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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What next update is today??

Yes Mondays and Thursdays between 10 and 10.10.

 

Just now, bluearmy said:

Given the new eps run, whatever the mornings 46 output shows will be more questionable than it usually is, unless it shows this trough which, given the 00z eps, it surely can’t ??

Agreed, but maybe it knows its Christmas eve and we need cheering up.

On another note UKMO has been terrible this year I can't remember it having one 144hr chart even remarkably close(my humble opinion) from just viewing at face value. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Given the new eps run, whatever the mornings 46 output shows will be more questionable than it usually is, unless it shows this trough which, given the 00z eps, it surely can’t ??

Exeter signposting mid Jan so EC46 46 will encompass that..

Seems unlikely we are going avoid +NAO for the next 10 days min ..

Hope is SSW downwells on what might be a poor trop pattern..potential for fireworks..

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The latest MJO update from NCEP expects it to be the primary influence over the pattern in the Tropics suggesting that it will remain active for the next two weeks .

Regardless of the drama over the SSW the MJO might help to shuffle things up over the USA and effect us down stream in Europe .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Well it's here again, that big day

When we dream of ice and snow to play

The fun, the games, no shop can sell

Of sledging and skating on snow that fell

Santa will you come, make dreams come true?

Give us snow to play 'til our fingers turn blue

We've been good, I promise, no naughty deeds

So just for once, will you fulfil our needs?

Of snow so deep and crisp and white,

When we open our curtains, oh what a sight!

Why this obsession, with white fluffy flakes?

Why the dreams of snow when all awakes?

It's a time for peace, goodwill to all men

A time to remember when we were ten

We want magic and joy, free to have fun

Of rain, mist and fog, we want none

It's Christmas Santa, your time to shine

We want to believe so give us a sign

That you listen and care, want dreams to come true

I've asked time and again, I'm sure that you knew

That all we want, all that we need

Is for you to be kind, just this one deed

We know it's too cold for rain up above

And every flake is an Angel's kiss of love

So at this time of year, surely you must

Defy all the odds, prove the models are bust

And grant us our wishes, make dreams come true

Give us snow to play, 'til our fingers turn blue

 

Merry Christmas my fellow snow freaks, hope you all have a good one.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The latest MJO update from NCEP expects it to be the primary influence over the pattern in the Tropics suggesting that it will remain active for the next two weeks .

Regardless of the drama over the SSW the MJO might help to shuffle things up over the USA and effect us down stream in Europe .

 

Well the crazily amplified gefs just into phase 7 from earlier is now mimicked by the bias corrected version though this is not getting out of six, such is the size of the amplification !

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter signposting mid Jan so EC46 46 will encompass that..

Seems unlikely we are going avoid +NAO for the next 10 days min ..

Hope is SSW downwells on what might be a poor trop pattern..potential for fireworks..

Or that the ‘poor trop ‘ pattern is the flushing through of the zonal flow ahead of the downwelling ??. 

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HO HO HO HO HO HO MERRY XMAS, cheer up guys and girls we still have lots of time left for winter to blast us with its chill, lets all remember its not the most important thing in the world, there are some of us who have lost family lost friends in this year some of them we would love to still hold dear, so lets all just forget about snaw/snow and remember the poor and the ones in need let us be grateful for what we have but also be aware of what we do not have and think of those who are in need, im not and never have been a religious person but i do and always have believed in being kind to our fellow man regardless of the time of year, sometimes it just takes a second to stand back and think outside the box and put others first, it doesnt take much if anything at all. just the thought or the gesture is all that is often needed. MERRY CHRISTMAS ONE AND ALL.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Given the new eps run, whatever the mornings 46 output shows will be more questionable than it usually is, unless it shows this trough which, given the 00z eps, it surely can’t ??

Just got back from the Tory club, missed everything, are we saying that whether the 46 shows nirvana or crud that we should rule it out anyway, from what i've seen lately on the extended GEFS, i would plumb for cold or even true cold zonality week 3.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just got back from the Tory club, missed everything, are we saying that whether the 46 shows nirvana or crud that we should rule it out anyway, from what i've seen lately on the extended GEFS, i would plumb for cold or even true cold zonality week 3.

Till the morning, yes ........

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
16 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes Mondays and Thursdays between 10 and 10.10.

Not today - Icelandic site has lost its continuity so probably won’t updat as usual and WeatherBell usually updates around 22:40 ....

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Hi all on a festive eve

the latest outlook from cpc 6-10/8-14 days shows no shift from previous days with hp cell forecasted to ancher over the BI,a holding pattern for the foreseeable with perhaps fog and frost at night under clear conditions but pleasant in the light winds where/if the sun breaks out during the day,lovely for getting out and about to see relatives/friends and to walk off those festive dinners,lovely

610day_03.thumb.gif.1410c69b51f7d303df1905047c454709.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.e944308b1c715b91e4521a3587e0a21c.gif

so,ok we will probably have to endure some beniegn/non discript weather but lets be patient and see what happens,surely enough we will get a cold spell soon enough

here is a toast from me to all the netweather team and members and i wish you all a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year

see you soon peeps and enjoy what ever the weather,:gathering::drinks:and hope we see plenty of❄️

MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell check
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all on a festive eve

the latest outlook from cpc 6-10/8-14 days shows no shift from previous days with hp cell forecasted to ancher over the BI,a holding pattern for the foreseeable with perhaps fog and frost at night under clear conditions but pleasant in the light winds where/if the sun breaks out during the day,lovely for getting out and about to see relatives/friends and to walk off those festive dinners,lovely

610day_03.thumb.gif.1410c69b51f7d303df1905047c454709.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.e944308b1c715b91e4521a3587e0a21c.gif

so,ok we will probably have to endure some beniegn/non discript weather but lets be patient and see what happens,surely enough we will get a cold spell soon enough

here is a toast from me to all the netweather team and members and i wish you all a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year

see you soon peeps and enjoy what ever the weather,and hope we see plenty of❄️

MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

Indeed but the changes on the eps and gems are right at the end so won’t be reflected on these means and cpc doesn’t take eps 12z into that days output anyway.  If you see these ens repeat tomorrow then the charts will begin to change ...

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No go on the Icelandic site im afraid.

Hopefully someone will tweet it but then again it is Xmas eve ☹️

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hopefully someone will tweet it but then again it is Xmas eve ☹️

We might have to console ourselves with the GFS but it is looking decent at the moment, problem is a lot of the regular operational model outputs have looked like delivering in FI lately only to end up zonal, perhaps because of the upper pre-SSW impact being flushed down?

image.thumb.png.44355690ea661b328831d3f1983348c9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, BarnetBlizzard said:

Where’s this gfs going then? Heights building further north, cold building in Europe, hmm

Yes, its looking good but so was the 12z at one stage.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Very very messy I said the 7th January give or take few days, as benchmark date for big changes.

Now I'm not seeing the split but I'm seeing displaced vortex but it seems stuck right over the other side of the pole.

Some models go for big heights more over southern UK than north of the uk.

It's not going to make progress north with so much going on.

It's hard to say now if Greenland heights is even possible.

bloody heights to our south are absolutely annoying the hell out of me reminds me of 2014 we were stuck in northwest flow.

The northerly I was speaking about two days ago are gone I'm struggling to see how.

I'd be reluctant to call the ssw a successful outcome.

Mjo is ok but not really going to influence much.

The reversal is looking likely but quickly reformation soon following.

and the reversal at 30hpa is poor and has been poor for few days.

Noticed that Greenland area is breeding system after system.

The best hope would be Scandinavian heights but even that looks a bit sketchy.

I wait till Wednesday Thursday have another look but just goes to show all the knowledge in the world doesn't matter the weather just does what it wants.

Stuck with block over the uk.

With possible westerly gales or even long drawn southwesterly which would definitely ruin chances for cold.

Toys out my pram this is painful.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Looks good at day 9 . But as said above the 12z looked good and went all titts up in the end . Let’s hope the 18z don’t . 

AFEC046F-D8E9-43EC-ABF2-2154CBA088D4.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

We wait for thursdays EC 46 then and hope its not dropped the northern blocking highs idea..!!

 

It's not life threating NW stop stressing ;m not happy, in fact Im quite sad.nobody died?it's just weather man!!merry Xmas !

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Nice shortwave ejected south could lead to a good fi here form the pub run

48CF024A-6CF6-4D37-A770-5472DD8F9D2B.thumb.png.3743c261755f5808040f9d3a8fa96182.png

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's not life threating NW stop stressing I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad.nobody died?it's just weather man!!merry Xmas ki

Fare point.  Wave breaking of a different kind is making the headlines.

RIP and to all on Net weather, don't take it too seriously. 

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