The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i think EC is lovely!!

And ends lovely ..

Only my opinion of course..

Thats not lovely NWS, thats just more of the old potential at D10. You have been looking at too many cruddy charts in the last few days thats all.

Edited January 3, 2019 by snowray

[Ice Day]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well i think EC is lovely!!

And ends lovely ..

Only my opinion of course..

For what it's worth, I agree. A slow burner but if this is the worst output of the day then we're onto a winner. Corking 240 chart.

 

 

 

 

[shotski]

This is interesting from JMA, which I believe has very good verification stats. Week 2 shows a slight return to Zonal followed by this very strong anomaly for weeks 3-4. This could get very messy at the end of the month ?

[Tim Bland]

Looking fairly clear now that the high will topple over us mid to end of nxt week with a chance of some snow in the east weds / Thurs. Then we look to our North west for a renewed build of heights and our next cold shot 

[snowray]

JMA even worse than ECM.

 

Think I will stick with the form horse.... ICON!

[Froze were the Days]

'Potential at day 10' - where have I heard that before?...oh yes this entire late autumn and winter.

 

[mountain shadow]

The ECM is just a variation on the theme, the first ridge WILL sink' it's whether we can get some wintryness before it does so. The MJO ECM forecast showed no tropical assistance so we cannot be surprised at tonight's run.

It is the second ridge attempt which has a better chance.

[nick sussex]

The ECM is one of those runs which as a coldie won’t have you singing from the roof tops neither will it have you reaching for the NW helpline number !

Theres room for improvement .

[chris55]

57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Brilliant 12z, come on ECM let’s keep this theme going! I’m pretty shocked at the overall agreement so far I must be honest.

GFS(P) pick of the bunch........ so far 

It’s so nice to see someone who is adept at actually saving the image (chart) and actually posting the whole chart (with date, time, model and full synoptic details)

It can be really frustrating trying to work out which chart is being posted when people screen grab half the image and quote it.

Is it hard to do this on Android? It’s a very simple task on iPhone.

by the way today’s 12z GFS para at 144 looks excellent  

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

JMA even worse than ECM.

 

Think I will stick with the form horse.... ICON!

The "form horse" is for that big fat HP to stay over, or near us (to our West or SW) for next couple of weeks. Central and Eastern(&SE) Europe to grab the real cold and snow. 

[FetchCB]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM blows up the shortwave 

Hasn't this been a recurring issue with the ECM since its update.

I seem to recall comparisons to GFS dartboard lows?  If so then it would support Steve Murrs suspicions that it may be being too progressive. 

[Dunstable Snow]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is one of those runs which as a coldie won’t have you singing from the roof tops neither will it have you reaching for the NW helpline number !

Theres room for improvement .

Yes fully agree, hope, expectation and the desire to be back in here in 3 hours time is fully intact. The good thing about where we are now given the output and background signals is the potential for upgrades is greater than downgrades. Not often we can say that.  

[KTtom]

10 minutes ago, shotski said:

This is interesting from JMA, which I believe has very good verification stats. Week 2 shows a slight return to Zonal followed by this very strong anomaly for weeks 3-4. This could get very messy at the end of the month ?

The only trouble I find with the JMA charts is I can never find the UK !

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

'Potential at day 10' - where have I heard that before?...oh yes this entire late autumn and winter.

 

Potential at day ten which equates to; Clutching at straws!

[Sparky68]

I leave the thread at midday awaiting the goodies from next week on and comeback and dont know what to make of it.

[A.J]

*broken record alert time*.......fair to say, the model output suites are volatile to say the least as the SSW variables are added to the complex algorithms.....just my own preference but I'd drop FI down to T96/120 until the various suites show consistency......the caveat being most of outputs are showing signs of a vague future pattern but much to be resolved in the interim....As mentioned earlier by a a member a blend of the outputs is the best way forwards at this time....fascinating times

[nick sussex]

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3  GFS para 0.840

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

Edited January 3, 2019 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

Don’t worry everyone, the ECM op will be a warm outlier and the rest of the ECMF will follow the GFSP.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[carinthian]

A very surprising chart from ECM at 240t. Almost flushes out any remnants left of cold uppers over much of Europe and Russia in one almighty sweep.Think this is a rogue run and far to warm. Those uppers over the UK look extreme.

C

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Yes, never rated it, it sometimes over amps things, not even viewed it, just come back and seen this comment but ive never rated it.

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Nooooo. Cat litter is useful

[feb1991blizzard]

The split SSW on the GFS at the end of the run is just starting to downwell a bit further now, nothing to shout about but i always look for things that tie in with the extended UKMO forecast.

[snowice]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA is cat litter . 

It verifies similar to the NAVGEM at day 6 . 

Current rankings at day 6 using anomaly correlation for 12 hrs runs .

ECM 0.878

UKMO 0.855

FV3 0.840:

GEM 0.838

GFS 0.824

JMA 0.813

NAVGEM 0.812

Where is icon on the score sheet Nick. 

[shotski]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

The only trouble I find with the JMA charts is I can never find the UK !

Yes there not the best, turn your phone upside down and we’re just below the orange blob

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Don’t worry everyone, the ECM op will be a warm outlier and the rest of the ECMF will follow the GFSP.

Yes could well be an outlier, ensembles will be interesting when they come out.

Here is the high res French model thats just out to complete todays 12z runs, looking very good at T120, and if anything it usually underestimates the cold somewhat.