January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.8c here to the 23rd, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

15.8mm so far.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.9C. +0.5C above normal Rainfall 17mm 21% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

The Hadley EWP tracker has now reached 23 mm (as of 22nd, may now be near 27 mm) and the latest guidance suggests it could make a bit of a climb to the 40-50 range rather than staying low near 30. We'll see about that. 

So, the question about Dec to Jan temperature drops and what followed, this is the list of all greater than 3.0 in chronological order. I included March in the outcome portion. However, if I had taken 2.5 as my cutoff I would have included some good outcomes for February such as 1854-55 (Dec to Jan drop 2.6) and 1985-86 (2.8 drop). 

Quite a few of these are probably eliminated from your interest by being too cold in January, the potential for further drop would be minimal but most of them stayed cold into February. So I have arranged these in two columns, the left column being the cases that had a moderate January CET 1.2 or higher (I realize that is cold now, but it separates out the really cold from the rather normal cold of the past record when 30-year CET averages were as low as 2.0 at times for example 1795-1824 and otherwise the left column would be really short), as these will be more similar to this winter, and the right column being those cases that started fairly cold in December usually and got very cold in January. Some of those stayed cold, others did not.

One of the better analogues might be 1826-27 with the hot summer in 1826 and not vastly different temperatures for December and January. That winter was one of the few of this set that saw a further decrease in CET into February (Feb 1827 was running subzero to near its end too). Other encouraging analogues might be 1843 and 1853, 1855 (both in the later added portion) which saw colder Februaries. There was no attempt made in the table to align the two sets so while both are chronological within columns, the entire presentation jogs up and down a bit. .... As the left column is still quite a bit shorter, I have added all cases at the bottom of that column which are both (a) greater than 2.5 drop Dec to Jan and (b) Jan no colder than 2.4 C and also (c) occurred since 1800. 

Those might turn out to be closer analogues than many of the winters in this table. 

 

Cases of >3.0 Dec to Jan temp drop, moderate Jan ___ Cases of >3.0 Dec to Jan temp drop, cold Jan

 

YEARS ___ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR________YEARS ___ DEC _ JAN _ FEB _ MAR

1703-04 ___ 5.1 __ 2.0 __ 3.3 __ 5.3 _________1664-65 ___ 4.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.0 __ 5.0

1733-34 ___ 7.6 __ 4.3 __ 6.4 __ 8.1 _________1666-67 ___ 3.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.0 __ 2.0

1778-79 ___ 6.1 __ 2.9 __ 7.9 __ 7.9 _________1668-69 ___ 5.0 __ 1.0 __ 4.0 __ 5.0

1793-94 ___ 5.3 __ 1.8 __ 7.2 __ 7.0 _________1683-84 ___ 0.5 __-3.0 __-1.0 __ 3.0

1806-07 ___ 6.8 __ 2.8 __ 3.7 __ 2.9 _________1684-85 ___ 4.0 __ 0.5 __ 3.5 __ 5.0

1826-27 ___ 5.8 __ 1.7 __ 0.7 __ 5.9 _________1693-94 ___ 3.0 __ 0.0 __ 5.0 __ 3.5

1832-33 ___ 5.2 __ 1.2 __ 5.6 __ 3.9 _________1694-95 ___ 2.5 __-1.0 __ 0.5 __ 3.5

1842-43 ___ 7.2 __ 4.0 __ 1.9 __ 5.6 _________1708-09 ___ 3.0 __-1.5 __ 2.0 __ 3.0

1843-44 ___ 7.4 __ 3.8 __ 1.6 __ 4.7 _________1715-16 ___ 1.5 __-2.0 __ 3.0 __ 4.5

1847-48 ___ 4.8 __ 1.3 __ 6.1 __ 5.9 _________1717-18 ___ 5.0 __ 1.5 __ 3.0 __ 5.5

1857-58 ___ 7.3 __ 3.4 __ 1.8 __ 4.9 _________1739-40 ___ 3.2 __-2.8 __-1.6 __ 3.9

1863-64 ___ 6.3 __ 2.4 __ 2.3 __ 4.7 _________1743-44 ___ 4.9 __ 1.4 __ 2.9 __ 4.8

1866-67 ___ 6.1 __ 1.2 __ 6.9 __ 3.1 _________1762-63 ___ 3.6 __-0.8 __ 4.9 __ 5.4

1900-01 ___ 7.2 __ 3.5 __ 2.3 __ 4.1 _________1766-67 ___ 3.3 __ 0.1 __ 5.4 __ 4.7

1918-19 ___ 6.9 __ 2.9 __ 1.9 __ 3.6 _________ 1771-72 ___ 5.6 __ 1.2 __ 1.9 __ 4.4

1932-33 ___ 5.7 __ 2.2 __ 4.3 __ 7.3 _________1773-74 ___ 3.8 __ 0.6 __ 4.3 __ 6.4

1934-35 ___ 8.1 __ 4.5 __ 5.8 __ 6.6 _________ 1775-76 ___ 4.5 __-1.6 __ 3.8 __ 6.4

1953-54 ___ 6.9 __ 2.9 __ 2.6 __ 5.8 _________ 1779-80 ___ 3.1 __-0.9 __ 2.1 __ 7.9

1954-55 ___ 6.8 __ 2.6 __ 1.2 __ 3.2_________ 1783-84 ___ 2.7 __-0.6 __ 1.4 __ 2.7

1958-59 ___ 4.7 __ 1.6 __ 4.4 __ 7.3_________ 1794-95 ___ 3.7 __-3.1 __ 0.8 __ 3.9

1979-80 ___ 5.8 __ 2.3 __ 5.7 __ 4.7 ________ 1813-14 ___ 2.8 __-2.9 __ 1.4 __ 2.9

2015-16 ___ 9.7 __ 5.4 __ 4.9 __ 5.8 ________ 1814-15 ___ 4.3 __ 0.3 __ 6.5 __ 7.3

__ (drops 2.5-2.9 and Jan >2.4, since 1800) ___1825-26 ___ 4.6 __ 0.4 __ 6.4 __ 6.3

1831-32 ___ 5.8 __ 3.1 __ 3.4 __ 5.8 ________ 1828-29 ___ 7.4 __ 0.3 __ 4.3 __ 4.3

1834-35 ___ 5.6 __ 2.9 __ 5.7 __ 5.8 _________ 1837-38 ___ 5.3 __-1.5 __ 0.4 __ 4.9

1852-53 ___ 7.7__ 5.1 __ 0.6 __ 3.4 _________ 1841-42 ___ 4.4 __ 0.6 __ 4.2 __ 6.4

1854-55 ___ 5.1 __ 2.4 __-1.7 __ 3.3 _________ 1880-81 ___ 5.1 __-1.5 __ 3.2 __ 5.3

1910-11 ___ 6.4 __ 3.8 __ 4.8 __ 5.2 _________ 1894-95 ___ 5.1 __ 0.2 __-1.8 __ 5.1

1911-12 ___ 6.2 __ 3.6 __ 5.4 __ 7.2 _________ 1939-40 ___ 3.2 __-1.4 __ 2.6 __ 6.0

1921-22 ___ 6.5 __ 3.7 __ 4.4 __ 4.6 _________ 1940-41 ___ 3.8 __ 0.5 __ 3.5 __ 5.1

1951-52 ___ 5.5 __ 2.7 __ 3.4 __ 6.6 _________ 1941-42 ___ 5.6 __ 0.9 __ 0.1 __ 5.2

1971-72 ___ 6.6 __ 3.9 __ 4.3 __ 6.5 _________ 1944-45 ___ 3.6 __ 0.4 __ 7.1 __ 7.9

1977-78 ___ 6.1 __ 3.4 __ 2.8 __ 6.7 _________ 1962-63 ___ 1.8 __-2.1 __-0.7 __ 6.0

1985-86 ___ 6.3 __ 3.5 __-1.1 __ 4.9_________ 1978-79 ___ 3.9 __-0.4 __ 1.2 __ 4.7

2000-01 ___ 5.8 __ 3.2 __ 4.4 __ 5.2 _________ 1984-85 ___ 5.2 __ 0.8 __ 2.1 __ 4.7

2018-19 ___ 6.8 __ 4.0?__ >>> _ >>> ________ 1986-87 ___ 6.2 __ 0.8 __ 3.6 __ 4.1

___________________________________________________________________

So in this entire set, which comprises 69 winters out of 360 not counting this one (1658-59 could not qualify), February was colder than January in 15 cases (almost all in the left column) and was equal once (back in the Maunder when CET values are to nearest degree). The set includes the warmest February (1779) but not a lot of other very mild Febs, the most typical situation is for February to be slightly milder than January in both columns. This is not surprising in the right column which includes so many very cold Januaries, and some of the Februaries continued the severe cold (1684 and 1963 in particular). I added 2018-19 to the list just to show where it is headed, the 4.0 for January is a somewhat conservative estimate and the month could be headed for the upper portion of the left column (has very little chance of migrating over to the right column though). 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 24th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[cheeky_monkey]

snowy Edmonton stands at -9.5c to the 24th which is +2.9c above average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.7C +0.3C above normal. Rainfall at 17.7mm 21.9% of the monthly average.

[DAVID SNOW]

This mild blip has scuppered my chances.. Again! ..

Lets see what the precipitation figure ends up at.

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 25th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.9C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looks like we will end up about 4.2C to 4.4C so an average to near average month but a bloomin dry one.

Edited January 26, 2019 by The PIT

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.8c here to the 25th, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

 

[The PIT]

Interesting that it's the night time temperatures that is keeping us above average at the moment it's a 3C and it should be around 1.6C The daily high is bang on average the last two days taking it back to the normal value of 6.9C.

[damianslaw]

Bit of an annoying mid blip this is - as we would have been looking at a second half that was consistently below average, and quite a bit below. However, I suspect thanks to expected downward adjustments in the region of 0.2-0.4 degrees we will see a finish somewhere between 3.8-4.1 degrees, today will return an above average CET so probably hold firm on 4.8 degrees:

27th - 4.8 degrees, 28th - 4.7 degrees, 29th - 4.6 degrees, 30th - 4.5 degrees, 31st - 4.3 degrees - lets say 4 degrees, without the current mild blip a finish in the 3s would have been almost a cert.

Interesting stats regarding 3 degree drops between Dec and Jan, I mentioned comparisons with winter 77/78, a possible match - February returned a sub 3 degree finish.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 24..3mm 30% of normal for the month

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 26th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[Dave Kightley]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.8c to the 26th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

Good chance of getting a below average month on the 1981-2010 scale

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 27th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

4.9c to the 27th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

How an earth can it have gone up based on yesterdays?

[Froze were the Days]

34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How an earth can it have gone up based on yesterdays?

exactly!... and stay the same between Saturday and Sunday when Saturday was largely a fairly mild day across England?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 5C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 24.3mm 30% for the month.

[The PIT]

40 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How an earth can it have gone up based on yesterdays?

Well we recorded a max of 5.5C and perhaps the colder air took longer to get there so they recorded a much higher max.

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP tracker reached 34 mm (26th) and could go up to around 45-50 if forecasts for Thursday prove accurate. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Slight uptick to 3.9c here over the weekend, 0.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Below average by the end of this week I imagine.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

On 25/01/2019 at 09:22, cheeky_monkey said:

snowy Edmonton stands at -9.5c to the 24th which is +2.9c above average.

Up to -8.3c to the 27th which is +4.1c above normal..this after some exceptional warmth over the weekend esp on Saturday when we got above +10c 

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 28th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.8C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Looking at 4.4C to 4.5C landing spot here so close to average but just above.

Edited January 29, 2019 by The PIT