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Roger J Smith

January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests

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Its not happening, Jan to be average to mild.  HP never far away giving frosts but oscillating and mostly in wrong location bringing mild days between short periods of cold.

5c and 40mm

 

BFTP

 

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Its not happening, Jan to be average to mild.  HP never far away giving frosts but oscillating and mostly in wrong location bringing mild days between short periods of cold.

5c and 40mm

 

BFTP

 

I agree.

Although expecting a cool month with HP close by, keeping temperatures generally down but not much rain/snow.

A close but no cigar month, 4.1c and 35mm.

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I very much think the last half will be severely cold so I'm in two minds whether to reduce my guess to 1.5c. Just unsure how long the switch will take. Gonna stick with 4.5c for now

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25 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I very much think the last half will be severely cold so I'm in two minds whether to reduce my guess to 1.5c. Just unsure how long the switch will take. Gonna stick with 4.5c for now

That’s why I’m waiting for what tomorrow’s output will bring.... I’m with you and I’m sure most on here will agree that the cold in Jan is coming but when is the million dollar Q  🥴

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5 hours ago, Leo97t said:

I very much think the last half will be severely cold so I'm in two minds whether to reduce my guess to 1.5c. Just unsure how long the switch will take. Gonna stick with 4.5c for now

I think first half colder, potentially cold days under the inversion, depends how the high moves around

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3.3c and 30mm 

Will try and do a full 12 months this year, always forget a few lol 

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I'd like to add a precip guess with 27mm, thank you

Edited by LetItSnow!
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I'll go for 3.0C, temperatures in the first half a bit above average in a very anticyclonic pattern, the second half sees the SSW taking hold with a sharp cold snap at some point and the Atlantic turning quiet.

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CET 3.9C, EWP 47.6mm.  Overall quite mild in the north and cold in the south.  Probably some wintry weather around midmonth from the N or NE aided by the sudden stratospheric warming event but my suspicion is that the main wintry spells of the winter will fall in February instead.

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Close to average but rather dry.

4.6C and 62mm

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2.8c for me please.

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Having had some more thoughts I'd like to bump my CET prediction up to 4.2C please.  Still going with 48mm for the EWP.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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10 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Having had some more thoughts I'd like to bump my CET prediction up to 4.2C please.  Still going with 48mm for the EWP.

After things looking a little more promising yesterday, it seems more negative again today.  Sounds like you're expecting the same overall pattern though for January?

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