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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Excellent UKMO

UN144-21.GIF?02-16

All down to the how the models are handling the shortwave lows S of Greenland early in the runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

ICON looks interesting at 180, squeeze on from both sides.

7A522C92-CF83-4E98-9499-360B38E07D39.png

Ooh if we could get that high to break away as both lows from the west and the East put pressure on it. Then it would be fun and games and surely lead to battleground scenarios. Big improvement so far. But with the models being so volatile its hard to belive anything we see even in the So called reliable time frame.

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

The charts are all over the place. What is one to tell my mates when they ask whether the UK will see snow? BBC and other sites going with no but yes to Europe. I thought that there was a great deal of uncertainty around our island or do we need to just wait and see. Any input would be appreciated

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Excellent UKMO

UN144-21.GIF?02-16

All down to the how the models are handling the shortwave lows S of Greenland early in the runs.

Whilst it offers a decent ridge, said ridge could just as easily move back across us and put us back to square one. In fact I would say that was more likely than a link up with the forming Arctic high. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Whilst it offers a decent ridge, said ridge could just as easily move back across us and put us back to square one. In fact I would say that was more likely than a link up with the forming Arctic high. 

Step in the right direction though MS, that’s all we can hope for at this range with the serious volatility at the moment, it’s the first decent UKMO in a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Think this will be another close but no cigar run, but nice improvements early on. UKMO and GFS at day 6, fairly similar actually given current volatility.

65776918-0656-4470-8F13-7E139C537A18.gif

C9674E47-BCC6-4315-A3E6-C97DDA859D09.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Whilst it offers a decent ridge, said ridge could just as easily move back across us and put us back to square one. In fact I would say that was more likely than a link up with the forming Arctic high. 

Posted in Strat thread the other day was a report by severe-weather.eu - it was interpreting cold/snow effects of the SSW more for central/eastern Europe - so your view seems to tie in with that report. UK to stay cold but bone dry....maybe.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Posted in Strat thread the other day was a report by severe-weather.eu - it was interpreting cold/snow effects of the SSW more for central/eastern Europe - so your view seems to tie in with that report.

But that's basically what the models are showing

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Posted in Strat thread the other day was a report by severe-weather.eu - it was interpreting cold/snow effects of the SSW more for central/eastern Europe - so your view seems to tie in with that report.

That’s what’s happening this week and next. It’s mid month onwards that the interest for us lies 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That’s what’s happening this week and next. It’s mid month onwards that the interest for us lies 

Yep. But that report is referring to effects of the SSW - so 2 weeks away from now? If it proves to be correct in its opinion then our resident HP will stay over or v close to UK right thru to end Jan. Dry and cold(ish).

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

Some weak-moderate wave 2 (Azores high-pressure) activity is also seen. It could push the robust AC ridge more towards the north and into the area around Iceland or Greenland. Its still a "waiting game". I hope of course for the best.

ecmwfzm_ha2_f144.thumb.gif.7b1c08723298e4f139ba341725ea3ac2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
53 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Now if we could just improve over the N Atlantic area and rid of any energy from low heights south of Greenland and replace it with ridging, then I’m sure we’d be headed into the deep freeze by mid-month.

However, a lot of unknowns, particularly IMO N Atlantic / NAO sector, which is at the peril of possible deepening vortex over NE Canada, perhaps in response to daughter Strat vortex from the SPV split here, creating too much energy over the sector next 10-15 days, hence MO westerlies mid-month and delay to cold/wintry wx until later in month. We’ll see, a lot of uncertainty with the trop response to the SSW over coming days still to be resolved ...

Higher pressure anomalies across that sector of North America tends to increase chances of cold zonality for the British Isles if the Atlantic jet stream is on the go.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

GEM is pretty grim as well. Starting to understand why the meto have delayed any possible cold spell again ....

3486A8C4-917F-46A2-8C93-89B4F4D8318E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful GFS Op so far out to day 10 and fits in well with Met Office musings, flat as a pancake across the Atlantic.....

image.thumb.png.d17d393bcb950e688fac731e1f81390a.png

The last line is the problem MS, and has been all through Nov/Dec generally.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

If there’s such large changes at day 5/6 why bother worrying about the later stages of the run. UKMO looks nice, the trend within day 6/7 has been the Atlantic low hitting a wall and sending some energy through sliding round, a synoptic the GFS imparticular struggles with.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Weathizard said:

If there’s such large changes at day 5/6 why bother worrying about the later stages of the run. UKMO looks nice, the trend within day 6/7 has been the Atlantic low hitting a wall and sending some energy through sliding round, a synoptic the GFS imparticular struggles with.

UKMO is better at 144 than GFS - in reality though its a mid Atlantic high ..

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