virtually zero in wintry ppn and not overly cold , the 12z snap shop below mirrors the Beebs thoughts 

gfsnh-0-132 12z .png

Not sure what you're getting at, cant see how you say it mirrors bbc yet there forecast is not overly cold, that would be a good 5 degerees below average in terms of max temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Gfs 18z good at T120

50C241AA-78EA-4C77-9CAF-DE14EB0C110E.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I don’t know what shop you are buying your snaps from but the above has snow showers in the east!

Not according to what I've just seen on a forecast - but that's off topic - the set up ( from the Beeb)is similar in terms of the LP going down the East doesn't mean the extent of the cold is the same - or spread of ppn , two different models two variations of what MIGHT happen

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure what you're getting at, cant see how you say it mirrors bbc yet there forecast is not overly cold, that would be a good 5 degerees below average in terms of max temps.

In terms of LP position - previously explained though, the Beeb don't think it will be snowflake cold - sadly 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Interesting feature developing in the Atlantic there down the west side of the block, could it go under and cut off the high with a pincer movement from both sides... not much room for the cell to go though unfortunately.

1C732E1F-0DFD-4D09-B6B4-5BE13AC278D5.png

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Safe to say gfs 18z not backing ukmo or ecm and looks cold with snow showers for england!

BBC forecast completely uninspiring... I just don't get it . Someone explain please. They say nothing significantly cold in the foreseeable!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Safe to say gfs 18z not backing ukmo or ecm and looks cold with snow showers for england!

Indeed which is as I pointed out at odds with what the Beeb have just shown, I'd love a cold flow with wintry ppn blowing in , but I always go off the TV rather than a computer screen especially at this range 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Just waiting to see what happens to the jet next.  How much energy going in each direction as it splits in the Atlantic...

 

image.png

Edited by pdiddy
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

The airmass is not that cold thanks to the bloated warm sector with the initial trough moving south.

You'd be talking mostly wintry showers rather than snow at low levels.

gfs-1-138.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

BBC forecast completely uninspiring... I just don't get it . Someone explain please. They say nothing significantly cold in the foreseeable!

Because they mainly use ECM at Meteogroup I'd imagine.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 18 hrs run takes a bit longer to bring the cold south as it develops the shortwave more .

Overall though not much difference at T138 hrs .

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Pretty sure that the Beeb forecasts don’t use the latest output anyway. Seem to recall this being an issue last summer.

However, we can’t diacount what they are saying because some model output does support their version.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, karlos1983 said:

People will be happy in an hour or so when BA digests and shares the EC46 it’s a gooden! 

As for next week, we are getting some varyiation of the theme now. But it’s looking cold especially across more southern areas.

8F73CA52-DF1B-4D16-8C00-A3AD3F32AFD4.thumb.png.e416b0041419413f9f5bb398caeba912.png

 

I'm not suprised  TBH- i commented that the day 10 EC mean was showing signs of ridging in the Atlantic so im feeling the signal for N Atlantic ridging will be evident say week 3?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Weekly ensemble forecasts showing deep trough sinking through scandi as the month progresses, allowing heights to build robustly to our NW. - thanks to the core chunk of the PV sat over N Siberia

Likely pattern for the next 2-3 weeks, a northerly, heights topple in, a more potent northerly again perhaps, heights once again toppling in, then a trigger deep low to the NW, diving south, heights then build to the NW, and with a southerly tracking jet we are exposed to sustained cold from between north and east. This is the most likely scenario towards an eventual cold set up - it will take longer than some are hoping.

 

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