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THE FERREL CELL MESSING UP BRITAIN'S WINTER- AGAIN


iapennell

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Setting-up a quantum interrupter field, between Earth and Sol, ought to do the trick...If the 'grid' is fitted with adjustable wavelength attenuators, incoming solar radiation can be modified as required?

And all that can be achieved whilst listening to Vogon poetry!

I'll bring wet towels and beer Ed

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

We could of course keep pumping loads of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere thereby melting all arctic sea ice and disrupting the gulf stream that way. Of course that would be a mad course of action. Oh, wait a minute...………….

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
On 16/02/2019 at 21:01, lassie23 said:

good call when you said the SSW will be a non-event. 

Yes, once again he got it right. I still don't understand why net weather hasn't asked Ian to write their winter forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
34 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, once again he got it right. I still don't understand why net weather hasn't asked Ian to write their winter forecasts.

Most accurate winter forecaster on the site, so that would be a good idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Most accurate winter forecaster on the site, so that would be a good idea.

I didn't see any forecast as such. Where's the predictions for each month?

Edit: He went for 5.2C for January and 100mm. 4.0C and 47mm final figures in January CET EWP prediction thread.

 

I could have said, "mostly mild, odd wintry episode, some wet and dry spells"

Amazing how acurrate you can become, the vaguer you are.

 

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
17 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I didn't see any forecast as such. Where's the predictions for each month?

I could have said, "mostly mild, odd wintry episode, some wet and dry spells"

Amazing how acurrate you can become, the vaguer you are.

 

still more accurate than anyone else which doesn't say much, but he was spot on about the SSW. I'm comparing him to net weather winter forecasts and others with their front-loaded backloaded heavy loaded winter lol. October Fog Index was best:oldwink:

Edited by lassie23
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
54 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I didn't see any forecast as such. Where's the predictions for each month?

Edit: He went for 5.2C for January and 100mm. 4.0C and 47mm final figures in January CET EWP prediction thread.

 

I could have said, "mostly mild, odd wintry episode, some wet and dry spells"

Amazing how acurrate you can become, the vaguer you are.

 

Whenever someone praises Ian you come out of the woodwork to criticise him and you have done this year after year! His forecast was much better than net weather’s or any other that I have seen. His call on the SSW is commendable because he was the only one who said that it wouldn’t lead to cold weather for the UK. At the time, the ECM long range was showing northern blocking galore and easterlies for the UK. Even the met office kept predicting easterlies and northeasterlies since late December, only to gradually push them back and eventually cancel them altogether.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, karyo said:

Whenever someone praises Ian you come out of the woodwork to criticise him and you have done this year after year! His forecast was much better than net weather’s or any other that I have seen. His call on the SSW is commendable because he was the only one who said that it wouldn’t lead to cold weather for the UK. At the time, the ECM long range was showing northern blocking galore and easterlies for the UK. Even the met office kept predicting easterlies and northeasterlies since late December, only to gradually push them back and eventually cancel them altogether.

Ian didn’t buy into the idea of a front loaded winter in 2016/17, either, going against most other forecasts (including the metoffice) and was correct to do so.  His forecast for last winter was pretty good, too.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

Indeed. Always rated Ian as a top forecaster. About time some on here took note of his ability. He was adamant this Winter was going to be a fail for cold & he was spot on. It's been bloody poor! 

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i see Mr.P has far less likes and very few followers compared to the buffoons who sit on their throne ..courting the masses in the hunt for cold thread..where people wait with bated breath on their every post..telling them to ignore the models as cold is just around the corner and watch the models backtrack..because the NH set up is different this year..but the models are proved right 90% of the time..whilst they spout the same old BS day after day..then disappear when spring arrives only to return in October to start the same circus all over again.

You would think by now that those posters who follow the buffoons and hang on to every wrong word they say would have noticed this pattern by now as it's been going on for years and would ignore them by now:oops: 

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
16 hours ago, karyo said:

Whenever someone praises Ian you come out of the woodwork to criticise him and you have done this year after year! His forecast was much better than net weather’s or any other that I have seen. His call on the SSW is commendable because he was the only one who said that it wouldn’t lead to cold weather for the UK. At the time, the ECM long range was showing northern blocking galore and easterlies for the UK. Even the met office kept predicting easterlies and northeasterlies since late December, only to gradually push them back and eventually cancel them altogether.

When i mentioned that we shouldn't get too excited about the SSW event because Ian was saying it wouldn't enhance our cold weather chances this year, guess who responded first lol

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
5 hours ago, lassie23 said:

When i mentioned that we shouldn't get too excited about the SSW event because Ian was saying it wouldn't enhance our cold weather chances this year, guess who responded first lol

I don't know, who?...but yes fully concur with what cheeky_monkey. Remember the ridicule I received back in late January when I said it looks like the models were picking up on a mild south westerly signal at day 9/10 and posters replied 'well this is the hunt for cold thread' and other silly remarks yet it's a completely different story with some who have a cold bias who frequently post in there and have been to put it 'mildly' wide of the mark when it's come down to day zero!

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

When i mentioned that we shouldn't get too excited about the SSW event because Ian was saying it wouldn't enhance our cold weather chances this year, guess who responded first lol

Is it the lovely poster that criticised Ian just yesterday? Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Lets face it, you have a 75% chance of being right if you call an above average winter in the UK since the mid 1980s..

And TBH 1in4 cold might be generous!

The world is warming, unless your called Donald.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets face it, you have a 75% chance of being right if you call an above average winter in the UK since the mid 1980s..

And TBH 1in4 cold might be generous!

The world is warming, unless your called Donald.

we can hopefully still get sleet though

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
15 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets face it, you have a 75% chance of being right if you call an above average winter in the UK since the mid 1980s..

And TBH 1in4 cold might be generous!

The world is warming, unless your called Donald.

But if he seems a mild winter should he be discounted because he is more likely to be correct? At least he is not saying that the winter or a winter month will be cold just to get the likes like some other posters are doing on net weather. Then they disappear when the forecast goes horribly wrong. 

I agree about the warming climate though, there is no question that cold winters are becoming more and more rare. 

Edited by karyo
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
On 19/02/2019 at 18:37, northwestsnow said:

Lets face it, you have a 75% chance of being right if you call an above average winter in the UK since the mid 1980s..

And TBH 1in4 cold might be generous!

The world is warming, unless your called Donald.

Particularly NW England .  The Middle East...even the Sahara has more snow than the U.K.!!! I think this cold blob in the Atlantic is a problem for us.  

I agree that Ian has called it well

 

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
22 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Particularly NW England .  The Middle East...even the Sahara has more snow than the U.K.!!! I think this cold blob in the Atlantic is a problem for us.  

I agree that Ian has called it well

 

 

BFTP 

Im not sure what is driving these crap winters for us fred..

Perhaps the Atlantic is a bigger problem than we realized?

Of course there have been exceptions but its been pretty much 1 way traffic for the last 30 odd years, the number of above average winter months must be waaaaaaay up on any colder ones.

If we took a sample of dec jan feb since 1988 i would wager its 75% milder than average, we can disagree about the large teapot theory until the cows come home but its getting harder and harder for every mild winter to argue that something has not changed.

Maybe kevin or someone else has that sort of data to hand.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im not sure what is driving these crap winters for us fred..

Perhaps the Atlantic is a bigger problem than we realized?

Of course there have been exceptions but its been pretty much 1 way traffic for the last 30 odd years, the number of above average winter months must be waaaaaaay up on any colder ones.

If we took a sample of dec jan feb since 1988 i would wager its 75% milder than average, we can disagree about the large teapot theory until the cows come home but its getting harder and harder for every mild winter to argue that something has not changed.

Maybe kevin or someone else has that sort of data to hand.

 

Taking my location, and counting a winter within 0.2c of the 30 year mean as average, shows the following stats since 1987/88.

Milder than average 17

Average 6

Colder than average 8.

So, not 75% but nevertheless an impressive 55% milder than average, and only 26% colder than average. In fact if you lump together milder than average and average your 75% assumption is pretty much spot on. After all, how many people remember an average winter? 

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