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January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

1981-2010 CET Daily averages for January, with daily extremes and running CET extremes (1772-2018)

... the extremes are 1772-2018 ...[] below are for 1981-2010 []... these are again 1772-2018

DATE __ MAX (year) ____ MIN (year) ___ CET mean, cum  __ extremes of running CET 01-date

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.8 (1851) ... -5.9 (1820)
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... 10.1 (1851) ... -5.9 (1786)
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1917) ... -6.5 (1786)
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.7 (1916) ... -6.0 (1795)
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 9.3 (1916) ... -5.3 (1795)

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.5 .... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -4.6 (1795)
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... 3.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 9.2 (1916) ... -3.9 (1795)
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1858) ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... 4.0 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.8 (1992) ... -3.4 (1864)

09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (1916) ... -2.8 (1795, 1864)
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.0 (1814)

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.3 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (
1976, 2007) .. -7.7 (1987) ....4.4 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
13 Jan ... 10.0 (
1796, 1873) .. -6.6 (1987) ....4.6 ... ... 4.3 ..... ....... 8.4 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... 4.8 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.1 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.7 (1814)
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) ... ...-11.9 (1838) ... ... 5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.3 (2007) ... -3.4 (1814)

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)..-8.1 (1881) ... ...5.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.2 (2007) ... -3.5 (1814)
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 8.0 (2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.7 (
1976, 2007) ... -3.6 (1814)
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... 4.4 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1814)
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.5 (
1796, 1916) .-3.6 (1795, 1814)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... 4.1 ... ... 4.5 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.6 (1795)
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.3 (1814)
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... 4.3 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.2 (1814)
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (
1795, 1814)
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... 4.2 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.6 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... 4.5 ... ... 4.4 ..... ....... 7.5 (1916) ... -3.1 (1795)

_____________________________________________________________________________

As a measure of how cold Jan 1963 was, the running mean to 24th, 25th and 26th was -2.7 C. 

1834 almost caught the leaders by 28th at 7.5 C, finished on 7.1. ... 1814 fell back only to -2.9 C.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.0c to the 1st

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________________

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Here we go again 8c, oh deary me! 

Without any doubt, the 1st will be the high point for January...down we go now....

          If its not.......

                 well I give up!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5.1c to the 2nd

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 5.1c to the 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Tables of entries posted, consensus values are 3.5 C and 60.0 mm. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=11

Entries can still be posted here up to midnight. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

These are the largest drops in running CET averages from 10th:

JAN ____ drop __ 10th, 31st

1855 ___ 4.7 ___ 7.1 to 2.4

1810 ___ 4.5 ___ 6.7 to 2.2

1992 ___ 4.1 ___ 7.8 to 3.7

1881 ___ 3.9 ___ 2.4 to --1.5

1933 ___ 3.7 ___ 5.9 to 2.2

1950 ___ 3.7 ___ 7.9 to 4.2

1803 ___ 3.6 ___ 5.4 to 1.8

1917 ___ 3.4 ___ 5.0 to 1.6

2013 ___ 3.4 ___ 6.9 to 3.5

1880 ___ 3.3 ___ 4.2 to 0.9

1813 ___ 2.8 ___ 4.7 to 1.9

1902 ___ 2.8 ___ 7.5 to 4.7

1873 ___ 2.7 ___ 7.9 to 5.2

1870 ___ 2.5 ___ 5.8 to 3.3

1910 ___ 2.5 ___ 6.0 to 3.5

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.9c to the 3rd

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.9c to the 3rd

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

New Year's Days with CET daily means of 8.0 and greater

1810: 8.7
1824: 8.1
1825: 9.7
1840: 9.3
1851: 10.8
1853: 8.6
1855: 8.1
1860: 8.7
1880: 9.6
1883: 9.6
1886: 8.9
1896: 8.6
1916: 10.5
1917: 10.4
1921: 9.0
1935: 9.5
1937: 8.3
1960: 9.5
1988: 9.3
2012: 9.8
2019 ~8.0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
38 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

New Year's Days with CET daily means of 8.0 and greater

1810: 8.7
1824: 8.1
1825: 9.7
1840: 9.3
1851: 10.8
1853: 8.6
1855: 8.1
1860: 8.7
1880: 9.6
1883: 9.6
1886: 8.9
1896: 8.6
1916: 10.5
1917: 10.4
1921: 9.0
1935: 9.5
1937: 8.3
1960: 9.5
1988: 9.3
2012: 9.8
2019 ~8.0

 

And of those some very cold monthly finals were:

Jan 1810 (2.2c)

Feb 1853 (0.6c)

Jan 1855 (2.4c) and Feb (-1.7c)

Feb 1860 (1.7c)

Jan 1880 (0.9c)

Jan 1886 (2.1c) and Feb (1.5c)

Jan 1917 (1.6c) and Feb (0.9c)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.3c to the 4th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 4.4C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall zero. Going to be a big rise for today though. Surprised by the very mild start.,

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.3c to the 5th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Next week should even out as a little above average, with a notably mild day tomorrow, nearer average Tuesday, slightly colder than average Wed and Thursday, milder towards the end but not especially so. 

December bucked the trend of many months in 2018 with a notably mild end, January most likely will do the opposite.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.9c to the 6th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.5c to the 7th

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.7C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall 1.2mm 1.5% of monthly average. Only a small temperature rise tomorrow then a slight drop for Wednesday then back on rise for a while after that.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.8c to the 8th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.9C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 1.2mm 1.5% of the monthly amount. A slight drop tomorrow then probably little or no overall change until next Sunday when it get a nudge upwards again.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.6c to the 9th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

4.2c here to the 9th, 0.8c above the 1981-2010 average.

Edited by vizzy2004
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