The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[summer blizzard]

Just now, Leo97t said:

Temperatures not dropping below 3c in London so definitely no snow from next week in the south at the moment 

Strong flow and closer to the low than normal.

[frosty ground]

The next ridge will get there

Edited January 3, 2019 by frosty ground

[johnholmes]

Either way, im sure i'm not the only one thinking Exeter will have to re write their further outlook tomorrow because there is absolutely no sign of this wet stormy spell 2nd week of Jan they are referencing..

 

Perhaps you should pop across to the Met O 6-15 day as I cannot see such weather mentioned?

[weirpig]

The one aspect i like compared to the 6z run  is that the Vortex has shunted eastwards  hopefully allowing height rises  much easier 

[Singularity]

 

The Pacific - N. America pattern looks more promising here - the reversal wave again but where's it going to head I wonder? Pattern across the N. Atlantic looks more conducive to focusing low heights NE of Scandinavia rather than NW of the UK by D10 or so, which is helpful going forward.

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures not dropping below 3c in London so definitely no snow from next week in the south at the moment 

Not all about the Air Temperature.

May be a good time for someone to dig into the archives to find @johnholmes Excellent guide to snow fall

C.S

 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures not dropping below 3c in London so definitely no snow from next week in the south at the moment 

Can snow at 3C, just unlikely to settle that high, the dew point is more important, 0C or below required. Anyway, too far off to get worried about surface temps and forecast snow, so I will post T850s and dew points for next Thursday morning instead 

[nick sussex]

Good early , phasing drama almost over .

The issue is the PV movement . The lobe transfer west to east sinks the ridge on the UKMO.

We don’t want the transfer till we’ve had the jet cut back and developed stronger support for the high .

The GFS is better with the jet cut back and holds the high for longer .

Overall relief at no phase drama , a bit disappointed at the later timeframe . That could still change .

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Either way, im sure i'm not the only one thinking Exeter will have to re write their further outlook tomorrow because there is absolutely no sign of this wet stormy spell 2nd week of Jan they are referencing..

 

Perhaps you should pop across to the Met O 6-15 day as I cannot see such weather mentioned?

Ups todays does indeed postpone the unsettled stuff until mid month, cheers John

[johnholmes]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Not all about the Air Temperature.

May be a good time for someone to dig into the archives to find @johnholmes Excellent guide to snow fall

C.S

 

Too early to be using that other than as a way to pass the time until the next model run for you avid model followers. Best to wait until T+24 before getting excited. But this is the link

 

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Can snow at 3C, just unlikely to settle that high, the dew point is more important, 0C or below required. Anyway, too far off to get worried about surface temps and forecast snow, so I will post T850s and dew points for next Thursday morning instead 

Thats good enough for me!

[SMU]

Just now, snowray said:

Thats good enough for me!

Yep all snow for me

[Southender]

So a sniff of a wintry type of starter mid-late next week, with a few wintry showers particularly in Northern/Eastern districts. But the biggest and overwhelming signal is just how dry it could be for quite some time. Quite remarkable for the time of year. All smells very interesting to me. Classic old school slow burner build up to an incoming cold/very cold period mid/late month. Steady as she goes...

Edited January 3, 2019 by Southender

[The Beast From The East]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

There are more ! 

I’m still in festive mood, even more so after the GFS 06 hrs run !  Just a word about the phasing non phasing saga .

We’re almost there , I’d like just one more run before I can say “ this House is Clean “! A clue the phasing calamity entity  is hidden in a room  somewhere in the house , and the film has a horrible clown . I hate clowns ! 

Hi Nick, so all looking good with the early Phasing but are you now ready to say “ this House is Clean “!?  Or you waiting for the ECM? Just to be sure lol.

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep all snow for me

Only ingredient missing is the precipitation ... Q the “get the cold in first and worry about the snow later” posts ... 

[nick sussex]

It’s ironic .

The UKMO is more amplified upstream at day 6 than the GFS . But that amplification comes at the worst time helping to force the PV lobe more se .

 

[Nick F]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Either way, im sure i'm not the only one thinking Exeter will have to re write their further outlook tomorrow because there is absolutely no sign of this wet stormy spell 2nd week of Jan they are referencing..

Perhaps you should pop across to the Met O 6-15 day as I cannot see such weather mentioned?

I agree, many seem to think their forecasts are the be all and end all, they are just as fallible as the weather models nuances sometimes!

Anyway, best not talk about them in here, so, back on topic, like I mentioned previously, without low pressure/heights extending east from Azores to SW Europe undercut, the high bringing the Nly then NEly eventually get sucked SW toward the Azores - despite low heights / pressure over the western Med.

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

It is sinking though isn't it, over us again?

A sinking high would be one that sinks into Europe south of us...... thus putting us in a south westerly flow..... which is not what’s been modelled 

Edited January 3, 2019 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

GFS/UKMO 144 for comparison..

GFS

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/UKMO 144 for comparison..

GFS

Ukmo t168 will be interesting and we should be able to view the area of interest.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Hi Nick, so all looking good with the early Phasing but are you now ready to say “ this House is Clean “!?  Or you waiting for the ECM? Just to be sure lol.

People are going to think I’m nuts if they haven’t seen Poltergeist and don’t know that famous line and why I’m referring to it !

Yes I’m happy that we’ve avoided an early phase calamity . But now we need to see improvements after that .

[frosty ground]

Now where have we seen a low diving south east before......

 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

A sinking high would be one that sinks into Europe south of us...... thus putting us in a south westerly flow..... which is not what’s been modelled 

Eh? Compare the charts from T+0 & T+216, it has quite clearly sunk South West and we're in Westerlies.

[Singularity]

A broad trough is likely going to need to make its way to beneath the Siberian vortex from our NW in order to get the MJO P7 type pattern in place of mid-Atlantic ridging through Greenland/Iceland, and in doing so our ridge will be shunted south prior to a retraction west and then the next build north. 12z GFS depicting this as of +264 and as the upstream pattern led me to anticipate .

[Spah1]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And Exeter , this Northerly is only next week and no mention of it. 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

A cold north to northwesterly flow is likely to dominate early next week, with showers or perhaps more organised rain at times, mainly affecting northern and eastern areas, perhaps turning wintry over northern hills.

You need to read the outlook to comment on it.

And there it is! 

Interesting upgrades today