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Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Thanks for posting that, Nick.

    I haven't found one model that has shown cloud, so seeing that shows how bad the cloud forecasts have been. Met had me down for -3°C this morning, but it only managed to get down to 3.4°C. 
    My own WSXIM forecast had a low of 2°C which was closer, but even that showed clear skies. It's a shame as I was hoping to catch a glimpse of the Quadrantid meteor's.

    GFS is utterly dreadful at cloud, particularly low cloud which it pretty much doesn't believe in. EC is decent, UKV usually is too. Euro4 tends to go overboard but even that during this spell doesn't have enough.

    Considering that cloud is the biggest influence on road temperatures, forecasting for the council gritting teams has been a challenge!

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    "BOOM! Could be before Christmas...." "Look at that, it will be after Christmas...." "Ah no, it will be after New Years...." "Plenty of potential for mid-January...."    

    Perhaps we should ban all model charts beyond T+120 hours. We could then go back to the 70-80's and actually watch weather forecasts from professionals. Probably not believing them anyway and happy to

    Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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    Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Nick L said:

    GFS is utterly dreadful at cloud, particularly low cloud which it pretty much doesn't believe in. EC is decent, UKV usually is too. Euro4 tends to go overboard but even that during this spell doesn't have enough.

    Considering that cloud is the biggest influence on road temperatures, forecasting for the council gritting teams has been a challenge!

    What about the skew-t charts @Nick L?

    i.e. If today's suggest near saturation at low levels, wouldn't that ring a few alarm bells?

    image.thumb.png.15e8d63578f6120c331049fba4ed30a5.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    The best forecast I've ever seen was done using seaweed..?

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    19 minutes ago, jtay said:

    What about the skew-t charts @Nick L?

    i.e. If today's suggest near saturation at low levels, wouldn't that ring a few alarm bells?

    image.thumb.png.15e8d63578f6120c331049fba4ed30a5.png

     

     

    To be fair, the GFS did have some patchy cloud over London. We don't usually pay too much attention to the GFS for cloud forecasting but on this occasion it's certainly no worse than the rest. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    2 hours ago, Nick L said:

    The UKV model has been utterly useless, sadly. All models have been but this is pretty special. This is what the skies should be like now apparently, gin clear for everyone...

     1149034912_Maps03-01-201913.thumb.png.21fad047d5678007e6058d6ba3f54865.png

    I was thinking that we were much cloudier today than we should have been.  Even on the local lunchtime BBC forecast, they were saying how the clouds were lifting in many areas, yet we've had slate grey skies all day here.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    days of cloud and gloom, i think i want 35c and long days instead of this crap

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
    8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    days of cloud and gloom, i think i want 35c and long days instead of this crap

    i totally agree, if we are not going to get any snow, which i dont think we will, can we please have sunny skies and warmer days and get rid of this dank cloudy stuff

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    Posted
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
  • Location: Duddingston, Edinburgh
    46 minutes ago, Lauren said:

    Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

    Couldnt agree more ... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands

    Well it's murky and cloudy but at least it's cold and settled.  It could be a lot worse that's for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

    days of cloud and gloom, i think i want 35c and long days instead of this crap

    I’ll take the heat of last summer over this gloomy cold and dull stuff.

    However, the one thing I do prefer now over the summer is the fresher air. Warm nights in the summer made it diffcult to sleep, but that being said, you don’t require the same amount of sleep when the days are longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Shall we make this the 'Hunt for Sun' thread? I'm up for that! If it weren't for the fact it's been seasonably cold, it's only a notch up from December.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border
  • Location: Warwickshire/Oxon/Northants Border

    The hopecasters hope for snow, but unless you work for the newspapapers it's looks unlikely in January for most of us.

    PS. SSW = South South Westerly, and nothing to do with the Stratosphere.

    Hopecasting continues, driving home from Christmas in their Fiat 500. (Clogging up the roads)

    Edited by 'ColdIsBest'
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    11 hours ago, Lauren said:

    Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

    Slowly counting down the days to spring.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m

    Just found this corner of NW. The graveyard thread. Without the holy or the holly. Like the corpse of winters past.

    Mild I say, mild!  Ebineezer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

    As this season started relatively early (Got rather cool in Oct-Nov) I'll stick my neck out and say I reckon we're in for an early spring season.... ?  

    Don't get me wrong I love ice and snow but when you think about it, its a right nuisance to travel in! A snowless winter maybe? Not all bad! 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    Already counting the days to this coming Autumn,......if only i could skip Spring and Summer i would be so happy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs

    I now find my joke post from December less amusing!

    image.thumb.png.ab706d0ff6189224242f90d72733a8df.png

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    9 hours ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

    The hopecasters hope for snow, but unless you work for the newspapapers it's looks unlikely in January for most of us.

    PS. SSW = South South Westerly, and nothing to do with the Stratosphere.

    Hopecasting continues, driving home from Christmas in their Fiat 500. (Clogging up the roads)

    How is discussing what the models are showing hopecasting?

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well hello winter and goodbye, 2 frosts and a chilly cpl of days,  the forecast then says temps back up to normal from sunday, still going to be chilly on the terraces at Carrow Road tomorrow evening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    This is always the slowest part of the year for me.  Long, cold nights and dark days really sap the energy out of me.  Invested in one of those daylight lamps that simulates sunrise in the morning but nothing beats an actual sunny morning.  I'm hoping this year brings plenty of warm, calm and sunny mornings.  Absolutely love sitting outside with a morning coffee just listening to the birdsong, absolute bliss...

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    2 hours ago, Evening Star said:

    This is always the slowest part of the year for me.  Long, cold nights and dark days really sap the energy out of me.  Invested in one of those daylight lamps that simulates sunrise in the morning but nothing beats an actual sunny morning.  I'm hoping this year brings plenty of warm, calm and sunny mornings.  Absolutely love sitting outside with a morning coffee just listening to the birdsong, absolute bliss...

    That’s still a long way off, not at least until mid way through March or even early April before we have an early taste of that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    long way off yet, hate the dark mornings, gets better late Feb through March, but dark again late March and April after clocks go forward

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

     

     

    4 hours ago, Evening Star said:

    This is always the slowest part of the year for me.  Long, cold nights and dark days really sap the energy out of me.  Invested in one of those daylight lamps that simulates sunrise in the morning but nothing beats an actual sunny morning.  I'm hoping this year brings plenty of warm, calm and sunny mornings.  Absolutely love sitting outside with a morning coffee just listening to the birdsong, absolute bliss...

    :oldlaugh:

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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