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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

A very surprising chart from ECM at 240t. Almost flushes out any remnants left of cold uppers over much of Europe and Russia in one almighty sweep.Think this is a rogue run and far to warm. Those uppers over the UK look extreme.

C

ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

Maybe a trend

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Where is icon on the score sheet Nick. 

I’m still digging around to find verification stats for that.

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Hello all, long time reader, first time poster!

Really enjoy the musings over the models and trying to learn about it all.

So far I've never understood why the JMA comes up with stuff so far fetched but generally the other models don't! How can they be so different?

Really hoping for another "Beast from the East " or at least a...."Force from the North"...anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3  GFS para 0.840

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

That’s quite encouraging that the GFS (P) is an actual improvement on the GFS!

shocked the GEM is outdoing the GFS, no wonder they are replacing it

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3  GFS para 0.840

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

BTW Nick i was referring to the JMA operational, not the short or long range ensemble mean, the seasonal / monthly output is usually one of the better models.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Did someone mention cat litter, all the models have been finding it hard to get to grips with the situ regarding the SSW, and I still think they still are struggling but now they are starting to wake up and the signs have been very positive for cold across the UK, I mean just look at the gefs members the changes in just 24 hrs is :yahoo:

 

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

looking very good at T120, and if anything it usually underestimates the cold somewhat.

nmm-16-120-0.png

lets hope so uppers around -5 won't deliver the goods for us snow starved Southerners

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
51 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3  GFS para 0.840

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

We’re talking about the JMA monthly prediction long range model ? I’ve definitely herd it talked  of highly in here in the past. Have you got a link for your verification stats please. 

How can you possibly compare the two when as far as I can see the Icon doesn’t do a one month anomaly prediction ? 

Edited by shotski
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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3  GFS para 0.840

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

Some observations/questions Nick:

- what part of the globe is that for? (our little country is rather small in the scheme of things!)

- and how is 'success' measured for the sake of those performance stats (rained in London when it said it would?)?

Also, if those are correlations (predicted/actual something), then 77% of variance explained by ECM compared to 66% for NAVGEM is not really so huge a difference - and how does that translate into snow/no snow in UK?!;

Add to that that the SSW is likely to stretch these models to different degress (and the stats won't have been achieved in those conditions in any case!)

CORE MESSAGE: stats (especially of 'fuzzy' measurements) can appear to be more authoritative than they actually are for any given purpose. I would think those figures are about as useful as a proverbial chocolate teapot at the moment. Happy to be convinced otherwise

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In terms of the ICON still trying to find those stats.  However in terms of temps forecast . On the DWD site apparently it verifies the same at day 7 compared to its predecessor the GME did at day 6 . So that suggests an overall improvement . Apparently it also has its own ensembles . 

PS just found them . Surprisingly good . Once on laptop I’ll stick up the image .

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
28 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The only trouble I find with the JMA charts is I can never find the UK !

Just think upside down, JMA is a Japanese model so has japan at the front, Uk at the top of the chart  

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Posted
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Tuscan Apennines (approx 500M ASL)
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 However in terms of temps forecast

ahh, that answers one of my questions!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Just think upside down, JMA is a Japanese model so has japan at the front, Uk at the top of the chart  

Thanks found it by turning my tablet upside down...once I had figured out how to turn off auto rotate!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
41 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

'Potential at day 10' - where have I heard that before?...oh yes this entire late autumn and winter.

 

Patience young padawan , this coming Feb will be the coldest in a generation. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Damn that’s annoying ! My laptop for some reason keeps refusing to accept that site.

So type icon dwd model verification into your search engine .

Go to the site listed with verification node .

First chart you see has the verification , it’s done in a different style and uses some different measures . Roughly it looks like on that scale it’s around 0.84 ish at day 6 .

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

EC Op vs mean at 144, not much diff and the mean doesn’t look good thereafter. 

B6002321-63EE-472A-B435-9F4A8D3EFE9C.png

E6C76DF5-58C8-40F0-B101-0981C0DDE39A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Not posted much the last few days as it doesn't seem appropriate to focus too much on individual runs when the whole suite has been all over the place.  I did feel a wobble yesterday, but the wobble is gone today, the output has been hugely significant in terms of an increase in probability of cold, in my view.

Given model volatility, I'm restricting myself to output from the 12s at T144.  Here in increasing potential are JMA, GEM, ECM, UKMO, GFS, ICON, FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.bbd4e260bdeeb42fddf8c8da948e41ac.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e2b26a33a405b0db21d6387f44ffd89e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.741baa3c2a18f38d2c93e0a1c3add1d7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5d465c18323188505302bc0843aa35c2.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3d801a958c71039e8c9068d2a89b8a08.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.477b10d68005f8e76888d4fb6fc7f538.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f7ffe77afc40c44dd8886af32cc3a415.jpg

This is early following SSW, to what extent is this a QTR, and to what extent is it due to MJO, GWO?  I don't know, but note that there seems uncertainty over the latter, but there's also uncertainty over the effect of the SSW. I just note it as an issue, my feeling is the MJO may be the slightly stronger driver at the moment, to be overtaken by the SSW.

The ICON and FV3 solutions don't match well with the MO forecasts, all of which begs the question, what probability of a quick route to serious cold, against most expectations?  I would put it at about 30% after today's runs.  But if the model drift of the past 24 hours continues it could increase...very interesting times on so many fronts, let's see how it unfolds!

I certainly wouldn't rule out one of those rare sudden flip to cold model apocalypses!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Gav's latest vid...take Prozac before viewing the CFS2...?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

EC Op vs mean at 144, not much diff and the mean doesn’t look good thereafter. 

B6002321-63EE-472A-B435-9F4A8D3EFE9C.png

E6C76DF5-58C8-40F0-B101-0981C0DDE39A.png

There will be a big cluster with a N'ly plunge after 240 looking at the mean.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Damn that’s annoying ! My laptop for some reason keeps refusing to accept that site.

So type icon dwd model verification into your search engine .

Go to the site listed with verification node .

First chart you see has the verification , it’s done in a different style and uses some different measures . Roughly it looks like on that scale it’s around 0.84 ish at day 6 .

 

 

On par  with Fv3 Gfs so not bad at all! 

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