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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The wintry signal is still going strong from mid jan, I will put up with all the  dross the models show before then if it means a wintry 2nd half of January!!..merry Christmas folks.😉:santa-emoji: 

I’m with ya Frosty..... :santa-emoji:

8103FFA1-A82C-4641-889D-422210C77062.thumb.png.47b33294325e2e4fc8235b499722a408.png

99B87E73-DC21-4C49-A95B-2F9A49097FB8.thumb.png.fe37140b2ecc1417de287f7026b4007f.png

Just a little Christmas humour ⛄🤪

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I don’t post much in here but I have been following the MT for years. This forum has lots of knowledgeable people when it comes to the weather models and their information and thoughts on them are much appreciated. Keep up the good work guys!

Hopefully the SSW delivers as we head into January. I want to see this forum crash as it did last winter with everyone posting knee deep snow pics.

Merry Christmas everyone, have a great day! :santa-emoji: 🙂 

 

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I don't want to wish Christmas day away..... far from it, having a lovely day here😊, none the less just to say that my thoughts are with those who have not had such a good year, nor Christmas Day....😢

 

.....But....... it's not long now to the 12z runs that I am impatiently awaiting on this most festive of days:drunk-emoji:, and may they be merry and bright for us committed coldies!:cold-emoji::cold:

(PS...Winter coldies mind)😁

Edited by snowray
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Good to see the HP Sat over us for a while. No snowfields to produce serious minima as we enter Jan, but the set up is primed for a prolonged surge of deep cold as we go throughout January.  So a minor setback but no general change.....looking good for Jan STILL!!! Merry Xmas ALL

 

BFTP

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6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

looking good for Jan 

 

BFTP

When you say looking good for Jan..looking at the models it looks pretty cr*p well into Jan but the longer term signal ( from Exeter) is POTENTIALLY still very good which I assume is what you meant!:santa-emoji:😉

Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Great name, love Breaking Bad!!!..amongst the dross there are some good signs from the models, .chins up fellow coldies!..SSW..SSW..SSW..please deliver!!!😉😉:santa-emoji:

I nearly changed my username to Heisenberg, but I was tortured by all the uncertainty...:help:

And a thought for the day:

Our father who art in Heaven, hallowed be thy name...give us this day our daily snow, and let the East Wind blow...forgive Darren Betts for all his sins, and see the North Wind wins...For ever and ever. Amen...👼🏾

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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Merry Xmas everyone! Any one like to say when the models will show the effect of the ssw in the output! Not in fI please! No pressure 😚😀

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19 minutes ago, snowice said:

Merry Xmas everyone! Any one like to say when the models will show the effect of the ssw in the output! Not in fI please! No pressure 😚😀

by about mid Jan so nothing in the output until about new years day. So keep the faith one more week😊

 

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20 minutes ago, snowice said:

Merry Xmas everyone! Any one like to say when the models will show the effect of the ssw in the output! Not in fI please! No pressure 😚😀

Oh, Oh, Oh..... No! Don't make me laugh snowice, oh I know, let me consult my crystal ball.:oldlaugh:

 

Happy Christmas!😁

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Great name, love Breaking Bad!!!..amongst the dross there are some good signs from the models, .chins up fellow coldies!..SSW..SSW..SSW..please deliver!!!😉😉

Let's hope we have a different type of 'ice' to look forward to in the New Year 😂

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Not without interest. The high trying to edge nw? The nh profile offering an opportunity imo 👍

01A6BB00-EE73-4FD4-86EC-5E769BEBD082.png

Edited by That ECM

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

When you say looking good for Jan..looking at the models it looks pretty cr*p well into Jan but the longer term signal ( from Exeter) is POTENTIALLY still very good which I assume is what you meant!😉

How can they be cr*p well into jan when they currently only go to 9th jan at the furthest end of fi ??

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Evolution of the whole GEFS suite continues to be fascinating, the wind reversal it had nailed for a whole week now fails, but replaced by a second more significant warming a few days later, zonal wind charts:

image.thumb.jpg.541c761d58a6c7f66029e84e7b5deb3c.jpg

My money on ECM!  GFS and ensembles have either been flailing or on wrong track altogether it would seem.

Merry Christmas everyone - mine a little off kilter as due to car trouble, I'm not where I'm supposed to be!  🙃 Have a good one folks! 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Evolution of the whole GEFS suite continues to be fascinating, the wind reversal it had nailed for a whole week now fails, but replaced by a second more significant warming a few days later, zonal wind charts:

image.thumb.jpg.541c761d58a6c7f66029e84e7b5deb3c.jpg

My money on ECM!  GFS and ensembles have either been flailing or on wrong track altogether it would seem.

Merry Christmas everyone - mine a little off kilter as due to car trouble, I'm not where I'm supposed to be!  🙃 Have a good one folks! 

Zonal winds going to drop away now and like i say, thats never a bad sign moving forward !

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Phrase: Model Fatigue

Definition: When you're eating your christmas dinner and suddenly think "Hmm, classic Omega block there with signs of a cross-polar flow and huge undercut....If I don't finish my dinner by T30+ minutes it will be bitterly cold......I'll fetch me coat!

 

20181225_154706.thumb.jpg.5d28c562b3de5e915a7ad8cf498e4036.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good start to the 12z for the icon 168-180..

 

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How can they be cr*p well into jan when they currently only go to 9th jan at the furthest end of fi ??

I guess that out to the 10th Jan, not 9th is pretty much well into Jan though Blue. I must say that I much prefer the high over us than the Atlantic though, and expecting lots of nice runs for coldies in the next few days.:oldsmile:

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Zonal winds going to drop away now and like i say, thats never a bad sign moving forward !

I think a displacement of the vortex as our starter, and then the SSW 2nd wave will give us the split, all good stuff..... happy day!!!😁

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13 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

Phrase: Model Fatigue

Definition: When you're eating your christmas dinner and suddenly think "Hmm, classic Omega block there with signs of a cross-polar flow and huge undercut....If I don't finish my dinner by T30+ minutes it will be bitterly cold......I'll fetch me coat!

 

20181225_154706.thumb.jpg.5d28c562b3de5e915a7ad8cf498e4036.jpg

Where all the meat gone ,happy Christmas all .

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1 minute ago, legritter said:

Where all the meat gone ,happy Christmas all .

it was absorbed into the omega block

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This is the best hunt for cold chart yet. Probably sums up winter rather well in the end

 

 

sodall.png

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Let's call it a lack of data, as we do not want the GFS 12z to trend, an awful run, in fact, no nascent respect to the "background signals" reverting to an undisturbed upstream as we head towards D10, bringing no late Christmas gifts to thee faithful.

Compare 12z to 6z:

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.30dda660e0cc700cd9b5489ce59016d4.pnggfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.08be00534ec53d0207c0f970794a5bc6.png

I would say that FI is aptly named if we look at these 6h changes, but I have noted the 6z seems to be challenging the 18z for more robust blocking of late, but in the season of goodwill, maybe after D10 we should be questioning the data assimilation here, as the alternative should remain unspoken!

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36 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Another step forward from the gfs wrt to the nh profile. 

D29DED49-7C7C-4081-A01A-2DCCBD63C83E.png

It never fails to amaze me how consistent charts are when they are CRAP!:fool:

Edited by snowray
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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

It never fails to amaze me how consistent charts are when they are CRAP!:fool:

Or just how often charts like this one (screaming potential) appear on Day 16!

image.thumb.png.ed99ca78477c449e1e571283f929340a.png

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