Predictions for 2019?

[Weather-history]

So what are members weather predictions for 2019? Here's mine, total guesses.

Both January and February colder, drier than average with February the colder and snowier of the two. I am going for a really cold February, maybe the coldest since 1986.

March: the cold relaxes but still some wintriness, average rainfall

April: first spell of "summer warmth" for the year but also a switch around with winter making another appearance with the most notable April snow since 2008 or 2012, rather wet.

May: on the warm side but some wet spells.

June: poorest month of the summer, wettest, coolest, dullest of the three

July: improvement on June with more warmth, sunnier and drier

August: a buck from recent Augusts: dry, warm, sunny. Sadly yet another poor summer for thunderstorms for the area.

September: dry first half but wetter second half, a bit above average.

October: wet and stormy

November: not as wet and stormy as October with a drier spell late month.

December: a pretty anticyclonic month with fog being notable.

 

[IanR]

I think it impossible to predict outcomes for the year ahead to any accuracy , its all guess work, just a bit of fun

However, one area that we can easily predict to a high degree of accuracy is the lack of thunderstorms , we had one in 2018 and 2019 will again prove that they will be very thin on the ground , I will be optimistic though and predict  in this location we will get one again overhead , just the one though.   and maybe another day of a few distant rumbles, but thats being even more optimistic

[Lettucing Gutted]

2019 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "polar weakstream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "subtropical weakstream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "subtropical weakstream" merges with the last "polar weakstream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weakstream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2019 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5C

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2019 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.

Edited December 22, 2018 by Lettucing Gutted

[Rollo]

The winter of 2019 will go down as the coldest Jan and Feb for 100 years,March ,April and May as the wettest this century,thereafter it depends wether Mr Trump decides to blow us all up,hang on there is a pink elephant at the door.

Edited December 22, 2018 by Rollo
Spelling mistake

[Sunny76]

A repeat of 1980 will happen, after a very cold January. 

2019 will have a very poor summer, with more widespread thunderstorms.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Jan, westerlies to dominate, above avg temps

Feb, mostly Atlantic dominated, perhaps respite at the end, above avg temps

Mar, best chance of snow/cold, maybe easterlies at times, around avg temps

Apr, northerlies/easterlies to dominate, below avg temps

May, easterlies most of the month, wet in south, usual full sun in Scotland/Wales, perhaps above avg temps

June, start of low pressure, wet month, drier in the north, temps around avg

July, mostly westerlies, wetter north, drier south, avg temps

Aug, unsettled everywhere, below avg temps

Sept, summerier than Aug, sunniest month of 2019 in the south, above avg temps

0ct, summery at times, 20+ in south at times, wetter later

Nov, easterlies at times, mostly unsettled, avg temps

Dec, dominated by the Atlantic, temps above avg

[LetItSnow!]

Let's see, let me polish my crystal ball... 

January: A cold/very cold month with a spell of bitterly cold easterlies around mid-month.Less cold second-half and very unsettled. An rare month that's wet but also cold. 1.0-2.5

February: Another spell of severe cold in the first-half with heavy snow and sub-zero daytime maxima...lovely! Less cold second-half similar to January.

2.0-3.0

March: Changeable. A mild first-half but then turning much colder later. 5.5-6.0

April: Warm but unusually also wet and unsettled. Notable warm spell around the 17th. 9.0-10.0

May: In contrast a very dull, cool and wet May. Coldest since 1996. 9.5-10.0

June: Mostly anticyclonic and pleasantly warm but not exceptionally so. 14.0-14.5

July: Exceptionally wet and dull month but perhaps saved by a heatwave later on. 14.0-15.0

August: The warmest month of the summer but still changeable and wet at times. Some widespread thundery spells. 15.5-16.0

September: Warm but unsettled. 14.0-15.0

October: Very mild October but still unsettled at times. 11.5-12.0

November: A very changeable November with spells of both cold and mild. Seasonable. 6.0-6.5

December: Mild, wet and windy. 5.5-6.0

[BruenSryan]

January - Fairly chilly and blocked. Outside chance of some severe cold or wintry weather if teleconnections line up right but not thinking too highly of that. An unremarkable cool month with a lot of dry weather especially in the north. CET around 3.9c.

February - A rather cold month with a relatively significant deviation below average by modern standards but not outstanding in the historical record by any means. A wetter month as the Atlantic jet stream powers up somewhat but still on a southerly track overall. CET around 2.9c.

March - A delayed start to the Spring similar to 2018 but perhaps not as snowy with a lot of damp weather. Quite forgettable on the whole. CET around 5.1c.

April - An average month with westerly winds being the dominant feature resulting in a showery pattern. A typical April. CET around 8.2c.

May - After a run of warm to very warm Mays for the past few years, an awful May with plenty of rain or cool conditions. Possibly the coolest May since 1996. CET around 9.9c.

June - A cool start to the Summer with a flat westerly regime bringing rather wet and dull conditions but not exceptionally so. CET around 13.3c. 

July - Risk of thunderstorms grow as the Summer becomes evident but not a classic Summer month. Fairly unremarkable especially by modern standards with mixed conditions. CET around 16.7c.

August - Summer finally arrives with a very warm August. The warmest since 1997 with dry conditions for many. CET around 18.4c.

September - The warmth continues with a warm September. Increasingly wet though as the westerlies become established after an initial very warm spell. CET around 15.3c.

October - October 2019 ends the run of dry Octobers in style with an exceptionally wet month. Autumn really showing its hand with multiple storms. A mild month though. CET around 11.9c.

November - Autumn continues with a wet November but the risk of cold at times as the jet stream meanders. Not a cold November however. CET around 7.7c.

December - An anticyclonic month but with a lot of Euro high influence, a really dull and mild month especially up north. CET around 6.4c.

[Mokidugway]

Knitting fog comes to mind , good work guys

[lassie23]

i have an outlandish prediction donald trump becomes us president 

[Mokidugway]

15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

i have an outlandish prediction donald trump becomes us president 

Again ?you're likley  correct  ,may on the other hand ..

[Mike Poole]

2019?  I'll have a think and get back to you!  Gut feeling though is more of the same unusual weather experienced in 2018...

[Summer of 95]

Jan 5.5C CET, E+W rain 100-150%, E+W Sun 80-120%

Mostly mild, wet and changeable with one or two northerly outbreaks bringing a bit of snow for a couple of days. Similar to Jan 2004

Feb 1.0 CET, rain 40-70%, Sun 90-120%

So, so overdue. Surely the odds are on it. A month with a mix of N'ly and E'ly airflows giving snow to all parts of the country at some point. Minima of -10 or below widely across central and southern parts, -15 recorded in a few places. When not snowing, frosty and sunny weather prevails.

Mar 5.0 CET, rain 90-110%, Sun 130-150%

A very mixed month with February's cold persisting at first, then returning a couple more times with warmer spells in between. Very sunny and lots of frost but temps reaching mid-teens widely in the warm spells.

April 10.5 CET, rain 30-50%, Sun 140-160%

Anticyclonic and settled with lots of warm sunny days, but sometimes cold at night. Rain only during short showery outbreaks.

May 11.2 CET, rain 50-150%, Sun 100-120%

A crazy month that starts with 25C+ widespread, then turns very cold with late frosts even in southern parts. Then the heat returns, but with thunder included. Some cracking storms which leave nowhere thunder-free this month, hail and the odd tornado as well. 

June 13.8 CET, rain 110-150%, Sun 65-100%

This year's stinker month. Low pressure constantly stuck near the UK, often positioned so it drags in cold N and NE winds. Plenty of rain with only the odd storm. Only a few western coastal spots get average sunshine and rain, and the east and southeast get the worst of it. Highest temp 24C in West Wales, most of the SE doesn't reach 21C at all.

July 16.7 CET, rain 90-130%, Sun 70-110%

Poor but not as poor as June. Washout first 10 days or so, then a spell of anticyclonic northerlies making it dry but cool (18-20 maxes) with the West sunniest. The anticyclone slowly edges east bringing more places into the sun, by the end it has reached all but the east of England. 25C reached in the Midlands, SW, Wales and W Scotland in the last few days.

August 19.0 CET, rain 10-60%, Sun 150-175%

Even more overdue than a cold February. After 2 months of "where the hell is summer" from SE-centric media, the anticyclone settles bang over Britain. Temps climb from 25, 28, to 30C over the first week, eventually it reaches temps not seen outside Londonland since 2006, even 1990. Then during the second week record highs are set at places as diverse as Newquay, Cardiff, Shawbury, Birmingham, Manchester, York and Glasgow; however due to the exact position of the anticyclone (centred now along an axis from Wales through the W Mids to NE England), and a cut off low over the Low Countries (who are having the kind of summer we had between 2007-2012), the SE corner is affected by breezes off the North Sea keeping temps pegged back to 23-26C with odd bits of cloud and fog. The heat gradually subsides but it remains warm and sunny, with isolated thunderstorms mainly in central and western areas.

Sept 17.5C CET, rain 40-80%, Sun 130-190%

And so it continues. Warmest Sept ever overall, with record September highs over 30C in much of the Midlands, north and west, however fog and sea breezes continue to affect southern N Sea areas. Continuing anticyclonic bar a couple of temporary Pm incursions sparking storms over NW England, Wales and W Mids. Starts to cool in last few days, but stays dry.

Oct 7.5 CET, rain 80-120%, Sun 120-140%

Wow, where did Autumn go? Coldest October for decades, again well overdue. With the Aug/Sept highs having moved to between Azores and Greenland over the last few days of Sept, northerlies come in. And stay all month, giving bright but cold conditions. Frosts occur regularly, with -5 minima in central England as early as the second week. Later on the northerlies become more showery, bringing thundery outbreaks, hail and even low-level snow to all areas. Most of the country doesn't exceed 15C all month.

Nov 3.0 CET Rain 50-80% Sun 95-130%

The early winter continues. October's northerlies dominate the first few days before an anticyclonic, sunny,  frosty 10 days or so. The high moves north joining an early Scandinavian one from mid-month, bringing easterlies with early snow; the most widespread in Nov since 1988 at least with only some west coasts missing out. Then comes a battleground scenario when the cold wins, heavy snow falls over the western and central parts and with the cold established it stays.

Dec -0.7 CET, rain 70-90%, Sun 80-120%

With snow cover persisting from Nov the easterly flow from Scandi/Russia is really set in. More snow comes over the North Sea on -15 uppers, reaching even the far west. The easterlies blow all month: sometimes snowy, sometimes dull but subfreezing, sometimes cold and sunny with low dew points keeping the snow cover intact. Compared to Dec 2010, 1995, 1981 it does not produce such extreme minima but is more consistently cold, with many inland parts seeing an air frost every day.

 

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

2019?  I'll have a think and get back to you!  Gut feeling though is more of the same unusual weather experienced in 2018...

A poor summer for next year I think. Just a feeling. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

WINTER

Just a continuation of the same pattern we've seen all December with LP not to far away. The SSW will bring zilch and do nothing for us as far as easterlies are concerned.  This winter will finish up being another disappointing snowless season

 

SPRING

March will record the first 20C of the year. a very above average Spring for sunshine with May bringing yet another above average month for Sunshine. Drought threats start to loom once more.

 

SUMMER

Cant really see it being a poor summer like some are suggesting. If brilliant summers always come in pairs then summer 2019 will either be:

(1)  a slightly less dryer version of 2018 with longer spells of wetter weather with LP close by and some furnace style southernly heatwave in July but any breakdown and the azores high will always fight back..  

(2)  An equally warm and dry summer as was 2018 with equally or bigger heat due HP rises from south or south east and not the west as in 2018. Drought conditions begin.

 

August will be once more be the poorest month of the three.

 

AUTUMN

HP dominated for most of the season with a slow return to normal Autumnal weather by November. Wet and windy days start becoming more frequent from end of  Septembers.

 

WINTER

The first major pre-Christmas snowfall since 2010. It will be a wow month for coldies.   But with a gradual return to wetter and windier weather by January 2020.

 

 

 

[Leo97t]

Pretty much guesswork from Jan onwards

 

January: very cold second half after average first half (cet 1.5)

February: Cold but not severe alternating between easterlies and anti cyclonic. Very dry (cet 2.0)

March: average (cet 6.5)

April (cet 9)

May (cet 12,5)

June (cet 15.5)

July (cet 18.5) 

August (cet 17.5)

September (cet 16.5)

October (cet 11.0)

November (cet 10)

December (cet 3)

[Earthshine]

Complete guess haha

January 5.2C

February 4.3C

March 8.9

April 11.3

May 15.1

June 15.8

July 18.6

August 21.2

September 18.9

October 14.6

November 9.5

December 10.0

 

[Isle of Harry]

Intriguing - Predictions for my location:

January 2019 (Sunny days interspersed with Cold and Mild snaps) 

I think for now we won't be seeing much in the way of snowy conditions (Until Feb), as the Atlantic lows are still dominant and will continue for the weeks ahead (I feel). We may see a change of conditions from 28th Jan to more wintry, if the stratospheric warming starts to take effect with more stronger easterlies forming.  

Mean Temperature: 5.3    (2018 Mean Temp: 6.6) 

February 2019  (Snowy conditions at first but turning Damp and Milder later) 

Snow showers begin to hit the eastern coastlines sending temperatures below freezing. Thawing begins around the 12th and milder, wetter conditions return from the Atlantic lows. 

Mean temperature 4.0 (2018 Mean Temp: 3.6) 

March 2019 (Fairly Wet but remaining cool) 

Wet days interspersed with a few bright days with daytime temperatures remaining low. 

Mean Temperature: 4.7 (2018 Mean Temp: 5.0)

April 2019 (Warmer but showery) 

April Showers dominate but temperatures begin to pick up mid-month - maybe our first 20C of the year. 

Mean Temperature: 11.8 (2018 Mean Temp: 11.3) 

May 2019 (Unseasonably cold but dry) 

Colder air moves down from the North developing morning frosts. Temperatures struggle to get higher than 18C - abnormal cold conditions throughout. 

Mean Temperature: 9.9 (2018 Mean Temp: 13.7)

June 2019 (Becoming warmer but wet) 

Atlantic lows become stronger bringing warmer but wetter conditions across the UK. The conditions become calmer and drier towards the end of the month. Temperatures remain below 25C with nights being cool. 

Mean Temperature: 15.2 (2018 Mean Temp: 16.7)

July 2019 (Hot and dry) 

Similar conditions to 2018, bright sunny days throughout with temperatures in the low 30's for several days but not as oppressive as 2018. Highest temperature 31.8C 

Mean Temperature: 19.5 (2018 Mean Temp: 20.7) 

August 2019 (Heatwave first week but becomes cooler and wetter towards the end). 

Sultry conditions to start with, as the jet stream continues to drag dry warm air up from the tropics. It becomes milder towards the middle of the second week (11th August) and the month ends with heavy rain and a dismal 15C on the 31st August. 

Mean Temperature: 18.6 (2018 Mean Temp: 18.8)

September 2019 (Unremarkable but very dry) 

Dry weather but overcast and foggy in the mornings. 

Mean Temperature: 16.5 (2018 Mean Temp: 16.0) 

October 2019 (Dry and mild but turns colder and stormier from the 19th)

Sunny and Bright in the first week with day temperatures not falling below 17C. The first cold snap begins around the 19th and temperatures plummet to 6-7C, snow flurries are reported across the hills. The weather becomes wetter and much windier with storms beginning to turn dangerous. Weather warnings are issued across the nation. 

Mean Temperature: 11.6 (2018 Mean Temp: 13.2) 

November 2019 (Wet in the south, snow in the North) 

Atlantic lows dominate again bringing wet mild conditions to the south (10-11C) but these clash with colder north easterly air from the north creating freezing rain and heavy snow across northern England and Scotland. Media frenzy. The south remains dismally mild and wet throughout with patchy foggy conditions.  

Mean Temperature: 9.5 (2018 Mean Temp: 9.4) 

December 2019 (Severe Frosts - Temperatures struggle to get above freezing) 

December is dominated by severe frosts across the country, with reports of several main rivers freezing over. Conditions however are typically dry with bright, crisp conditions throughout. Ice warnings are issued out incessantly by the Met Office.  Night temperatures plummet to -9C in the south and -20C across the highlands of Scotland. Heavy snow is reported for early January 2020.

Mean Temperature: 0.7 (2018 Mean Temp: 7.9) 

 

My predictions for this year - I hope I'm wrong in places as I do love surprises.

 

 

[Mokidugway]

I predict  it will get lighter towards the middle of the year then a slow progression  to darker conditions later

[CheesepuffScott]

A hot August for once

[Mike Poole]

Here's my prediction:

Jan - anti-cyclonic gloom gives way to cold about 21st of the month.

Feb - severe cold and snow.

Mar - less severe cold and snow.

Apr - still colder than average, snow mainly for northern folks.

May - sudden flip to warm, like last year in April, but a bit later.

June - hot and settled.

July - hot, humid and thundery.

August - cloudy and wet, well I'm hardly taking a risk with that one!

Sept - anticyclonic, warm and dry.

Oct - wet and windy.

Nov - wet and windy.

Dec - weak polar vortex, but reluctant to equate that to a front loaded winter as I did this year, D'oh! 

Regards, Mike

[Sunny76]

Jan to March will be colder than average.

Wet and cool first half of april, followed by warm and sunny second half. The nights will be still quite cold throughout. 

May will be average, but will be cold and dry for the first half until around the 15th, before things turn much warmer. The 20th-27th will be the first proper warm to hot spell of the year, with long dry sunny periods. Turning increasingly hot and humid by the 26th with severe thunderstorms, and possibly supercell type storms. These will be widespread across many parts of England and Wales, with more storms reaching Scotland on the 27th.

June will continue on a warm and humid note, following the May storms. After the 5th, temps will be below average. It will be a cold June overall with long periods of cool and cloudy weather. The 20th until the end will be very wet. During this time, expect more severe thunderstorms.

July will be another poor summer month. First half will be hot and sunny, but the weather will deteriorate after the 15th with more severe storms similar to July 2017, giving way to cool and cloudy weather for the rest of the month.

After what will be a very poor midsummer and disappointing period, since late May warmth and the early July hot spell, August will be warmer and sunnier than average. The first three weeks will be warm and sunny, but not too hot. Nights will be warm and humid at times. The bank holiday will be sunny, but temps will start to drop below 20c as we head towards late summer.

September will be warm and sunny until the 6th, but cool and dull for the rest of the month.

October to be mild and wet, sunny and dry second half and colder.

November will be mild and dry.

December will start off rather mild and dry with dull periods, before turning cold and dry for the second half. Below average temps.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

2019 will be yet another year of extremes. I am confident, going on past trends over the last 10 years, we will see plenty more records broken for record high daily CET figures, intense and prolonged periods of rain, long stretches of little or no rain.  This winter looks like one where we largely miss out on the cold that will mainly affect central and eastern Europe, but we will probably see some snow in Feb/early March. It will probably not be as warm as 2018 was, but I will call a top 15 warmest CET summer on record.

Edited January 9, 2019 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[B87]

Averages for London Heathrow in 2019.

Avg max/min, precip, sun
Jan: 8/3, 10mm, 45hrs - average temps, dry, cloudy
Feb: 7/1, 30mm, 80hrs - cold, dry and sunny
Mar: 11/4, 30mm, 110hrs - average all round
Apr: 15/5, 25mm, 180hrs - slightly drier than average
May: 17/9, 60mm, 180hrs - cool, wet and on the cloudy side
Jun: 22/12, 20mm, 200hrs - dry, average temps and sunshine
Jul: 23/14, 25mm, 200hrs - dry, average temps and slightly below average sunshine
Aug: 25/15, 10mm, 230hrs - warm, dry, sunny
Sep: 20/11, 20mm, 135hrs - average temps, dry and cloudy
Oct: 16/10, 70mm, 120hrs - warmer and wetter than average
Nov: 12/7, 80mm, 65hrs - mild, wet and cloudy
Dec: 6/1, 40mm, 70hrs - cold and sunny

Hottest max: 34c
Coldest min: -3c
Rain days: 105
Snow days: 3
TS days: 20

First 20c: 1st April

First 25c: 10th May

First 30c: 15th June

First 32c: 4th July

Highest max 34c: 3rd August

August will finally be sunnier than average for the first time since 2005!

Edited January 13, 2019 by B87

[Harry233]

January: Read this too late so obviously fairly mild first half but cold and sunny second half

February: Cold spell first then a mild and sunny spell with a snowy end

March: Cold start then mainly dry and pleasantly warm

April: Slightly warmer than average, quite wet but sunny

May: Warm but unsettled

June: Mainly dry and sunny though with a very humid, thundery spell near the end

July: Settled, sunny and warm with no real heatwave

August: Very hot first half, thundery and warm spell with a cool end

September: Cool and wet first half, dry and sunny second half

October: Unsettled with contrasting temperatures 

November: Very stormy in the first week, then quiet and mild before a massive freeze

December: Very cold first half, mild just before Christmas then another big freeze