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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Not very scientific  but talking to my family who run a farm reckon it's going to be cold soon from their understanding of the land and wildlife  70 years experience so who  knows 

hopefully right, but in the south too

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hopefully right, but in the south too

You do actually know you live in the far North Midlands?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You do actually know you live in the far North Midlands?

Maybe so, but moki is miles north of here, 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of room for the op on the ec spreads 

Much scope for many cliff-fallers in the extended eps?

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Key timeframe is between 120 hrs and 144 hrs. 

 

ECM1-144.GIF?25-0

UW144-21.GIF?25-18

 

Wouldn't be surprised if this morphed in to a half hearted retrogression of our high toward GL prompting a quicker change than we are anticipating in coming runs. Not as much energy progged through that corridor now.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
20 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Not very scientific  but talking to my family who run a farm reckon it's going to be cold soon from their understanding of the land and wildlife  70 years experience so who  knows 

Can you go into a bit more detail lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
37 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Not very scientific  but talking to my family who run a farm reckon it's going to be cold soon from their understanding of the land and wildlife  70 years experience so who  knows 

Yes I can believe that, I had an old friend who was a farmer in Kent and he used to watch the Geese and could tell from their behaviour if it was going to turn cold and snowy or bad weather was on its way.:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Struggling to focus, was happy with the 00z & 06z but have since been boozing! What’s happened has the torpedo landed

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Another positive run on the 18z ICON. Ever so slightly more amplified by 120hrs (only goes to 120 on the 18z)

icon-0-120.png?25-18

 

12z

icon-0-126.png?25-12

We are definitely trending the right direction all be it it is a slow old process.

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im hoping that Dumping, Dolloping,Belting, Tonking, Pasting, Stonker and Hiding are going to become the buzzwords over the next few weeks.

Just so long as 'Bugger it!' doesn't get to #1!:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
32 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes I can believe that, I had an old friend who was a farmer in Kent and he used to watch the Geese and could tell from their behaviour if it was going to turn cold and snowy or bad weather was on its way.:oldgood:

Who needs weather models when you have geese and october fog:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Signs that we've reached rock bottom in the charts today and a bounce of sorts is now taking place 

To appreciate victory you need to know what defeat was like. Roll on 7th January onwards!!

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Right here we gooo. 

Big Christmas night incoming from the 18z.

Hopefully it's been at the pub since this morning and we can all go to bed dreaming of a white errrrr 2019?

Merry Christmas everyone. Keep an eye at 156ish for an attempt to go north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
27 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Right here we gooo. 

Big Christmas night incoming from the 18z.

Hopefully it's been at the pub since this morning and we can all go to bed dreaming of a white errrrr 2019?

Merry Christmas everyone. Keep an eye at 156ish for an attempt to go north. 

And don't forget the missing flight data, the October fog index and them devious Geese that don't want to end up on your plate for Christmas dinner! Yup, I think that the pub run should be pretty merry this Christmas evening alright!:drunk-emoji:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
1 hour ago, Mokidugway said:

Not very scientific  but talking to my family who run a farm reckon it's going to be cold soon from their understanding of the land and wildlife  70 years experience so who  knows 

Scientific doesn't always work anyway. A bloke in the pub who used to work for the met office told my friend to put a bet on a white Christmas. The wildlife might know more than the met office

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not quite the day 10 charts I was optimistically hoping for yesterday but at least ECM is locked and loaded.

Merry Christmas to everyone.

ECH1-240.GIF?25-0

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold, snow, frost, fog. Summer: Sunny, N winds + clear skies.
  • Location: West London
40 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Another positive run on the 18z ICON. Ever so slightly more amplified by 120hrs (only goes to 120 on the 18z) 

 

I couldn't see much difference at first but in gif form you can. 

videotogif_2018.12.25_21.58.57.gif

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