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January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests


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11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Its been a long time since we had a January that had a very mild first half compared to a very cold second half.. anyone post stats to back up when this last happened. Came close in 1996, but the cold arrived in the last third rather than 16th. 

 

Not a very cold second half but January 1998 was a definite split between the two halves. The first half was very mild, sometimes stormy and wet but the second half was colder and drier. 

I think it was about  7.0 and 3.5 for the CET for the two halves of that January.

This could be one of those odd winter months where the calmer, drier period is  milder than the wetter more unsettled  part.

 

Edited by Weather-history
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(a) January CET forecast contest __ __ averages and extremes __ __ (including all CET values since 1981)    11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

Happy New year Roger, thanks for all your hard work and input on here.

12th of January is the coldest day of the year on average from all daily data 1772-2018 (3.1 C).

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5.3c to the 18th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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5.2c to the 19th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Hadley EWP tracker only 13 mm through 18th so could be around 15 or so now. Those local snow streamers that might happen later won't push the total up very fast as they miss 90% of the grid. Would say 30 mm might be about the finishing value (and looking at today's GFS output, 3.2 C). 

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8 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Hadley EWP tracker only 13 mm through 18th so could be around 15 or so now. Those local snow streamers that might happen later won't push the total up very fast as they miss 90% of the grid. Would say 30 mm might be about the finishing value (and looking at today's GFS output, 3.2 C). 

How about 33mm and 3.3 Roger?

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5.1c to the 18th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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A finish in the high 3s or low 4s now looking most likely - expect there will be a downward adjustment. So probably the coldest January only since 2013 - there is a slim chance we might go under 3.5 degrees still.

I was surprised to see Jan 2017 ended up being colder than Jan 2015 - at 4 degrees. I don't recall much in the way of cold weather at all that month.. completely devoid I seem to remember, with little frost or snow. 

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Yesterday was to the 20th not 18th ?‍♂️

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5.0c to the 21st

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

Edited by Summer Sun
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Based on estimate of 2.0 for 22nd-31st, that would leave the CET end of month near 4.1 C. EWP tracker has now reached 14 mm (20th) which probably means about 17 mm by now -- our lowest forecast was 23 mm, could see that and perhaps second lowest 27 mm being passed, but I did the provisional scoring operation in my file based on 30 mm which was the punt of doctor32 (who missed December). That would leave Blast from the Past in first place overall with his 40 mm adding about 8 points to last month's 10. Will give you a longer summary towards end of month.

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4.9c to the 22nd

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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4.7c to the 23rd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Rodger or Weather History.. Perhaps you can list for us those years which saw a 3C Dec-Jan drop and show us what came of Feb.

Some very cold spells/months in there. Snowy ones include 1954 and 1955. More dry, anticyclonic type months are 1901 and 1986. Of course, February of 1986 was remarkably cold, whereas 1901 we failed to properly lock in to anything extreme. Some forgettable ones too, 1911, 1912, 1922 and 1972. 1912 and 1972 share a similarity in which there was a spell of severe cold near the opening of the month. 1972 just missed it, but 1912 had a brutal spell from the east with -21C recorded on the 4th. However, it all went horrifically wrong after the 6th, the winds turned to the south and the rest of the month was remarkably mild. It the cold had occured a little earlier February 1912 may have been remembered for being a remarkably warm February, but alas it was just 5.4. Don't wanna stray too off topic but hope it satifies your curiosity.

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