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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Shouldn’t be too far off some GFS eye candy charts , given the GFS MJO forecast takes it nearly off the scale , it’s had a good day on the mulled wine ! 

8283A51F-8EED-41DE-8C91-DF1555F9E03D.jpeg

Needs to just push it to around the border between 7 and 8 for maximum effect, as you say though, lovely amplitude.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Needs to just push it to around the border between 7 and 8 for maximum effect, as you say though, lovely amplitude.

Any update on the Euro MJO.

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Needs to just push it to around the border between 7 and 8 for maximum effect, as you say though, lovely amplitude.

Hmmm Intruiging conversation on it 

 

 

0DCCC562-3F51-4E13-8213-A710155D37D2.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Some bad news though, parallel following op - both dyer.

Tropospherically that is, op was very promising in the strat.

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Big change in GEFS post day 192 hours. Less UK highs but lots of zonal runs in there. There are a few northerlies but they are transient in nature. Only one easterly of any note. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Big change in GEFS post day 192 hours. Less UK highs but lots of zonal runs in there. There are a few northerlies but they are transient in nature. Only one easterly of any note. 

 

 

We have seen a shift in emphasis in the past 48 hours. The Scandinavian HP has been off the table for some time and we are now looking to the north and north west. OP. Control and Parallel (I think) are surprisingly similar - all flatten the second HP but shift it west in the week after New Year before bringing the trough SE into NW Europe with mid-Atlantic pressure rises behind so quite a potent shot of PM air followed by (hopefully) a mid Atlantic block.

As to the strat, certainly plenty of signs of the PV coming under serious strain and fragmenting rather than splitting and is there another minor warming coming in the New Year?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 strat T 348:

image.thumb.jpg.1077987d7a5d56ced2605df8ccea5b30.jpg

Split looks favourable, and strat forecasts probably not that much upset by missing flight data!

My view is get the strat evolution, whatever it is, nailed down properly (it still isn't) and then and only then look at the outcome for weather on the ground.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Big change in GEFS post day 192 hours. Less UK highs but lots of zonal runs in there. There are a few northerlies but they are transient in nature. Only one easterly of any note. 

 

 

Could well be the transition, I’m staying positive that in 2/3 days time we are counting down the FI charts day be day, upgrade by upgrade. 12/13 Jan UK goes into the freezer , for several weeks. Optomistic but better than downbeat posts in here. 

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Make of this what you will

clear as mud!

EFED4308-86DA-4A3A-9BED-EB05865D1661.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
34 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some bad news though, parallel following op - both dyer.

Tropospherically that is, op was very promising in the strat.

 

 

Para ends well though 

3878CF54-F4B4-48CD-9C36-7940E1720BF2.png

B9F21771-74D6-45DA-8541-7138188EFD6F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Para ends well though 

3878CF54-F4B4-48CD-9C36-7940E1720BF2.png

B9F21771-74D6-45DA-8541-7138188EFD6F.png

Yes, although those storm force winds with snow events tend to not do the trick IMO, they look great on the charts a week or 2 away, but they kill the convection and also mean there is no chance of evaporative cooling to turn marginal events into snow events, in other words they rarely deliver.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
34 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Big change in GEFS post day 192 hours. Less UK highs but lots of zonal runs in there. There are a few northerlies but they are transient in nature. Only one easterly of any note. 

 

 

To balance 

Well into FI and one model and in a very chaotic modelling time - that goes for mild output as well as a severely cold one.

Pinch of salt past 120-144 really

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks primed to drive low heights into Europe..

Then an almighty trough appears from the NW to scupper everything.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ECM’s found some festive cheer with a much cleaner clearance of LP east on D7.

This is the tropically-driven pattern that the models are only just catching onto. As this runs into the split SSW impacts, expect even more model chaos as they try to resolve if there’s much of a  faster zonal wind downwelling ahead of the reversal, and how fast both zonal anomalies will propagate down.

 

Good to see GFS strat output improving with more downward propagation-friendly patterns evolving.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Scrap that last post - not sure what was happening with meteociel, it had the 216 0z showing as the 192 12z - sorry - false alarm.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I would say let the trend be our friend, things looking a lot better today. Anyway the missing flight data and all that probably means that we can't take anything as gospel from todays runs.

ECH1-192.png

ECH0-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could be good. Could be very good! But is it the real thing? Or is it just another of those irritating FI 'starting to smell the coffee' charts we've seen so many of, this past month? I'm keeping an open mind for the time-being, but based on countless previous episodes, I know where my money'll be going!

image.thumb.png.a4883c917113030192ab0e4e1764a45c.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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