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Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps


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"BOOM! Could be before Christmas...." "Look at that, it will be after Christmas...." "Ah no, it will be after New Years...." "Plenty of potential for mid-January...."    

Perhaps we should ban all model charts beyond T+120 hours. We could then go back to the 70-80's and actually watch weather forecasts from professionals. Probably not believing them anyway and happy to

Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Right, I’ve got the hump. Where is my bloody snow??? 

ya know, just have a feeling this winter could be snowless, i know it's not started yet only Jan 2, but models not really ever suggesting any, latest GFS and EC both go for westerlies in FI

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ya know, just have a feeling this winter could be snowless, i know it's not started yet only Jan 2, but models not really ever suggesting any, latest GFS and EC both go for westerlies in FI

I have been looking at the pv profile over the last week or so and have commented that the cards weren’t falling right at the present. However there is loads of time left and if we had a week to 10 days of fun then the frustration will fade away. 

In this world of amazon prime etc where everything his here tomorrow it is refreshing that the weather will do whatever it likes. Frustrating at times but it does make it more interesting. 

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1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

To be perfectly honest reading about the moans about the gfs but going by the met office update it's the only model that's been pretty much bang on! Lol

It is always the same.

GFS shows flat flattening pattern but ECM shows a nice Easterly - the GFS will come aboard, the GFS is bad and 9/10 the pattern flattens. ?

Zonal with just transient ridges is the meteorlogical norm for us though and GFS is often over progressive in FI.

There has never been a cold signal related to this SSW in any ensemble set as yet but given their lower res and lag response time of all things trop led then we probably wouldn't see anything for a couple more days anyway.

The MetO updates are the most worrying pushing back any cold a week each new week, it was first mentioned for second week of Jan, it is now end of Jan.  

It has all been very frustrating, especially given how prominent mid lat blocking has been, just always in the wrong place for even a cold snap.

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3 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

After the last few Winters the Americans have had, I'd say they deserve it.

I think most of them would appreciate it! There's a reason why Vancouver, which has an identical climate to most of England, is seen as having Canada's best climate.

Edited by cheese
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Noticed Ben Rich on 5 Live at around 4.15pm said the upper temps are dropping like a stone and it could or may not create a Beast from the east like last year but said this is by no means certain. This time last year I flew to Toronto and I had to wait over an hour for bags as the outside belts were freezing up as it was -25c with wind chill.  Hearing they are starting to get very cold again after a very mild December.

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1 hour ago, cheese said:

I think most of them would appreciate it! There's a reason why Vancouver, which has an identical climate to most of England, is seen as having Canada's best climate.

Yeah, but their summers are rainy. Toronto summers are much better, despite being hot and humid at times. 

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It's all out there this evening - dry and frosty, light drizzle, light sleet (East Anglia), light snow  (North York Moors and Luton/Oxford/Guildford) and freezing rain (south of York/Doncaster/Billingshurst/Woking). I reckon these people that complain of no winter weather must never go out after dusk. They're probably cudding their Ovaltine already.?

Edited by Aleman
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Had some sleet here earlier 1.oC..

Big ******* deal.

I saw more snow in October 3cm lying 

Law of average we may see a cold feb.

But i wouldn't be surprised to see blizzards at Easter.

I'm glad i bought a Net Weather damage proof case for laptop in summer when they were going cheap "the amount of times I've thrown it at the wall this winter lol

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Despite SSW and the excitement that threatens to deliver, it's really like pulling teeth this season!

I suppose we have to be pleased that the UK High is providing an Omega type block and keeping any Atlantic activity largely at bay.

Just a pity that High wasn't anchored further NW (perhaps over Iceland) allowing the wintry fun & games over Central Europe to make headway towards the UK

Difficult to see which way this will actually go during the next 10-14 days?

I would say that the odds are stacked in favour of colder conditions eventually creeping West towards UK    :cold:

Once again though, patience required.

Lets hope it won't take until March this year!

 

 

Edited by snowblizzard
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I fear there will be broken hearts soon on the Hunt for Cold thread,mother nature will just be teasing again i suspect. But at least it brings a bit of happiness for a brief few hours ?

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

That is up a mountain-!

 

But if you want to talk about Italy did you know it holds the world record for the most snow in 24 hours - beating canada & America !

100 inches in 24 hours lake effect snow.

A71D82F5-AD7B-498C-914B-11232E10DCA1.thumb.png.1e54f1129861fc644d100ece8d5c9c2a.png

 

 

That wasn't given a record status due to it being reports from the public. It was grossly overestimated due to wind blowing the snow around. Still no official amount recorded, but it was somewhere around 65".

The world record still stands at 75.8 inches in Colorado.

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One thing that may have gone unnoticed is how appalling the models have done regarding cloud amounts over the last 24 hours. I was looking forward to a cold, frosty week but nope, can't even muster that.

Not only that, but the unexpected cloud has utterly ruined my roads forecasts ?

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6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

One thing that may have gone unnoticed is how appalling the models have done regarding cloud amounts over the last 24 hours. I was looking forward to a cold, frosty week but nope, can't even muster that.

Not only that, but the unexpected cloud has utterly ruined my roads forecasts ?

We were forecast -4° this morning by the Met Office with clear skies. Was really looking forward to it, in end it was 1° with cloud persisting all night.

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2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

We were forecast -4° this morning by the Met Office with clear skies. Was really looking forward to it, in end it was 1° with cloud persisting all night.

The UKV model has been utterly useless, sadly. All models have been but this is pretty special. This is what the skies should be like now apparently, gin clear for everyone...

 1149034912_Maps03-01-201913.thumb.png.21fad047d5678007e6058d6ba3f54865.png

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2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

We were forecast -4° this morning by the Met Office with clear skies. Was really looking forward to it, in end it was 1° with cloud persisting all night.

I'd say go back to good old fashioned seaweed forecasting its more accurate. Lol.

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7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

One thing that may have gone unnoticed is how appalling the models have done regarding cloud amounts over the last 24 hours. I was looking forward to a cold, frosty week but nope, can't even muster that.

Not only that, but the unexpected cloud has utterly ruined my roads forecasts ?

It hasn't gone unnoticed in the South West thread, Nick.

Worse still, every METO update changes the current conditions from Sunshine to cloud, but promises it'll clear in the next hour and beyond. It hasn't and it won't.

☁️

 

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1 minute ago, jtay said:

It hasn't gone unnoticed in the South West thread, Nick.

Worse still, every METO update changes the current conditions from Sunshine to cloud, but promises it'll clear in the next hour and beyond. It hasn't and it won't.

☁️

 

I suspect all forecasting services (ours included!) will be doing similar. Been made to look rather silly the last day or two, mainly because models are refusing to even acknowledge the existence of this cloud. I thought they ingested satellite data but it's clearly not working!

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5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The UKV model has been utterly useless, sadly. All models have been but this is pretty special. This is what the skies should be like now apparently, gin clear for everyone...

 1149034912_Maps03-01-201913.thumb.png.21fad047d5678007e6058d6ba3f54865.png

Thanks for posting that, Nick.

I haven't found one model that has shown cloud, so seeing that shows how bad the cloud forecasts have been. Met had me down for -3°C this morning, but it only managed to get down to 3.4°C. 
My own WSXIM forecast had a low of 2°C which was closer, but even that showed clear skies. It's a shame as I was hoping to catch a glimpse of the Quadrantid meteor's.

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