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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Here we are then a fresh new thread for the ongoing cold hunt.

This week at least promises to be somewhat colder with frosts but we are still looking over the horizon for the real deal so the hunt continues.

Currently this is the situation at T96hrs from GFS 06z

1534419396_962.thumb.png.95e061ae6f03631c12eca2899b2170fc.png
 

The persistent high over the UK currently giving the quiet and chilly weather.What will happen to the NH pattern in the next few weeks is keeping everyone wondering as we wait to see what effects the current Stratosphere warming will bring to our small part of the world.

Whilst a more relaxed exchange of views is acceptable please keep posts friendly,respectful and related to model outputs

 

Don't want to hunt for cold?
If you'd prefer a slower paced, more general (not cold slanted) model discussion, please head over to the general thread here.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
GFS
GFS FV3 (Para)
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data

The 12z charts will be rolling out soon so on we go. 🙂

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Posted (edited)

An absolute horrendous start to the 12z icon!!flat as a pancake and the high has gone into europe compared to this mornings run when it had it over the uk!!

And just as i say that the 144 hour chart wants to build a wedge of heights into the pole!!low more amplified across eastern us aswell!!its a start i guess!

Edited by shaky

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

An absolute horrendous start to the 12z icon!!flat as a pancake and the high has gone into europe compared to this mornings run when it had it over the uk!!

icon-5-150.png?02-12 12Z

 

icon-5-162.png0Z

 

Not sure what you are seeing TBH

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The only downside to the ICON 12z really is the lack of deep cold to tap into to our East

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Posted (edited)

icon-0-180.png?02-12

Easterly might not be far away from that position.
iconeu-5-180.png?02-12

Loop back on the Jet is helping

Edited by frosty ground

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Icon looking more likely to head into the" easterly" area with the 12z run imo.Yet again tho big changes over short periods?

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Just now, swfc said:

Icon looking more likely to head into the" easterly" area with the 12z run imo.Yet again tho big changes over short periods?

To be expected at the moment.  Total chaos in the models for the foreseeable future until the interaction between trop, strat and MJO starts to resolve.  Expect huge upgrades, downgrades and OMFG charts for a while yet 🙂

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18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A couple of positive charts to get the new thread up and running.....

image.thumb.png.05a6a136037e9c4de5405b139747f830.png SSW well underway

 

 

Is that chart correct??, I am sure we had a chart in the last 2 days showing an even higher climb - up to -20 already...

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Is that chart correct??, I am sure we had a chart in the last 2 days showing an even higher climb - up to -20 already...

that chart is at 30hpa, the chart you saw will have been at 10hpa, which looks to have peaked for now.

image.thumb.png.fa34c9b549a9834529596acbf7013456.png

Edited by karlos1983
typo

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20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A couple of positive charts to get the new thread up and running.....

image.thumb.png.05a6a136037e9c4de5405b139747f830.png SSW well underway

image.thumb.png.7ae5557bfc7f8646122390cc1c396903.png And PV is split at 30hpa

Will we get a favourable trop response? And how long will we have to wait?

Got to love that near vertical line, runs almost perfectly parallel with the y-axis it is spiking so much.

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Afternoon all 🙂

Hyperbolic and inaccurate over-reaction to one run from one model notwithstanding, we have come a long way in a few days.

I've always reckoned on 2 1/2-3 weeks from stratospheric split to significant tropospheric response so we remain on track for a shift soon after mid month.

Some concerns about downwelling in the stratospheric thread and we may need some help from other factors - the problem is it's not March and we won't destroy the PV with a displacement/split in one go. It's not midwinter and the PV can reform but it will remain weak compared to other years and vulnerable to later warmings.

The two main routes to a colder incursion are explored in both the 06Z OP and Parallel output - the OP pulls the HP far enough west to allow the trough to drop down from the NW (this is an option we've seen from GFS OP quite a lot) while Parallel raises heights from the NW - both end up with a cold unstable and snowy regime from between NNW and NE.

I don't rule out the possibility the stronger Canadian vortex lobe will prevent the height rises to the NW but the PV will be warmer and weaker so the chance of height rises to the NE IF the lobe can be shunted back west (the OP goes down that road at the very end of FI) but the 06Z Parallel solution would be the most suitable for cold with the PV split apart.,

To be honest, I don't know - we're in the game and have a decent hand. Whether it's a winning hand who knows - one thing's for certain we'll know more in a week.

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2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Is that chart correct??, I am sure we had a chart in the last 2 days showing an even higher climb - up to -20 already...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=3.67,88.60,327/loc=-158.067,89.441 at 10 hpa it's -34C post warming ( got much higher earlier) and at 70 hpa it's ~-53C, so that's feasible...

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Posted (edited)

Now if we could just improve over the N Atlantic area and rid of any energy from low heights south of Greenland and replace it with ridging, then I’m sure we’d be headed into the deep freeze by mid-month.

However, a lot of unknowns, particularly IMO N Atlantic / NAO sector, which is at the peril of possible deepening vortex over NE Canada, perhaps in response to daughter Strat vortex from the SPV split here, creating too much energy over the sector next 10-15 days, hence MO westerlies mid-month and delay to cold/wintry wx until later in month. We’ll see, a lot of uncertainty with the trop response to the SSW over coming days still to be resolved ...

Edited by Nick F

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From @Had Worse I (we) miss the swingometer.  Please can we have an update please.

It'll be back next week 🙂 I'm handing in my PhD thesis on Friday so unfortunately haven't had much time to look at the models. Hopefully when its done we can see some beasts start popping up in FI 😄 

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4 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Hi to all here and a happy new year. My favourite weather website for many years, just decided to join (and hopefully in the right time after a horrendous mild December). I have decent knowledge in analysing weather models and even though English is not my native language I'll try to be as useful as I can. 

Hopefully we will start seeing some better runs in the next 2-3 days. I expect the Azores high to gradually move into central Atlantic. I have no doubt that the cold pool will remain to our NE and intensify so let's hope the right heights will build for the so much needed cold here. 

Welcome to the forum E of S,it would be useful if you put your location in your avatar.Cheers🙂

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Posted (edited)

Well the gfs 12z has multiple ridges at a 102 hrs.quite incredible really across the atlantic and scandinavia????

Edited by swfc

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Better ukmo day 6 - a reversal wave of sorts headed into the pole day 6 ....... could have been an interesting day 7/8 if it existed .....

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