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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Oh hum. The only thing we got to watch out for is a slight shift to the east with all really the cold air yet again disappearing down the north sea. We still got this horrible high which is laughing at us and may yet pull another joke on us yet. Anyway ECM taking it's time now to increase the suspense. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

That's as far as i am going 144hr para splits the energy as does ICON but the rest dont still plenty of time to join the party..

Until that's resolved i look no further but in a happy mood this evening..

iconnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM poor - looks quite progressive, but within a window that could happen - 

Still think we will be more amplified..

Looks OK at 192 matey 

image.thumb.png.61706c89271d397fbf159f1be49fc1fc.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looks OK at 192 matey 

image.thumb.png.61706c89271d397fbf159f1be49fc1fc.png

I'd be interested in what you think is ok about that? Looks like it's all flattening out?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

We know how the ecm loves to expand and blow up high cells...

Then pop em like a balloon.

Another good run in that sense...and overal as a whole..

On we flow......

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

I'd be interested in what you think is ok about that? Looks like it's all flattening out?

Maybe his opinion which of course we are entitled to on this forum, be it indifferent - good or bad 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'd be interested in what you think is ok about that? Looks like it's all flattening out?

Agreed, looks pretty poor 

FF478156-147E-4B77-87B0-B41D15ECE364.thumb.png.e665bc0cac92964f9f240aa31648a2ff.png

who knows where we end up past 192 though ...,

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
2 minutes ago, terrier said:

So yesterday we were told the gfs is garbage and about as much use as a chocolate fire guard. And to follow the ecm. And now it’s not as good as the gfs some are saying it will come into line. Oh the joys and irony

I was about to say the same thing. I feel for the newbies being thrown from pillar to post 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
7 minutes ago, booferking said:

That's as far as i am going 144hr para splits the energy as does ICON but the rest dont still plenty of time to join the party..

Until that's resolved i look no further but in a happy mood this evening..

iconnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-0-144.png

Exactly what I’m thinking but also how nice is it to see charts like this at 144 and not like 300 odd.

oh and now the cold and possibly snowy charts are showing where has more snow disappeared too? Thought he’d be excited about the possibility of SNAW

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Shes having another pop..

My assumptions would be the ec..in on dire confuse..with waa roading!!!!

ECH1-216 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM blows up the shortwave which then takes this further north between day 3 and day 4 .

It also has less cold air digging south after wards .

Its not a disaster in terms of evolution upto that point . By day 9 it’s developing a big amplification wave over the central USA.

Day ten might look okay if that shortwave energy splits near Newfoundland . You want that heading sw and clearing a path for the high to ridge to .

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Agreed, looks pretty poor 

FF478156-147E-4B77-87B0-B41D15ECE364.thumb.png.e665bc0cac92964f9f240aa31648a2ff.png

who knows where we end up past 192 though ...,

Agreed not the best for reasons already discussed but will the high start to build to the North West as the PV transfers East and bring lows on a NW/SE trajectory through the UK ? It could be a lot better but it could also be much worse. As NWS says pressure remains low across Iberia.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

The ECM is:proxy.duckduckgo-2.thumb.jpg.80bbaddb6fe6c2dd32763afe026dd300.jpg

 

 

Never rated the model much any way!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Maybe his opinion which of course we are entitled to on this forum, be it indifferent - good or bad 

Aren't I allowed to ask him a question?

Edited by Johnp
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