The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Mucka]

GFSp is going very much the way I expected ICON to go until it lost its way 120+

Going to be an epic run

Edited January 3, 2019 by Mucka

[weecrunchie]

2 minutes ago, Snow Dragon said:

 

You seem to forget that you were new to the forum once and spent time looking for help, almost looking for an impartial forecast. Answers like yours do nothing to help those who, like yourself once was, are new the forum and looking for help trying to make sense of the ups and downs that we are seeing lately run to run in the models. People once had patience with you and all that is asked is that you pay back in kind.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/41251-snowfall-this-winter/?tab=comments#comment-1086419

response of the year already

[ghoneym]

23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good point . Either way though our best bet is for the MJO to slow down once in phase 7.

On the last NCEP update the forecaster mentioned that we might see a Rossby wave during week 1 of the forecast . He talked about that because at the time the GEFS had the signal stalling in phase 7 , he said it looked dubious but threw in the Rossby wave as perhaps a reason why we might see that stalling .

The same thing happened during December , when the MJO got somewhat marooned in phase 5 . The forecaster put that down to Rossby wave activity .

One from Twitter from A Masiello "the situation may be less about getting the MJO into phase 7-8 & more about extinguishing tropical heating in general. Perhaps a return of a large scale subsidence over indo/w.pacific will be when the Hadley cell calms down. phase 7-8 only effective if into subsidence is happening too"

[SLEETY]

ohh gfs para going for day afterr tomorrow scenario

Edited January 3, 2019 by SLEETY

[Nick F]

I’m not duly concerned with regards to the MJO wave speed and negative SOI / Nino-esque tropical signal atm as the sig. East Asian Mountain Torque event / +AAM, which is linked to the MJO propagation, could also be the precursor to high latitude blocking - that’s before factoring in the SSW impacts later on.

Plenty of positive signals towards a protracted spell of colder and eventually wintry weather through this month and beyond. Just look at how much the GFS has moved towards a colder outlook from when it was showing westerlies to infinity before the New Year. The return to westerlies still shown by no means certain at that range and, anyway, could be brief before the next reload from the arctic as amplification works through and the Atlantic ridge rebounds north again.

[seabreeze86]

The GFS p is stunningly cold it's fast becoming my favourite model. Some very cold uppers being pulled down from the north 

[SMU]

From the forecast earlier - We have 1/3 bringing the shortwave south with the deep cold

FV3

[summer blizzard]

What an arctic profile by the 11th from the GFSP, utterly obliterated profile. Just need wave activity to cut through to the upper atmosphere but that's a long lasting setup.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

The GFS p is stunningly cold it's fast becoming my favourite model. Some very cold uppers being pulled down from the north 

Proper cold

[booferking]

Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please be RIGHT...

[Mucka]

Still a toppler in deep FI but the upgrades in the hi res part of the runs iery encouraging

ECM sure to be a stonker, right? 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Still a toppler in deep FI but the upgrades in the hi res part of the runs iery encouraging

ECM sure to be a stonker, right? 

The good thing is the initial and best bit is earlier on, the collapse in deep FI is less likely if the SSW comes into give a help in hand 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The good thing is the initial and best bit is earlier on, the collapse in deep FI is less likely if the SSW comes into give a help in hand 

Yeah and tbh if you look at the 192 chart a toppler looks quite unlikely and I think it is overplaying the Atlantic forcing which is usual.

If we get 192 in that state or better i will be happy.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Mucka

[Methuselah]

Thanks for the more encouraging posts, peeps. Coming back from a blackout, just for the 12Z to go pear-shaped, wasn't what I wanted...But hey, the FV3 looks like being rather spiffing.

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

 

I must admit that even knowing the modelling shortfalls, the pace and close range of these changes has surprised me. It appears (pending other model support) that the extratropical component of the changes relating to the MJO movement and AAM surge has been overlooked by an exceptionally large margin.

Really good and clear conclusion. We have been wondering about this collectively for a few days I think and wondering if a sudden flip might happen. If these upgrades continue and we get a much quicker trop response to the warming than was initially considered, with tropical forcing coming in line, then the gold plated winter scenario becomes possible again.

Interesting read over at CPC on the MJO. Their summary of 31st Dec was strangely non committal, just stating clearly that GFS, ECM and CFS differed significantly in their prognosis. Maybe a bit of New Year's Eve effect....but perhaps also yet more evidence that our weather forecasting tools are not at all well cut out for extreme scenarios like this.

And while the weather isn't extreme (yet?) - this is an extreme scenario. Very significant warming and predicted long running split. Ventrice's tweet on longevity significant. This only 10 months after another extreme event. All part of climate change I'd suggest.

[Minnizi]

24 minutes ago, Snow Dragon said:

 

You seem to forget that you were new to the forum once and spent time looking for help, almost looking for an impartial forecast. Answers like yours do nothing to help those who, like yourself once was, are new the forum and looking for help trying to make sense of the ups and downs that we are seeing lately run to run in the models. People once had patience with you and all that is asked is that you pay back in kind.

 

 

Iv only been on her for just over 12mths, and the point you make about new ppl reading the posts to learn, thats why im on here. And obviously to hunt the ever wanting cold snowing weather

[karlos1983]

Brilliant 12z, come on ECM let’s keep this theme going! I’m pretty shocked at the overall agreement so far I must be honest.

GFS(P) pick of the bunch........ so far 

Edited January 3, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

All eyeson that shortwave over Norway at 144

Thats got deep cold air wrapped up in it & would bring a snow event if it gets under the high...

[Dancerwithwings]

Looking at todays gefs members from the 0z to 12z, the change in mid term is quite astonishing really.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P15 has caught my eye due to some similarities with the build up to last years beast from the east (yes it doesnt quite manage it but definite possibilities and it wouldn't take much for those -20 and below 850s to be on a UK bound track, hopefully this will be 1 of the many routes to cold possibilities that begin to increase over the next few days)

P15  

GFS forecast from last feb   actual chart from last feb  one to keep an eye on I think

coldest member for here from the 12z was a -13.8 850 temp

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

An incoming epic northerly blast?

[tight isobar]

Ecm lining up very decent..northerly..then-the run round north easterly !??..

...

Again the pv looking like a saddened flop...ready to commit 'harry carry'...

Edited January 3, 2019 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

Good but not as good as the UKMO or GFSP, no heights around Greeny. We shall see in the next frame.

850s only -4/-5 down the east.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[Chertseystreamer79]

Aaaaand back to the ecm....

[Stuie]

Regardless of snow or mahoosive Beast etc, it isn`t going to be mild next week, -6 uppers in by Weds.

Edit: Which is about 5 degs 2M temps 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Stuie W