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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Spring Weather Discussion

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phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, snowice said:

On par  with Fv3 Gfs so not bad at all! 

What’s great about that chart it shows you how accuracy has improved over the years .Certainly the ICON is a big improvement on its predecessor the GME.

Edited by nick sussex
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Let’s hope the Icelandic site is working on time tonight! Could be a very interesting ECM update come 22:02 (ish)

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

GEFS perturbations with interest but at the ICONic timescale of T180 from the 12z suite, criterion for inclusion: not scientific, what I liked:

image.thumb.jpg.262bfa2da6a403612322d5588e3d01c3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.969fa60070f76d9b36142eb07a817a49.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.16d553080d07895cdd3672bef283a5cd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.96a2e8b3e76edc475751c2882a12841d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4fc0bc62b52a4adb85c28e06be9b6ca1.jpg

My bet is more early cold solutions on tomorrow's runs, not necessarily a lot more, just more....

Edited by Mike Poole
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Significant adjustments to the eps tonight, much more amplified in the North Atlantic and across North America. Still got some catching up to do with the GEFS, and confirms it takes the EPS 2 days to react to GEFS when it switches.

All model suites now carving out a deep trough across Scandinavia and West Russia in the extended. Significant as it cannot be attributed to upstream ridging or nascent polar blocking. First impacts of downwelling being felt?

I've always thought this, not suggesting they are always right of course, but i have always thought that the GEFS are the most sensitive to a pattern change to cold, i perhaps thought i was imagining it because you never used to get EPS 850's graph, and maybe it is down to the fact that the GEFS go out a bit further, but there are 50 members in the eps suite yet more GEFS members seem to drop like a stone first.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html

Seems to be up there with the jma

Thanks for that . They are though just for North America . The DWD chart is for the North Atlantic and Central Europe which is more pertinent for us .

Looking at DWDs site their term North Atlantic covers Africa all the way to Greenland and to Russia so certainly I think it’s a good model to use . The RMSE error rate for our neck of the woods certainly takes it out of the cannon fodder model section!

Edited by nick sussex
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Having analysed other people's thoughts and posted charts, the key timeframe to perhaps talk seriously about some snow now is January 9th through January 11th. That is still D6 to D8 at this range, so post the weekend wobbles (guaranteed), we need Monday's official forecasts and NWP outputs to highlight this first real wintry possibility of the winter so far. More fun and games as we head deeper into the second part of January no doubt. A 50/50 chance right now I guess. The caveat is just where will the HP ridge sit, if out in the Atlantic, then places, East and Northeast might be best suited for the wintry stuff. Time to worry over those specifics is not now, however.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Sparky68 Community Regular

Sparky68

Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Having analysed other people's thoughts and posted charts, the key timeframe to perhaps talk seriously about some snow now is January 9th through January 11th. That is still D6 to D8 at this range, so post the weekend wobbles (guaranteed), we need Monday's official forecasts and NWP outputs to highlight this first real wintry possibility of the winter so far. More fun and games as we head deeper into the second part of January no doubt. A 50/50 chance right now I guess. 

Will happily take 50/50 over the dire December we had.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

With ecm not looking to good with the intiaal easterly and ensembles not backing it up would it be possible to see a downgrade on the 18zs tonight!!if not then  00z ecm could upgrade in the short term!!

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

The low pressure for early next week looks very interesting, I must say some very very interesting outputs at the moment, perhaps some  disruptive weather next week?

ecmt850.120-2.png

h850t850eu-25.png

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
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Posted (edited)

Later gefs look like going quite cold for the UK as the -ve anomalies spread west below us.Note the Arctic high poking down through the Griceland area.

The first chart is the 500 hPa ht anomalies days 12-16 and the second one is mean mean sea level pressure anomalies at day  15

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.2e020cdcbd1ba09480cfff45d807d052.pnggfs-ens_mslpa_nhem_65.thumb.png.4f71c82b17b009263f9bdf9536d1f8cc.png

and finally the mean days 12-16 surface temperatures anomalies.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.476be6d066662600dc9b6bee0c904fb4.png

Quite a cold set with the pattern for us looking like going colder from days 10/11 with another Arctic push as the low anomalies show a southerly tracking jet.

Be interested to know how the later eps are looking.

Edited by phil nw.
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Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

With ecm not looking to good with the intiaal easterly and ensembles not backing it up would it be possible to see a downgrade on the 18zs tonight!!if not then  00z ecm could upgrade in the short term!!

All I'm gonna say is remember February 2018 where all models wanted cold just in time for the ECM to jump ship before eventually coming back. I obviously don't think the parallel will be as good as the 12z but you never know... I think ECM should flip to cold next week and beyond very soon.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

I think it’s headed generally in the right direction 

incidentally, the SOI is dropping so will reflect nino soon 

quite amusing listening to bastardi on wetherbell..... his expectations being met with all the indicators....MJO, SSW, SST’s and yet the nwp is solid on the states staying warmer than average .... he sounds desperate and frustrated but he isn’t the only one expecting the modelling to change somewhat...... 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

 

20 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Be interested to know how the later eps are looking.

Messy in the extended - I think that with 51 members, when there are lots of different clusters, the mean/anomoly make for a confusing picture. Broad scrussian trough as Stewart mentioned - the probability maps say less than 10% chance of amplification to our west - I assume the model is sticking with its nw/se jet around the ebb and flow of the Azores ridge displaced a little north 

 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

As anticipated, lots of change in the models from run to run at present - as they get to grips with the effects of the SSW and splitting of the PV - and this will continue. Sudden short-term developments now appear to be happening, with GFS and ECM keen on developing a trigger shortwave feature to our NW, becoming quite a deep low pressure feature early next week, crashing over the high, and ushering in a cold northerly, before heights topple in behind. 

The Ensembles support this evolution, more troughing to our NE, heights sitting to our west, and the jet taking  NW-SE path. An undercut scenario could very easily develop in a short-term development as indicated by ECM - but may need another northerly shot before that happens, with the high toppling sufficiently NE to build that crucial wedge of heights to our North in the Iceland region  which I firmly believe will be the trigger to any sustained colder interlude later on in the month.

In the meantime after three or so weeks of unusually calm dry weather in the main (since the freezing rain event) - it looks like we will have some weather to talk about again!

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Messy in the extended - I think that with 51 members, when there are lots of different clusters, the mean/anomoly make for a confusing picture. Broad scrussian trough as Stewart mentioned - the probability maps say less than 10% chance of amplification to our west - I assume the model is sticking with its nw/se jet around the ebb and flow of the Azores ridge displaced a little north 

 

Don't we have to wait until about 2200hrs for the latest?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Purga said:

Don't we have to wait until about 2200hrs for the latest?

He is talking the 12z eps, the EC46 is derived from the finishing conditions of the 0z eps.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Author
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Messy in the extended - I think that with 51 members, when there are lots of different clusters, the mean/anomoly make for a confusing picture. Broad scrussian trough as Stewart mentioned - the probability maps say less than 10% chance of amplification to our west - I assume the model is sticking with its nw/se jet around the ebb and flow of the Azores ridge displaced a little north 

 

Thanks,yes as said before Blue the Scandi/Euro trough seems an ongoing trend and the way that vortex chunk is orientated on the Siberian side i guess helps to continue with the feed of cold down into Europe.Gefs later on suggest the Azores heights revert to low anomalies so maybe the pattern is setting up for a Griceland wedge of hts from cross polar ridging,forcing the jet further south by way of a trigger low heading south east. 

In a perfect world this would happen but seriously this is quite a possible evolution given what is happening higher up and anyway it's nice to speculate now and then.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

He is talking the 12z eps, the EC46 is derived from the finishing conditions of the 0z eps.

The EC46 is down to one run? Really..... so they could run it everyday theoretically & it could change daily...?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The EC46 is down to one run? Really..... so they could run it everyday theoretically & it could change daily...?

its a 51 member suite.

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