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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

FYI

Great news from michael ventrice in strat thread..

Very happy with this mornings developments..

Good to go..

Was it the tweet about the PV not rebounding??

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
34 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Snow showers for the north and east with snow flurries further inland I’ll take that!

Nice to see that even the London mild oasis gets a covering.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

FYI

Great news from michael ventrice in strat thread..

Very happy with this mornings developments..

Good to go..

Yes good chart, its a shame Instantweathermaps is down as we cannot compare it with any of the last 3 GFS runs, you can still view the 30mb chart on Netweather though, the 0z GFS looked like a strong dwnwelling from 10mb to 30mb and a very good 384 chart so longjevity as well. indicative of a late Jan Easterly (assuming the downwelling continues).

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

What does it mean rebounding

If I’m reading it right, it means the PV will not return  back to it strength and position 

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
12 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Steve (or anyone else)

Would you think the changes in some of these parts are related to the downwelling from the SSW or more related to the MJO

Cheers

What I see is the ongoing effect of what is causing the SSW. Not the after effect of the SSW. That is yet to come Imo. The SSW from earlier this year was official from the 12th of Feb I think and the AO trending largely negative from the 20th of Feb onwards. I think the 10 days to 2 weeks rule of thumb is a good guide for trop effect from SSW. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
48 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

Guess who has a week long intensive driving course next week.

If it's any consolation, I started driving lessons in December 2009... yeah.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
52 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

Guess who has a week long intensive driving course next week.

As long as you have winter tyres you should be fine, it would be easier really as everyone either stays at home or is super cautious 

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MVH also making very positive noises about significant EAMT ongoing...

Feeling much more optimistic this morning..

 

Just what @Bring Back1962-63 Has been eluding to in his past few posts??

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Well after a widespread frost this morning under clear skies last night and a strong high pressure not moving much, I wasn't expecting to see 11-12C daytime highs here on the south coast of Wales for a while but on Sunday & Monday that's what could happen, turning wetter and breezier too though by then for all with gales possible towards the north 

image.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

That is up a mountain-!

 

But if you want to talk about Italy did you know it holds the world record for the most snow in 24 hours - beating canada & America !

100 inches in 24 hours lake effect snow.

A71D82F5-AD7B-498C-914B-11232E10DCA1.thumb.png.1e54f1129861fc644d100ece8d5c9c2a.png

 

 

Looks like Central/Southern Italy will get one of its regular dumpings in the next 48 hours. 

The North Sea could be just as good as the Adriatic for that good old lake effect, hopefully our time will come soon.:oldsmile:

48-780IT.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MVH also making very positive noises about significant EAMT ongoing...

Feeling much more optimistic this morning..

 

Yes, this is the significant factor right now Imo. Its predicted to trend as a -ve MT event in the next week which has the downstream effect of a weaker jet stream causing splits in the flow, more troughs / ridges to appear, more blocking pattern - -ve AO

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

GEFS running out slowly but much-improved +144 on the 06z, building on upgrades already identified...

image.thumb.png.5d173c4672f9058037dfdf06feb3bfa9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

FV3 looking good at T+156, -8 to -9C uppers should even be okay, by the coast...

image.thumb.png.8727dcc3e873ced5599f5c3b3978dffa.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

EC Ensembles show there is definitely scope for it to be colder next week. Det sitting roughly in the middle of its members & it wasn’t exactly a mild run!

D836DE8E-90EC-4DC8-BA20-0526D48E4D9B.thumb.gif.aa9005ebdbaab210df43d427b2565303.gif

Good news is it was certainly no outlier!

ps why is it the minute a Tweet is put in here my phone goes awol! Bloody annoying! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Well after a widespread frost this morning under clear skies last night and a strong high pressure not moving much, I wasn't expecting to see 11-12C daytime highs here on the south coast of Wales for a while but on Sunday & Monday that's what could happen, turning wetter and breezier too though by then for all with gales possible towards the north 

image.jpeg

If the models are anywhere near to being right don’t expect those temperatures to last very long 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

FV3 looking good at T+156, -8 to -9C uppers should even be okay, by the coast...

image.thumb.png.8727dcc3e873ced5599f5c3b3978dffa.png

Unfortunately the high sinks thereafter...  

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looks like Central/Southern Italy will get one of its regular dumpings in the next 48 hours. 

The North Sea could be just as good as the Adriatic for that good old lake effect, hopefully our time will come soon.:oldsmile:

48-780IT.gif

Mount Vesuvious right now!

 

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/campania/napoli/vesuvio.html

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Since the splitting of the energy over the Atlantic now appears to be resolved (more or less), the next hurdle is whether we can get lower heights dropping from Svalbard through Scandinavia and phasing with the low heights over mainland Europe to help prevent the block sinking. The GFS managed this, but the Para hasn't.

Looking through the GEFS at T138, some of them achieve this and some don't.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=138

 

 

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