Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

All I want to see is consistency in back to back runs - up to 10 days anyway. So if the 12z follows the 6z we’ll have a happy forum I imagine. 

With the associated difficulties in handling the SSW I wouldn’t hold your breath, could be another week before output settles down 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s actually hilarious at times I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly!

Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy

Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

EDIT: @PerfectStorm good point well made I can’t really argue with that!

Think we need to pin this at the top of every page lol, dosnt matter how many times this gets said you still get the same ones saying upgrade, oh dear this don’t look good. Boom. It’s nailed or nails in coffin, winter is over think we need to stay inside 144 as anything after that is pure f1 sorry I ment fi 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Clusters finally updated. Here's D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010300_288.

Looks very mixed. I really don't think the ensembles have a handle on the Atlantic sector around mid-month. Compare with the last four runs for this timescale:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010100_336.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010112_324.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010200_312.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010212_300.

The one thing that does keep coming up, though, is stronger troughing than normal to our east. That would ensure we're never far away from a cold northerly plunge. All that's needed is good Atlantic amplification at the right time in the cycle. Certainly not miles off.

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

Whos ready for the next round of "pin the tail on the Donkey"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

ICON getting things up and running and looking good

77A3B19D-7DFB-4D7F-97F2-F814E1102773.thumb.png.9722f3535683ac8c96ec6d92dce70c53.png

Shortwave heading off South East

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

Due to the SSW cooling the tropical stratosphere, the amplification should prove plenty sufficient to do what we need, regardless of what the RMM plots show - those will be confused by some Rossby wave interaction in the week ahead. That's what's causing the strange looping around in the plots. In any case, we have the surging AAM and GWO movement through P5-P6 working in favour of next week's developments so that should provide some entertainment while we wait for the subsequent SSW-MJO-GWO interactions to be sorted out.

With respect to which - ECM/EPS' traversal toward P3/4 contradicts theoretical expectation so I'm expecting EPS to be a bit behind on developments for the 2nd half of the month. Big assumptions involved I know... it's never easy!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now ,then back to cold nailed again etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

I thought we were here to discuss the model runs not provide an impartial forecast for the public. There are plenty of other places for people to get that if they want it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

This is getting ridiculous now!!the icon upgrades the atlantic ridge big time!!surely just surely gfs and especially ukmo gota upgrade now!!

If only it was that simple lol.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

iconnh-0-114.png?03-12

 

What we are seeing is the Scandi trough being sharpened (further West) which can only aid Atlantic amplification, northerly flow and cold prospects further ahead.

If it is recreated across the output then we could really be on our way.

 

00z/12z comparison

iconnh-0-120.png?03-12iconnh-0-132.png?01-00

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Beautiful Atlantic ridge at 120 hours. This is a proper upgrade!

Excellent news keep them upgrades coming .  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Yup. Icon looking excellent, more amplification towards Greenland, good start to the 12z runs.

iconeu-0-114.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Popular Post
Posted

icon-0-132.png?03-00 icon-0-120.png?03-12

I must admit that even knowing the modelling shortfalls, the pace and close range of these changes has surprised me. It appears (pending other model support) that the extratropical component of the changes relating to the MJO movement and AAM surge has been overlooked by an exceptionally large margin.

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

The ICON at day 5 is looking very nice, crazy how much things are changing,  now can the UKMO and GFS continue the upgrades 

Screenshot_20190103-152303.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mizzle Community Regular

Mizzle

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
Posted
35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now ,then back to cold nailed again etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

I am a relative newcomer and this forum has taught me a lot. However, I have also learned that the vagaries of the weather forecasting can be likened to baking a fruit cake: we know the ingredients, understand the chemical interrelationships and have a broad grasp of the physics and motion dynamics.  Through deep understanding of all elements involved it should theoretically be possible to calculate the exact locations of all the raisins in the end result. And yet oddly, it seems simultaneously impossible to do so.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted

Given the fluctuations and uncertainties in the medium to long term outlook I'm just going to concentrate on the model output to T120. As long as it continues to look as good as the ICON 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

I think I can officially say that ICON is an upgrade. Cold air digging south, lots of snow showers around particularly in the north and east too.

iconeu-0-141.png

iconeu-1-141.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Good luck sinking that High! Should be a Perfectly placed low to our South!

730F45F8-B0DF-44AD-859C-F30BDAA21AAA.thumb.png.597a14533f8a1628fd36486c092ed8e6.png

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted

Don't think these have been posted yet today. ECM Op 850's sitting on or above the mean initially then tracking toward the colder end of the suite after Jan 8th. Be interesting to see whether tonight's ensemble trend colder still as indicated by GFS/ICON so far today. Cool, cold, or winter proper? Still much to be decided I feel.

Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 15.19.52.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

iconnh-0-165.png?03-00 iconnh-0-153.png?03-12

A stronger and more helpfully-positioned Arctic High too. Aside from that it's become a faster, slightly more potent version of the 00z in our sector.

Cached thumbnails being a pain again - click to be sure of seeing the right chart.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
13 minutes ago, shaky said:

This is getting ridiculous now!!the icon upgrades the atlantic ridge big time!!surely just surely gfs and especially ukmo gota upgrade now!!

6/10 on the shaky exclamiometer .....not bad, definite potential there.....if you hit an 8 on the next post then I reckon cold and snow's a shoe in! 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...