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Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps


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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Thanks for posting that, Nick.

I haven't found one model that has shown cloud, so seeing that shows how bad the cloud forecasts have been. Met had me down for -3°C this morning, but it only managed to get down to 3.4°C. 
My own WSXIM forecast had a low of 2°C which was closer, but even that showed clear skies. It's a shame as I was hoping to catch a glimpse of the Quadrantid meteor's.

GFS is utterly dreadful at cloud, particularly low cloud which it pretty much doesn't believe in. EC is decent, UKV usually is too. Euro4 tends to go overboard but even that during this spell doesn't have enough.

Considering that cloud is the biggest influence on road temperatures, forecasting for the council gritting teams has been a challenge!

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"BOOM! Could be before Christmas...." "Look at that, it will be after Christmas...." "Ah no, it will be after New Years...." "Plenty of potential for mid-January...."    

Perhaps we should ban all model charts beyond T+120 hours. We could then go back to the 70-80's and actually watch weather forecasts from professionals. Probably not believing them anyway and happy to

Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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1 hour ago, Nick L said:

GFS is utterly dreadful at cloud, particularly low cloud which it pretty much doesn't believe in. EC is decent, UKV usually is too. Euro4 tends to go overboard but even that during this spell doesn't have enough.

Considering that cloud is the biggest influence on road temperatures, forecasting for the council gritting teams has been a challenge!

What about the skew-t charts @Nick L?

i.e. If today's suggest near saturation at low levels, wouldn't that ring a few alarm bells?

image.thumb.png.15e8d63578f6120c331049fba4ed30a5.png

 

 

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Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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19 minutes ago, jtay said:

What about the skew-t charts @Nick L?

i.e. If today's suggest near saturation at low levels, wouldn't that ring a few alarm bells?

image.thumb.png.15e8d63578f6120c331049fba4ed30a5.png

 

 

To be fair, the GFS did have some patchy cloud over London. We don't usually pay too much attention to the GFS for cloud forecasting but on this occasion it's certainly no worse than the rest. 

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2 hours ago, Nick L said:

The UKV model has been utterly useless, sadly. All models have been but this is pretty special. This is what the skies should be like now apparently, gin clear for everyone...

 1149034912_Maps03-01-201913.thumb.png.21fad047d5678007e6058d6ba3f54865.png

I was thinking that we were much cloudier today than we should have been.  Even on the local lunchtime BBC forecast, they were saying how the clouds were lifting in many areas, yet we've had slate grey skies all day here.

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8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

days of cloud and gloom, i think i want 35c and long days instead of this crap

i totally agree, if we are not going to get any snow, which i dont think we will, can we please have sunny skies and warmer days and get rid of this dank cloudy stuff

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46 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

Couldnt agree more ... 

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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

days of cloud and gloom, i think i want 35c and long days instead of this crap

I’ll take the heat of last summer over this gloomy cold and dull stuff.

However, the one thing I do prefer now over the summer is the fresher air. Warm nights in the summer made it diffcult to sleep, but that being said, you don’t require the same amount of sleep when the days are longer.

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Shall we make this the 'Hunt for Sun' thread? I'm up for that! If it weren't for the fact it's been seasonably cold, it's only a notch up from December.

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The hopecasters hope for snow, but unless you work for the newspapapers it's looks unlikely in January for most of us.

PS. SSW = South South Westerly, and nothing to do with the Stratosphere.

Hopecasting continues, driving home from Christmas in their Fiat 500. (Clogging up the roads)

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11 hours ago, Lauren said:

Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

Slowly counting down the days to spring.. 

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As this season started relatively early (Got rather cool in Oct-Nov) I'll stick my neck out and say I reckon we're in for an early spring season.... ?  

Don't get me wrong I love ice and snow but when you think about it, its a right nuisance to travel in! A snowless winter maybe? Not all bad! 

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9 hours ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

The hopecasters hope for snow, but unless you work for the newspapapers it's looks unlikely in January for most of us.

PS. SSW = South South Westerly, and nothing to do with the Stratosphere.

Hopecasting continues, driving home from Christmas in their Fiat 500. (Clogging up the roads)

How is discussing what the models are showing hopecasting?

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well hello winter and goodbye, 2 frosts and a chilly cpl of days,  the forecast then says temps back up to normal from sunday, still going to be chilly on the terraces at Carrow Road tomorrow evening.

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This is always the slowest part of the year for me.  Long, cold nights and dark days really sap the energy out of me.  Invested in one of those daylight lamps that simulates sunrise in the morning but nothing beats an actual sunny morning.  I'm hoping this year brings plenty of warm, calm and sunny mornings.  Absolutely love sitting outside with a morning coffee just listening to the birdsong, absolute bliss...

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2 hours ago, Evening Star said:

This is always the slowest part of the year for me.  Long, cold nights and dark days really sap the energy out of me.  Invested in one of those daylight lamps that simulates sunrise in the morning but nothing beats an actual sunny morning.  I'm hoping this year brings plenty of warm, calm and sunny mornings.  Absolutely love sitting outside with a morning coffee just listening to the birdsong, absolute bliss...

That’s still a long way off, not at least until mid way through March or even early April before we have an early taste of that.

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4 hours ago, Evening Star said:

This is always the slowest part of the year for me.  Long, cold nights and dark days really sap the energy out of me.  Invested in one of those daylight lamps that simulates sunrise in the morning but nothing beats an actual sunny morning.  I'm hoping this year brings plenty of warm, calm and sunny mornings.  Absolutely love sitting outside with a morning coffee just listening to the birdsong, absolute bliss...

:oldlaugh:

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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