Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Austria 

Poland

Italy 

 

[snowblizzard]

Some American Forecasters predicting upper trough over Central & Southern Europe will move West starting day 6-10 following decline of stubborn High pressure cell over UK/Ireland

Expect much colder conditions into the UK by 18th January

But, accumulations of snow in UK & France minimal!

[Nick L]

Another wretched performance from models regarding cloud cover last night. Another classic from the UKV...

I hope everyone enjoys their crystal clear, sunny start  Cannot wait to get rid of this garbage. I'd even take an unsettled southwesterly right now.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

What happened to the frosty mornings forecast since Thursday ?

[Summer Sun]

25 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What happened to the frosty mornings forecast since Thursday ?

As Nick posted above the models haven't handled the cloud amounts well at all

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

What happened to the frosty mornings forecast since Thursday ?

Very difficult to forecast where the cloud will be thick, thin or non-existent.

But, I would always expect more rather than less cloud in this particular set-up!

This High is really becoming tedious and is a real spoiler eating into our wintertime. 

 

[Earthshine]

15 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

Just realised how ridiculous it sounds  seems to be working though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

Another wretched performance from models regarding cloud cover last night. Another classic from the UKV...

I hope everyone enjoys their crystal clear, sunny start  Cannot wait to get rid of this garbage. I'd even take an unsettled southwesterly right now.

no way, would rather this

[Mokidugway]

Most won't see even this much snow this year ,Corfu town yesterday anyone 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Mokidugway

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, Nick L said:

Another wretched performance from models regarding cloud cover last night. Another classic from the UKV...

I hope everyone enjoys their crystal clear, sunny start  Cannot wait to get rid of this garbage. I'd even take an unsettled southwesterly right now.

Now now, let's not carried away... 

[Froze were the Days]

Wake me up when we actually have something noteworthy cold wise!! - not potential.

[Stonethecrows]

19 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Wake me up when we actually have something noteworthy cold wise!! - not potential.

Lmao Every noteable cold spell in history will have had some sort of potential prior to it. You don't just open the curtains one day and say oh it's snowing i wonder how that happened

[BARRY]

enjoy https://www.saalbach.com/en/live-info/livecams

[parrotingfantasist]

"BOOM! Could be before Christmas...."

"Look at that, it will be after Christmas...."

"Ah no, it will be after New Years...."

"Plenty of potential for mid-January...."

 

 

 

Oh forget it. Wake me up in February.

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to add to the above post-

As has been written countless times every year - NH statistics are a poor barometer of how well a model performs for the UK

The old 'NCEP' regions used to show how woeful the GFS was 'regionally'

The NH figure is somewhat 'evened up' across the piste due to areas like the pacific being easy to forecast, so across that whole area GFS catches up because its 'easy'

However where its model eastward bias shows - in the atlantic / around the southern tip of Greenland / Scandi - thats where the difference shows V the Euros

Thats why the Metoffice ignore the GFS.

Based on the last 10-15 years model watching if you looking at an amplified UKMO in the atlantic at day 6 & a flat GFS the outcome will be heavily weighted to the UKMo, however not 100% - usually about 70-80% to the UKMO as it seems to have a very slight amplification bias ...

 

S

To be fair, you were stating the exact same thing about the ECM, last year. Other members would reply about verification stats and you dismissed their posts. So, now it's the turn of the GFS and you're doing the same again?

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

To be fair, you were stating the exact same thing about the ECM, last year. Other members would reply about verification stats and you dismissed their posts. So, now it's the turn of the GFS and you're doing the same again?

What are you talking about?

The ECM varifies the best, but can also show a bias-

Which in highly uncertain times can make it volatile, almost to the point as being as bad as the GFS- 

The UKMO is generally the most stable, hence why I said ( Thurs / Fri ) to take the ECM / UKMO blend to rule out any outliers.

ECM at 72/96 even 120 will rarely be wrong ( same as UKMO )- but the ECM @144 & more especially 168/192 can show a zonal bias especially on the 12z.

But thats still not as bad as the GFs that can be totally & utterly wrong on 96 sometimes in Scandi High scenarios--- Even T72 occasionally.

So there you go.

They all go wrong occasionally but across the piste & more especially regionally the ECM + UKMO will blow the GFS out the water.

Edited January 5, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Mapantz]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

What are you talking about?

I remember it vividly! You were saying how bad the ECM was and to ignore it's output. Other members would post verification statistics showing it to be top dog, and you would reply along the lines of; "NH statistics are a poor barometer of how well a model performs for the UK"

So, now it's on to the subject of the GFS, you're using the same argument but saying to follow the Euro models instead. It's all rather hypocritical.

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I remember it vividly! You were saying how bad the ECM was and to ignore it's output. Other members would post verification statistics showing it to be top dog, and you would reply along the lines of; "NH statistics are a poor barometer of how well a model performs for the UK"

So, now it's on to the subject of the GFS, you're using the same argument but saying to follow the Euro models instead. It's all rather hypocritical.

See above for clarification.

ECM occasional zonal bias 144 on 12z ( more especially 168>192 )

GFS bias & failure stars 72-96 in certain scenarios-

- Scandi High

- Any scenario with a split jet or 'splitting energy'

UKMO/ ECM blend always the way forward just like the Fax charts - which include MOGREPS ENS factored in as well.

 

Edited January 5, 2019 by Steve Murr

[The PIT]

Crap GFS tonight. Anyways hoping for a dry week would love too see some sunshine to dry the grass out. I may be able to cut the grass next weekend. Yup it needs cutting and being generally dry for a while I could well manage it. First time ever I'll have cut it in January. Dunno whether we are having a prolonged autumn or we've already moved into spring with winter confined to three days in December.

The annoying cloud please go every day grey rubbish. The most boring winter ever so far.

 

[SMU]

So in the fairness of model watching I will put todays day 6 charts to the test with 99.99% confidence the GFS operational will be wrong.

We are looking in an area where its weak resolution just steams the jet through East, UKMO should resolve better.

This is why micro analising charts every day helps you debunk model bias.

GFS 144 for 11 Jan 12z.

Points to note:

-No heights over Greenland ( circled Green )

- The massive storm associated with the lobe of vortex is shunted in Scandi & the jet inflection is weak.

UKMO 144 for Jan 12z

- Weak 'steering' heights over Greenland-

- Massive vortex storm much further NW with the cold alligned to Western Europe

- Jet inflection is further West & of a steep gradient.

- Vortex split over the pole.

* Ive made a note of the poat number & page - we will come back in 6 days for an honest appraisal *

 

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Lmao Every noteable cold spell in history will have had some sort of potential prior to it. You don't just open the curtains one day and say oh it's snowing i wonder how that happened

That's true but that's all this winter has been about to date 'potential down the line' - I'm talking about consistent charts which show either high latitude blocking or a potent Arctic outbreak (neither has happened thus far) - and I'll take your hint of sarcasm in your post in good jest and as I've been recording winter records since 1983, I don't think you should be telling me how to suck eggs!

Edited January 5, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[Aleman]

Some pics of what we are missing in central and eastern Europe - snow on southern Greek and Italian beaches, drifts and blizzards further north.

https://wolnosc24.pl/2019/01/04/europa-pod-sniegiem-zobacz-jak-wygladaja-balkany-czy-wlochy-w-grecji-minus-10-stopni-celsjusza/

 

 

 

[Stonethecrows]

5 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's true but that's all this winter has been about to date 'potential down the line' - I'm talking about consistent charts which show either high latitude blocking or a potent Arctic outbreak (neither has happened thus far) - and I'll take your hint of sarcasm in your post in good jest and as I've been recording winter records since 1983, I don't think you should be telling me how to suck eggs!

The only winter records i was recording in 1983 was Paul Young and Slade so you got me there mate.

[The PIT]

Well I'm declaring  winter over. Done the first lawn cuts of the new year something which I've never done in my life and my father hadn't either. Previous years it has been longer but they were wet so you could only look at what needed doing as the rain ran down the windows.

So welcome to spring and yes it can get cold in spring as well.

[Fozfoster]

if your looking for cold  .......................im afraid nothing to see here..............................