Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps

[cheese]

34 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes it’s been poor for snow, but that doesn’t mean it’s been mild all the way. We’ve had cold spells in the past that produced very little snow. 95-96 was a prime example of that. 

It’s felt surprisingly chilly even before the past 72 hours. Maybe I’m just becoming cold intolerant!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yes it’s been poor for snow, but that doesn’t mean it’s been mild all the way. We’ve had cold spells in the past that produced very little snow. 95-96 was a prime example of that. 

95-96 was very good here, this year one of worst on record, just 3 smatterings/gone in a flash

[Azazel]

I dunno I think this year’s been fairly cold. 

I don’t look at the stats, I just go by the feel of things and certainly the last few weeks have felt chilly to me. 

Several mornings have seen harsh frosts and ice and -7 when I got up the other morning is decently cold. Also we just had about 6 inches of snow. 

‘Worst on record’ seems a bit hyperbole especially when compared to those dreadful winters of the last few years - can’t remember which, but just relentless driving wind and rain and storm after storm after storm. I remember there wasn’t a day where I didn’t get home from work absolutely soaked to the bone for about four weeks solid.

Also I think it was 2016 or 2015 when it was 18 degrees on Christmas Eve.

those winters were far far worse.

 

[simshady]

Had the best snowfall since 2010 in my area, much better than spring 2013 in which we had no snowfall but was much touted across the country. There is still some snow out there today so i am happy that this winter has delivered for me, personally. I don't expect much.

[Weather-history]

Looks like accuweather is not having that a brilliant winter forecast again. Yes it has been mild at times but that graphic is just bizarre. How can you get a scenario like that unless a main low pressure sits to the west of Ireland and there are low pressures moving up the eastern flank of the parent low bringing gales to western areas that then swing out back into the Atlantic?

"The second half of the season — including January and February — is predicted to be even busier, with Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland, northwestern England and Wales most likely to be hit."   Well January has been relatively quiet. 

"Unlike last year, prolonged dry periods are not anticipated so regions which are coping with drought conditions, such as southern England, may recover." Actually January has been drier than average comfortably, driest January since 2006 by the looks of it and add on dry week of last December. 

IMO, I think their winter forecasts are pretty poor overall.

Edited February 2, 2019 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

Nice to have a dusting of Snow. Been a pretty naff winter so far and not much left. Looks like period of mild weather coming back and I doubt that February will be able to cancel out the very mild December so a mild winter on the cards as well.

[Mokidugway]

Up to now worse than last year ,1 out of 10 soon be spring thank spoon 

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, Azazel said:

I dunno I think this year’s been fairly cold. 

I don’t look at the stats, I just go by the feel of things and certainly the last few weeks have felt chilly to me. 

Several mornings have seen harsh frosts and ice and -7 when I got up the other morning is decently cold. Also we just had about 6 inches of snow. 

‘Worst on record’ seems a bit hyperbole especially when compared to those dreadful winters of the last few years - can’t remember which, but just relentless driving wind and rain and storm after storm after storm. I remember there wasn’t a day where I didn’t get home from work absolutely soaked to the bone for about four weeks solid.

Also I think it was 2016 or 2015 when it was 18 degrees on Christmas Eve.

those winters were far far worse.

 

The winters of 2013/14 until 2016/17 were disappointing. But 15/16 was the one which had very mild days in December, and on the week leading up to Christmas most days were in the 12-14 degree range. It was very mild, but I do remember 1987/88 producing milder days and a warmish sunny Christmas Day. Perhaps my mind plays tricks on me though, because I was much younger then.

 

2016/17 however, gave us a chilly November, and I do remember early and late December being cold. 

This winter has been cold, but it’s been slightly disappointing with the lack of snow for the London area. We fared better in Feb 2018, depending if you like snow that is. I have co workers who can’t stand it. Miserable soda!!! Lol

[Sunny76]

19 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

95-96 was very good here, this year one of worst on record, just 3 smatterings/gone in a flash

Depends on the region though. 

[sparky1972]

well i have to admit that this little, i mean very little snow has cost me a tenner, which is the bet i had with the wife on this being a snowless winter, would sooner have had a fair  bit more to make the bet worth losing, Haha, but with tonight being forecast to be the last frosty night, i can now look forward to much milder weather and hopefully an early spring to get through the last 7 weeks of Half Marathon training.

[reef]

45 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

The winters of 2013/14 until 2016/17 were disappointing. But 15/16 was the one which had very mild days in December, and on the week leading up to Christmas most days were in the 12-14 degree range. It was very mild, but I do remember 1987/88 producing milder days and a warmish sunny Christmas Day. Perhaps my mind plays tricks on me though, because I was much younger then.

 

2016/17 however, gave us a chilly November, and I do remember early and late December being cold. 

This winter has been cold, but it’s been slightly disappointing with the lack of snow for the London area. We fared better in Feb 2018, depending if you like snow that is. I have co workers who can’t stand it. Miserable soda!!! Lol

December had a CET of 6.9C and January was pretty average at 4.0C. Until the last couple of weeks it was hardly cold at all.

Even now after the cold spell February needs to finish with a CET in the high 2s just for this winter to be around the 1981-2010 average. That looks unlikely now so it'll probably finish quite a bit milder than normal.

[Snowyowl9]

No gales this winter to speak of yet,may get some more lively atlantic drab looking at the models,but the westerlies do seem much weaker these days.

[Rambo]

21 minutes ago, reef said:

Even now after the cold spell February needs to finish with a CET in the high 2s just for this winter to be around the 1981-2010 average. That looks unlikely now so it'll probably finish quite a bit milder than normal.

WOW, you  can forecast the entire month of Feb???....the Met Office is calling hahaha

[reef]

2 hours ago, Rambo said:

WOW, you  can forecast the entire month of Feb???....the Met Office is calling hahaha

Not at all, but as it's looking average or above for the foreseeable future then the chance of a sub-3C February and below average winter reduces significantly.

[oliverek7]

There is definitely no way of knowing what February will bring if the level of uncertainty for the wind direction was so high at the end of the week before last week. Easterly was forecast to be by Friday 25th on the Friday before but turned out to be a northwesterly which it changed o the day after so after witnessing that there is definitely no way anyone could know what the rest of the winter will bring! 2010’s winter forecast was for it most likely to be mild but it turned out extremely cold and snowy! Don’t rate this winter yet when we still have a month to go and who knows, maybe we could get a repeat of last year’s late season cold spell. Accuweather has never been correct and bbc weather has gone downhill after switching to Meteogroup so just focus on the weather models and the met office as they are much more reliable to look at!

Edited February 2, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Rambo]

6 minutes ago, reef said:

Not at all, but as it's looking average or above for the foreseeable future then the chance of a sub-3C February and below average winter reduces significantly.

I agree it would need below 3c CET to make it an average winter (I assume you meant 3c and not -3c lol)

However, my point is that yes the models are looking "milder" for the foreseeable, but not that long ago they were looking colder for the foreseeable. Saying Feb will likely finish above average when its only 2nd Feb is just guess work at the moment

[Easton Luna Boys]

14 hours ago, Rambo said:

I agree it would need below 3c CET to make it an average winter (I assume you meant 3c and not -3c lol)

However, my point is that yes the models are looking "milder" for the foreseeable, but not that long ago they were looking colder for the foreseeable. Saying Feb will likely finish above average when its only 2nd Feb is just guess work at the moment

But if Feb does come into the milder category, then it will mean that ALL 3 winter months will have had a higher than average CET. Tell me; where did any of the forecast organisations predict that

Personally, I think the Meto Long range has been shocking. Did they just keep throwing the dice on the hopeful effects of the SSW? 

One thing we can learn from this winter, is that despite all the talk about background signals and SSWs our understanding is still very limited in these areas. 

 

[Sunny76]

I don’t think people should get excited about spring just yet. I have a feeling March and even April will give us more chilly weather. And I don’t think summer 2019 will be a hot one either. Something tells me it’s going to be average to poor.

[Aleman]

Okay. I'll stop moaning about my slow shower because it's struggling with the very cold mains water supply.

 

Edited February 3, 2019 by Aleman

[Rambo]

5 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

But if Feb does come into the milder category, then it will mean that ALL 3 winter months will have had a higher than average CET. Tell me; where did any of the forecast organisations predict that

Personally, I think the Meto Long range has been shocking. Did they just keep throwing the dice on the hopeful effects of the SSW? 

One thing we can learn from this winter, is that despite all the talk about background signals and SSWs our understanding is still very limited in these areas. 

 

Thats wrong though. Jan is 0.4 below the 81-10 average, and only 0.2 above the 61-90 average, so by modern standards its on the cusp of being below, and more or less average for older standards. So not sure where you're getting the above average from?

As for the rest, exactly, even these days, there's many aspects that are difficult to predict. So why do you feel the need to blame anyone or everyone? This winter has been very difficult to predict by nearly every model or forecasting service. I dont think there's any single forecast that has been anywhere near 100% correct, even at shorter ranges.

If you can do a better job, then go for it lol, although I'd wager you'd be happier if every month was above average.

[Sir Mim]

3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I don’t think people should get excited about spring just yet. I have a feeling March and even April will give us more chilly weather. And I don’t think summer 2019 will be a hot one either. Something tells me it’s going to be average to poor.

 I hope you're right, especially about this summer.  The thought of anything as warm as last year fills me with dread.

[Snowyowl9]

The easterly of 2017 strange this one wasn`t colder on a certain day I remembered did produce snow grains on the 9th and 10th.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye not the best, snowy morning on 11th, but soon followed by a thaw around 2pm or so, 2 days later turned mild and sunny from the SE

[Snowyowl9]

Just spotted this unusual easterly too as a pocket of cold air developed from the south,giving light snow on the 22nd gave a dusting.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, but one of the best, the great days, not had snow on new years day since, snowed all day, topped up already existing snow from 30th and 31st