The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[MR EXTREMES]

nearly all of the modelled stratospheric outputs , are showing this annoying feature although the ecm has strong height anomaly to our west.

 maybe things are far from resolved.

its almost like the models have latched on to the idea of this warming effect ,

and have decided to chuck out eye candy.

only for the strat or sister vortex segments to come and ruin the excitement,

there's also the added warming which seem to be a thorn in uk potential side by pushing part of the vortex out to our west.

although other models also have a segment to the south of the uk..

we could get lucky before the atlantic comes back.

i noticed on the jma also a warm anomaly popping up over canada....... i dont know if this the infamous canadian warming that ive been watching for. 

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

6/10 on the shaky exclamiometer .....not bad, definite potential there.....if you hit an 8 on the next post then I reckon cold and snow's a shoe in! 

Give it another hour and could be hitting 8 easy!!and if we have a full house tonight then all sorts off stuff shall go off in this thread lol!!

[The Eagle]

Good start from ICON.

Now GFS/UKMO

 

 

[Mucka]

ICON loses its way after 120/44 with more Atlantic forcing than would be likely and a Greenland trough that misbehaves. If we can get to the position it shows at 120 then likely we would go on to see ridging into Greenland rather than a trough in situ.

Will be every interesting to see how the other models perform from day 4/5, not least if they show a similar synoptic to ICON at 120.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Mucka

[frosty ground]

I would say the Icon is not as good as this mornings run, with he blocking high not a strong as you can see with the higher uppers on this morning run.

 

 

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

I must admit that even knowing the modelling shortfalls, the pace and close range of these changes has surprised me. It appears (pending other model support) that the extratropical component of the changes relating to the MJO movement and AAM surge has been overlooked by an exceptionally large margin.

Yes..

The overlooking was to me obvious 4 some time..placements exactions etc..

The strings ate certainly tightening now though..

Mjo looks to has been very miss-dynamical...up until now!

[bluearmy]

Whilst I’m not too fussed with the icon as it’s flatter to the north than its previous run and without the undercut potential of the 00z run, upstream acosss n America at the back end is pretty notable ......

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Good luck sinking that High! Should be a Perfectly placed low to our South!

It is sinking though isn't it, over us again?

[frosty ground]

Big changes over the pole thou

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

I must admit that even knowing the modelling shortfalls, the pace and close range of these changes has surprised me. It appears (pending other model support) that the extratropical component of the changes relating to the MJO movement and AAM surge has been overlooked by an exceptionally large margin.

A strange period! I think many of us have been scratching our heads since about Christmas Day, wondering why there was not more amplification in the charts for this period - and to my great surprise, our hunches seem to have been right and the models wrong! Unusual for me (maybe not so unusual for you   )

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It is sinking though isn't it, over us again?

I wouldn’t say it’s sinking, it’s being squished but if we can keep it like that until that piece of vortex moves we would be in business, ICON is a good run still IMO.

[shaky]

Gfs looking more amplified at 66 hours again

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs looking more amplified at 66 hours again

The low is less developed so it looks more amplified but the ramifications of this could be cold air around day 5-6 time.

Edited January 3, 2019 by frosty ground

[bradymk]

Arpege also looking good at +114. Good ridge into Greenland. Lets see what GFS comes up with..

[SMU]

So read these words again

 

UKMO follows the ICON...

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I wouldn’t say it’s sinking, it’s being squished but if we can keep it like that until that piece of vortex moves we would be in business, ICON is a good run still IMO.

Still lots of time though for the ICON to upgrade further.

 

Yes UKMO looking 

 

 

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 120 looks awesome to me

[law of averages]

17 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Another year we could hope to emulate is 1855. The first ten days of January were mild with a flabby high over Europe, and CET values near 8 C to 7th and above 5 C to about the 12th. The second half of the month turned much colder, the end point was 2.4 C, and February was third coldest at --1.7 C with some bitterly cold easterlies showing up mid-month. There was a ten day interval that rivals any other for sustained near-record cold.

Looking at the wetterzentrale archive maps it would appear that the flabby Euro high gradually weakened in place, became an extension of higher pressure near the Ukraine, and then that ridge gradually disappeared when higher pressure still developed in Siberia and extended gradually towards the Baltic. There were no sudden or dramatic changes but eventually what we might consider perfect snow-producing synoptics appeared by early to mid February.

Another similarity was that the cold appeared at roughly the same time in eastern North America after a mild start to January there as well, with some record lows in the first half of February. This was a low solar year between the 1848 and 1860 sunspot peaks although not in a long-term quiet spell. Not sure if we can say whether the Pacific was in the El Nino state. Also it was just two winters after a cold late February and early March in 1853 so while that timing is different it shows that the progression from mild winter (1852) to late cold to mid-winter cold was operational. The winter of 1853-54 was fairly average after a very cold spell in mid-December. 

I've mentioned before that 1895 and 1917 also had these mild starts to January followed by gradual but sustained colder patterns. 1956 was not so organized but some rather mild days at first and then again before the major cold spell in early February as late as 28-29 Jan the mean was above 7.5 C. And if I asked you to guess the mean daily CET on 15-16 Jan 1947? 9.1 and 10.0  ... the subzero spell started on the 24th of January. Sometimes mild fades out, other times it has to be removed forcefully from the premises by one last gasp of the Atlantic. 

Given the stratospheric pattern and the evident weakness of the Pacific at present (can't even deliver El Nino warming to my house 300 miles from the ocean) I place the odds at 4:1 in favour of a sustained cold spell this winter, most likely timing 15 Jan to 25 Feb. The 1855 analogue looks closest to a perfect fit but hey, with all these major cold years showing similar signs, you have to be optimistic. 

Xcellent post Roger , I'm a great believer in patterns and I'm sure we will get a winter that's up there with best.... 2010, 1978/79 and I think 1996 being the other I have my memory

Edited January 3, 2019 by law of averages

[tight isobar]

Again lots aligning..

Gfs looking very good on evolving waa/block ...

And absolutely no issues with-profile @the top....

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by tight isobar

[Weathizard]

Look at the profile to the north/north west at 144 on the UKM, I would imagine should the UKMO have gone out further it would be mouth watering.

[warrenb]

GFS taking shortwave across Scotland. May well open floodgates from the north

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 120 looks awesome to me

Maybe I'm getting too old for all this, but all I'm seeing is a half decent ridge which will sink over the Uk again. There is still too much energy over the top of the ridge and the core heights are not really pushing North enough.

[bradymk]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst I’m not too fussed with the icon as it’s flatter to the north than its previous run and without the undercut potential of the 00z run, upstream acosss n America at the back end is pretty notable ......

Similar with UKMO 144 in that N America looking a lot different to previous runs by the models.  Heights a lot higher than what we've seen in past runs.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So read these words again

 

UKMO follows the ICON...

What?

It

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Maybe I'm getting too old for all this, but all I'm seeing is a half decent ridge which will sink over the Uk again. There is still too much energy over the top of the ridge and the core heights are not really pushing North enough.

The energy coming over the top is just transfering eastwards, after this frame I suspect we would see another ridge build pole wards.

Edited January 3, 2019 by frosty ground