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Paul

Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps

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so chaps, I've been a 'lurker' since joining in november 2010, and purely by chance when the most glorious modelled charts unfolded before the memorable December 2010! and ironically i decide to post something some 8+ years later when i see I'm the only member logged in! so what's changed when there were 100s of members only the last few days when i had to scroll through post after post?! i'll tell you what's changed, just a slight trend/direction (possible anomaly, but no doubt likely attributed to the direction of the jet stream - as flagged by the MO in recent tweets) that the models have picked up on all of a sudden that deviates from the direction that we were all set on heading - i.e. sustained cold and guaranteed chances of snow - as we interpreted it. granted, very disappointing to see. so this is a NUDGE to all - lets not forget, it's only late January and all the drivers (telecommunications) have not changed - they remain the same as eloquently explained by the likes of @chionomaniac and @Catacol to name a few (and apologies for omitting others) (and a big acknowledgment to all those for their knowledgeable an positive posts) - and lets not forget that big players such as the jet stream can all of a sudden take a more favourable route that then resumes our route to cold. lets resume optimism 

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Errm, you're really not the only member logged in, there are currently 1000+ people online on the forums. I noticed you posted a similar thing in the model thread too, and in that exact same minute you posted there were 4 other posts!

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well i guess that was one way of getting a reply! a malfunction this end as i genuinely saw less than 10 members before i posted 🙂

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This got removed from the "Potential Cold Shot Incoming"  thread for some reason. Maybe this one is more appropriate .

 

-47.8C just recorded up at Shepherd Bay Airport in Nunavut. (Record -57.8C for that site and Canadian province.)

https://weather.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=NU

Also -17C high in Ottawa yesterday.

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/extreme-cold-warning-grips-the-capital-1.4262890

A slight taste of this could be headed our way, perhaps, if northwesterlies to northerlies hold?

 

Edited by Aleman

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Friday night we had settled snow when the radar said sleet. This afternoon it said sleet and snow but I've only seen rain. It was very cold rain, though. It's still raining lightly and we have ice forming on our garden table. I'm not sure if that is classed as freezing rain or not but I suggest everyone in central and northern England is extra wary if out and about this evening. (Currently 1.5C here.)

Edit - maybe further south, too. Is it really snowing widely across London, as radar indicates?

Edited by Aleman

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Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness we are in a colder spell right now.

Think this thread would be better being called "The hunt for 5ft of snow and the rainbow coloured unicorn".

I think everyone (including me) just wants a sustained period of cold with no intrusion from any milder conditions. And I honestly think we're going to get there. Folk seem so up and down with their emotions though. I know everyone is disheartened by the lack of easterly/deep cold this week, but we had AMAZING runs yesterday, and now this morning we've had one bad run and some people just seems to go into breakdown mode and write the winter off.. It's been frustrating for all of us, I can totally understand why people are disheartened at this point, but I think the models are certainly on the up especially from where we were over the weekend.

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4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness we are in a colder spell right now.

Think this thread would be better being called "The hunt for 5ft of snow and the rainbow coloured unicorn".

What a silly post, 5c and cold rain on low ground doesn't quite spell a cold spell in January does it?

Oh I have 0.3cm on the floor that's melting before sun rise. Great cold spell 

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3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What a silly post, 5c and cold rain on low ground doesn't quite spell a cold spell in January does it?

Oh I have 0.3cm on the floor that's melting before sun rise. Great cold spell 

Was the snow measure, level lying or a drift?😄😄😄

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7 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What a silly post, 5c and cold rain on low ground doesn't quite spell a cold spell in January does it?

Oh I have 0.3cm on the floor that's melting before sun rise. Great cold spell 

Colder......this threads a joke now

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4 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What a silly post, 5c and cold rain on low ground doesn't quite spell a cold spell in January does it?

Oh I have 0.3cm on the floor that's melting before sun rise. Great cold spell 

You used to be a constructive poster to this thread in years gone by why so bitter?!  I do get the frustration though and I suppose somebody has to be bitter as the weather certainly isn't!  😂

I checked the GFS myself this morning and an Easterly is still showing...at Day 10!  I'll get my coat....

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5 minutes ago, joggs said:

Or "the search for a single snowflake thread and a decent frost"

Saw a snowflake yesterday and had a temp of -5c a couple of days ago. I live 16 miles south of London, not on Ben Nevis.

We all want a prolonged beast from the east, but an average winter in the UK is never going to deliver that. 

Hopefully we get some more snow, but hope casting and wishing an easterly to suddenly pop up is unlikely to come to fruition.

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8 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What a silly post, 5c and cold rain on low ground doesn't quite spell a cold spell in January does it?

Oh I have 0.3cm on the floor that's melting before sun rise. Great cold spell 

What does then? We live on an island at the end of a large body of water.

I think chasing a Siberian style winter on said island is pretty silly.

 

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I am lost for words  .../_ _ _ /...  

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4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Saw a snowflake yesterday and had a temp of -5c a couple of days ago. I live 16 miles south of London, not on Ben Nevis.

We all want a prolonged beast from the east, but an average winter in the UK is never going to deliver that. 

Hopefully we get some more snow, but hope casting and wishing an easterly to suddenly pop up is unlikely to come to fruition.

When have i hopecasted?.

Good for you in respect of what you have had.Some of us haven't.

Just saying that all the dream charts have more or less stayed at 10 days away(apart from the failed easterly).

Yes we all wish a easterly would pop of course(apart from them with a mild persuasion).

But with all the good signals ect,so far for the majority it's  been a bust.

Not to say we won't have something of note in feb of course.

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2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I agree with you, I guess iv just been worn down by the continued day 10 chases, it's been a really tiresome winter for me tbh iv really struggled with how wrong it's gone so far, perhaps it's because I allowed myself to get reeled in early doors and done quite a lot of personal research into this winter and really thought we would have a good one, along with the complete inability from the more knowledgeable ones to hold hands up and just agree with the facts of how wrong things have gone rather than be in complete denial and slag off the ones that's calling it the way we/I see it, 

Just getting sick of it all, but time to draw under it all I think so I will have a think of what road to take; either let it go and start a fresh slate or give it  rest for a while, 

I have been very negaitve I agree, but I have my reasons! 

You don't owe anybody an explanation.

You can feel how you want on here.Other side of the coin are the forever optimists.👍

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3 minutes ago, joggs said:

When have i hopecasted?.

Good for you in respect of what you have had.Some of us haven't.

Just saying that all the dream charts have more or less stayed at 10 days away(apart from the failed easterly).

Yes we all wish a easterly would pop of course(apart from them with a mild persuasion).

But with all the good signals ect,so far for the majority it's  been a bust.

Not to say we won't have something of note in feb of course.

Sorry - I was not specifically saying you had hopecasted.

I just mean people in general, I have seen a number of comments such as "an easterly is going to show up suddenly on the models" - it may do, but law of averages and past history shows that to be fairly unlikely.

I understand the frustration of people in here, but a little realism is required sometimes. Something like a 1947 or 1987 event is around a 1 in 200 year occurrence, that is a lot of FI chasing!

 

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21 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What a silly post, 5c and cold rain on low ground doesn't quite spell a cold spell in January does it?

Oh I have 0.3cm on the floor that's melting before sun rise. Great cold spell 

Looks like a wintry scene to me, and it's better than we get here most winters these days!

We are in a cold spell at the moment that is supportive of snow. Countrywide snow events are a rarity in this country, and it is what everybody's searching for on here, but I think it's a little inaccurate to say we are not in a cold spell!

IMG_20190123_072207_HHT.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I agree with you, I guess iv just been worn down by the continued day 10 chases, it's been a really tiresome winter for me tbh iv really struggled with how wrong it's gone so far, perhaps it's because I allowed myself to get reeled in early doors and done quite a lot of personal research into this winter and really thought we would have a good one, along with the complete inability from the more knowledgeable ones to hold hands up and just agree with the facts of how wrong things have gone rather than be in complete denial and slag off the ones that's calling it the way we/I see it, 

Just getting sick of it all, but time to draw under it all I think so I will have a think of what road to take; either let it go and start a fresh slate or give it  rest for a while, 

I have been very negaitve I agree, but I have my reasons! 

Quite right Shaun, think deep down it’s getting to most people on here, it’s always that bloody Azores high or low pressure to the nw in the wrong place, it simply rarely sets up right for the uk. One thing I do no for sure though Shaun is that IF/WHEN the big freeze and snow finally comes you will be back here quicker than usan bolt 

Edited by markw2680
Edit

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35 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I agree with you, I guess iv just been worn down by the continued day 10 chases, it's been a really tiresome winter for me tbh iv really struggled with how wrong it's gone so far, perhaps it's because I allowed myself to get reeled in early doors and done quite a lot of personal research into this winter and really thought we would have a good one, along with the complete inability from the more knowledgeable ones to hold hands up and just agree with the facts of how wrong things have gone rather than be in complete denial and slag off the ones that's calling it the way we/I see it, 

Just getting sick of it all, but time to draw under it all I think so I will have a think of what road to take; either let it go and start a fresh slate or give it  rest for a while, 

I have been very negaitve I agree, but I have my reasons! 

You've hit the nail on the head with this. Writing essays about how the colder, snowier weather WILL arrive imminently, but then writing another essay to explain why it hasn't yet happened and that it's just been pushed back (again) only creates credibility issues. If people held their hands up and were completely honest when they get things wrong, then this place would be all the better for it.

We need to be more realistic about our expectations. Remember, it's only the weather 😳

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morning all, after a winter of so close but so far for most regarding snow, i shall be looking forward to some milder weather on friday/saturday where temps are forecast to be 9c, beyond that, not looking overly cold so we might just have to accept that this winter might just be one of those where things just dont fall right. 

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My word there’s a lot of nonsense in here this morning. Let’s just accept that some people got snow and others didn’t. I saw about ten flakes yesterday so I’m on the fence lol.

Although a tad colder than average, it’s a bit of a stretch calling it a cold spell so far. Only dropped below freezing for the first time here last night to give a heavy ground frost.

This weather is actually reminding me a bit of mid last February. Mainly pm air, moderately cold but not excessively so, with more in the way of sunshine. That looks set to continue with a brief blip on Friday. Hopefully something properly wintry soon.

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dont know about cold weather, fri/sat temps now forecast to be 10c, should feel pleasent in any sunshine i would think

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Almost a classic winter's day today where I am.  Nice (but still not sep. deep) covering of snow slowly thawing in the winter sunshine.  Didn't think I'd see snow during this current spell so I'm happy.  ☃️

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8 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

dont know about cold weather, fri/sat temps now forecast to be 10c, should feel pleasent in any sunshine i would think

large teapot sucks! hardly had one here, normal though post '98 or so

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