January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests

[bluearmy]

How do av maxes and mins break down?

feels like the days have been cold but the nights not .......

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.6C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged. Tomorrow will get a slight drop again due to the cold start this morning.

[The PIT]

5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

How do av maxes and mins break down?

feels like the days have been cold but the nights not .......

You take the highest temp of the previous 24hrs and the low temp. Should be read at 09:00 hrs but as many people work this can't be done. Pretty straight forward.  The next thing do you use a running average for the month to compare against or just us the end of month value which can be a bit misleading. I use the running average for the month.

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

You take the highest temp of the previous 24hrs and the low temp. Should be read at 09:00 hrs but as many people work this can't be done. Pretty straight forward.  The next thing do you use a running average for the month to compare against or just us the end of month value which can be a bit misleading. I use the running average for the month.

I’m wondering how the daysptie temps match to average in comparison to nights...... I have a suspicion  that the days will be colder relative to average than the nights ........

[cheeky_monkey]

Edmonton is at -6.9c to 9th Jan which is +5.6c above normal

[4wd]

4.4C (+1.0C) here at the10th 

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I’m wondering how the daysptie temps match to average in comparison to nights...... I have a suspicion  that the days will be colder relative to average than the nights ........

Mean Max: 6.4c (+0.4c)

Mean Mins: 2.0c (+1.0c)

For here in North Yorkshire you are correct but both still above average.

[Summer Sun]

4.5c to the 10th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[Roger J Smith]

I was just watching the 06z GFS roll through, if it were to verify, I think the CET would reach a secondary max of 5.5 by the 15th (daily means near 7) then with the average from 16th to 28th looking like zero or lower, it could fall into the 2 to 3 range eventually. There are definitely some very cold days ahead. 

Meanwhile, through first nine days the Hadley EWP tracker was stuck on 1 mm, it has not even reached the record low for January yet, and there is not a huge amount of precip showing on the forecast charts, of course heavy local sea effect snow will be nice but it won't add much to that total going forward. I could see perhaps 30 mm by late in the month if the various fronts deliver 2-5 mm amounts (on the national scale, of course some local amounts will be higher). 

[snowray]

I'm surprised that we only went down 0.1c, there were -2/-5c's around the night before last and yesterday was cold, but warmed up a bit later in the day from the north I guess.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.5C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 1.2mm 1.5% of average for the month. Sunday possibly the high point of the month. As too how far it drops will depend on how much the cold gets downgraded by the time it gets into the reliable time frame.

[Roger J Smith]

12th of January is the coldest day of the year on average from all daily data 1772-2018 (3.1 C).

[NorthYorksWeather]

4.3c here to the 11th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

2.8mm of rain so far.

[Summer Sun]

4.6c to the 11th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[summer blizzard]

Interesting data Roger, I had not realised we were looking at sub zero forecasts.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.5C +1.0C above normal. After a monsoon last night we now have 2.3mm of rainfall 3.5% of the monthly average. Should stay roughly around this value until Wednesday then it should start falling. 

[damianslaw]

A slight rise expected over the next 3-4 days, then a flatline before a probable nosedive.. 

Some of the recent values look a bit suspect, some very low minima, but not reflected it seems in finishing totals - I would not be surprised to see a notable downward correction months end as a result - I noticed this in the autumn when a number of CET values also looked suspect on days with very low minima - late October especially, and we saw a run of notable downward corrections. 

Looking ahead a finish in the 3s very possible, might even go a bit lower.. the chances of an above average month look increasingly slim..

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 12th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[snowray]

Up we go, 10/11c widely already today, should go way over 5c now. Them colder nights not doing a lot to bring the CET down.

No frosts likely until next Thursday night, we would require a very cold second half to see this drop much.

Edited January 13, 2019 by snowray

[summer blizzard]

57 minutes ago, snowray said:

Up we go, 10/11c widely already today, should go way over 5c now. Them colder nights not doing a lot to bring the CET down.

No frosts likely until next Thursday night, we would require a very cold second half to see this drop much.

All in play still but the 16th-end on most gfs runs shows as close to 0C now so the CET will collapse.

[snowray]

49 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

All in play still but the 16th-end on most gfs runs shows as close to 0C now so the CET will collapse.

I'm hoping that January turns into the story of two halves, first half mild, second half cold. By the 16th we could be up around 5.4/5.5c, with 15 days to go it will be interesting to see how far we can go down. It really just depends on how cold it can actually get over the last 15 days and the tough part as always will be avoiding any further milder interludes.

Edited January 13, 2019 by snowray

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.8C +1.3C above normal rainfall still at 2.8mm 3.5% of average

[Summer Sun]

5.3c to the 13th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

[NorthYorksWeather]

4.9c here to the 13th, 1.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 2.9mm 3.6% of average