The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Wildswimmer Pete]

1 hour ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Although some of the coldest and snowiest have come after a mild December.. 1947 and 1963 for example.. 

 

December 1962 wasn't mild, at least here in NW England.  We saw the first snow showers arrive in mid-December with lying snow during Christmas Day and Boxing Day '62.  This is from actual experience.

Autumn '62 was very mild with the first frosts occurring in late November.

Edited January 2, 2019 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Eastnorthwest]

Evening all and firstly may I say ,and the beat s still on or maybe the beast

Secondly the pendulum models still goes on as they struggle to any real consistency apart from one more than the others but as I have said before come the weekend the fog hopefully will begin to lift and show us what we want to see being forecast for the middle of the month,blocking ,AO at -5, bringing sub zero temps ,snow and no David bett mentioning it's going to be mild he he 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

It did all this wobbling back in February last year so it's no surprise that it will happen again this year.

The only wobbling they did wrt the strat modelling was in FI before the SSW was nailed on and the details were more certain, it was rock solid strat wise after that, it had a few wobbles wrt timing its impact on the trop but once it latched onto roughly the right timeline, the only wobble on the Easterly was one thursday night about a week and a half before the event where a good number of op runs had it much further south as one of those that few snow grains for the SE as the high to far south, recovered by the friday night and ens were rock solid from there on in on the transition to Easterly winds although ropey wrt length of cold spell.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Essexfish said:

I can see your point but can also remember many occasions when models have struggled much beyond day 4.

Not in the strat.

[Rocheydub]

13 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

It did all this wobbling back in February last year so it's no surprise that it will happen again this year.

Spot on. Far from an expert, but I've been through about 7/8 SSW's as a weather enthusiast and they all react the same with trop responses on the NWP.

[Essexfish]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not in the strat.

Ok, fair enough. 

Lets see where we are at this time next week I guess. 

Pub run first though.

[Eastnorthwest]

Pendulum models ,it happens every winter,where would the fun be in models being spot on in every run,

Conversation would be everyone agreeing then having nothing else to talk about like weather forums in the summertime 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The only wobbling they did wrt the strat modelling was in FI before the SSW was nailed on and the details were more certain, it was rock solid strat wise after that, it had a few wobbles wrt timing its impact on the trop but once it latched onto roughly the right timeline, the only wobble on the Easterly was one thursday night about a week and a half before the event where a good number of op runs had it much further south as one of those that few snow grains for the SE as the high to far south, recovered by the friday night and ens were rock solid from there on in on the transition to Easterly winds although ropey wrt length of cold spell.

 

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not in the strat.

If you keep on saying it, eventually people will believe you .....the narrative is that ‘don’t worry, the models are struggling because of the reversal’.....then when the reversal has begun.... ‘don’t worry, the models are struggling because of the split’..... 

all I know is that last February, they didn’t really struggle once the reversal was within four/five days. They picked a very amplified solution, run to run though the actual solution that verified was a few days behind initial predictions and the actual NH split wasn’t too well modelled .... we are a million miles from being in that situation and we have already passed the onset of reversal at 10hpa. 

the nwp is split between gefs/gems and eps. Today, the gefs have moderated their neg AO somewhat but the eps 12z has picked a bigger neg spread than previous output (despite the mean going positive later on). 

It’s clearly a tricky situation and we await some consistency on the ops although the extended ens output is reasonably consistent within each model suite, just not between the euro and the n Americans ..... prob MJO/ combo of downwelling wave timing induced ...fwiw, the met office 15/30 dayer is probably there or thereabouts ......I suspect the change to much colder could be anytime post mid  month .......

 

[BleakMidwinter]

48 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

A few tweets i've read are from a phd student. Yes, a student who is quoting from papers in this field. Great .....read and learn, but his experience is limited, at the moment. 

 

Definitely agreeing with, and applauding, your comments re not believing everything, but just wanted to say - some of us did our PhDs in our 40s whilst we were working as senior figures in our discipline...!  

Not all PhD students are 23-year-old novices straight out of undergraduate degrees! 

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Definitely agreeing with, and applauding, your comments re not believing everything, but just wanted to say - some of us did our PhDs in our 40s whilst we were working as senior figures in our discipline...!  

Not all PhD students are 23-year-old novices straight out of undergraduate degrees! 

Fine.

His website is full of other people's work.

[SMU]

Icon reinforces the thought process with a more amplified flow, note tge first trough sliding more SE now

12z 126 had the main area of PVA over NW iceland

18z 120 has a more NW > SE allignment with the core energy SE of Iceland -

Allowing more amplification to the West

[Scandinavian High.]

Mid next week we go in to a northerly for a time but where is high going  south or north east long range forecast just said we go back in to westerly are they right 

er

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Icon reinforces the thought process with a more amplified flow, note tge first trough sliding more SE now

12z 126 had the main area of PVA over NW iceland

18z 120 has a more NW > SE allignment with the core energy SE of Iceland -

Allowing more amplification to the West

Keener on the wave from the n Pacific day 4/5  on this run (as per ec and Ukmo) 

the ec op was neg AO as per yesterday’s run till the wave hit the vortex straddled Asia to Canada, holding it over the pole  .....that was day 8 ..... it may not be like that come verification ....... another variable to throw in there 

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Fine.

His website is full of other people's work.

Evening! No point squabbling about who has got phds in weather or whatever , the Weather remains a Mystery and will always do so...! Looks like a shot of something unsettled early next week....Something of note , the Airpressure tonight over Evesham in Worcestershire is a rare 1045mbs !!!

[blizzard81]

Not much joy to behold in the ecm ext ens. Apart from that one straggler.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not much joy to behold in the ecm ext ens. Apart from that one straggler.

Control looks good

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Control looks good

But is the control run ever going to verify lol.

[Greggers]

The ECM will come up with the goods I can feel it in my bones

[weirpig]

Bit of a difference on the 18z already  step towards the euros?.

Edited January 2, 2019 by weirpig

[shaky]

Dont think the gfs has a foggiest of whats going on!!look at the difference at 120 hours across iceland!!

[The Eagle]

More like the UKMO and ECM alright but probably everything a bit further east than the aforementioned so far. 

[Yorkshirepudding]

1 hour ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

December 1962 wasn't mild, at least here in NW England.  We saw the first snow showers arrive in mid-December with lying snow during Christmas Day and Boxing Day '62.  This is from actual experience.

Autumn '62 was very mild with the first frosts occurring in late November.

Apologies for the 62-63 I miss read that information I wasn’t around then..however I still stand by what I said some of the coldest come from mild Decembers. 

My point was more about agreeing that there’s plenty of potential and scope with everything going on with the polar vortex In the atmosphere and the SSW it’s very interesting watching the models and reading all of comments and thoughts. In what could be an exciting time for cold/snow lovers...

Edited January 2, 2019 by Yorkshirepudding

[weirpig]

All three at 144h

[nick sussex]

Some wild swings in today’s  GFS runs both with the shortwave and the pattern to the ne .

Good news is that it’s upstream pattern on the GFS 18 hrs run is trending towards the Euros and the same with the shortwave .

Still too early though to be sure of getting over the first hurdle .

Decision day tomorrow !

Edited January 2, 2019 by nick sussex

[Weathizard]

Step in the Right direction at day 7