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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately the stinges at ECM did away with that free site with all the postage stamps .

The GFS is much more generous with its info .

Well they’d struggle to sell it I reckon  especially the garbage it’s spewing out at the moment....

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Research analogues suggest coldest portion of the winter would be 15-20 Jan, which is 22 to 27 days away, or 6 to 11 days past end of GFS run. So I'm not very concerned about slow evolution, in fact would expect it to be rather slow until perhaps 5 to 10 Jan at earliest. Looking at years that had mild first five days of January followed by generally cold weather include some pretty decent cases including 1855, 1881 and 1917. I wouldn't even open the pessimism file until about 10th of January no matter what shows up in the near term. 1895 and 1947 were among the top winters that did almost all their business after mid-January too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I don't know if the JMA strat carry weight, I understand the model is a derivative of the UKMO, so maybe it should, any road, here T192:

image.thumb.jpg.e04184e52551ab7abe498fa09a1a6ddc.jpg

Stronger than GFS for sure. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

btw, travelling this morning and realised I missed the 00z ec strat run ......... split was  lost as high as 10 hpa .... it’s back again at 12z and better than previous days output but two things

a) ridge looks more griceland than scriceland (which was previous guidance) and

b) it’s put back 18 hours wrt yesterday and the loss of continuity of previous runs is a worry 

so whilst Berlin will look cracking in the morning, it’s a good job the earlier run wasn’t shown !

That is a worry that EC is now wobbling WRT the split!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

btw, travelling this morning and realised I missed the 00z ec strat run ......... split was  lost as high as 10 hpa .... it’s back again at 12z and better than previous days output but two things

a) ridge looks more griceland than scriceland (which was previous guidance) and

b) it’s put back 18 hours wrt yesterday and the loss of continuity of previous runs is a worry 

so whilst Berlin will look cracking in the morning, it’s a good job the earlier run wasn’t shown !

That’s a worry! Hopefully just a one off wobble!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Research analogues suggest coldest portion of the winter would be 15-20 Jan, which is 22 to 27 days away, or 6 to 11 days past end of GFS run. So I'm not very concerned about slow evolution, in fact would expect it to be rather slow until perhaps 5 to 10 Jan at earliest. Looking at years that had mild first five days of January followed by generally cold weather include some pretty decent cases including 1855, 1881 and 1917. I wouldn't even open the pessimism file until about 10th of January no matter what shows up in the near term. 1895 and 1947 were among the top winters that did almost all their business after mid-January too. 

Agree, but with all the talk of Tropical forcing late December from the experts, we were hoping for an entree before the main course? This does not look like even being close to being fruitful and it does appear there is interference within the trop preventing the Pacific wave? Of course, a wave 2 attack on the trop would also be very beneficial for trop to strat forcing, so lose, lose, and from my perspective, a missed opportunity to get the strat busted beyond saving, and take that problem out of the equation?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Think this nails it dead for the foreseeable, ECM 12z mean T240, get out of that! Anticyclonic gloom, frost and fog and model-fatigue gloom.  Eyes up folks, mid January is where it kicks off, post SSW,  the cold will come, any road, Merry Christmas 

image.thumb.jpg.0e6d0b66959ce5745740b2e70ab450e9.jpg 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Merry Xmas one and all!!

The less said about the ext EPS, the better - classic +NAO pattern.  Superb call by UKMO if this comes to pass.

Anyway, Jan 15th is the date!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The outlook is pretty awful in the short to medium turn with no real sign of anything cold. 

It does feel like some on here are latching on to the more experienced posters re the strat developments, but you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. It could all easily go tits up, hopefully we get something cold but even the met Office is forecasting much of the same till the 14th Jan  that's another three weeks of dross which puts us all the way out to the second half of winter. Times ticking and we all know what happens most winters, before you know it its March. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

The irony is that the best NWP chart is actually T+0.  Don’t knock it folks - cold start to Xmas day for many - might even get my second air frost of the winter!

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Merry Xmas one and all!!

The less said about the ext EPS, the better - classic +NAO pattern.  Superb call by UKMO if this comes to pass.

Anyway, Jan 15th is the date!!

 

The geps also fund this Atlantic trough pattern for their 12z mean so maybe not a rum run .... would certainly make week 3 and probably 4 of the upcoming 46 redundant if it doesn’t have this end week 2 pattern (which surely it can’t) 

certainly fits with the latter parts of the recent gfs and gfsp ops .....

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 hour ago, IDO said:

Agree, but with all the talk of Tropical forcing late December from the experts, we were hoping for an entree before the main course? This does not look like even being close to being fruitful and it does appear there is interference within the trop preventing the Pacific wave? Of course, a wave 2 attack on the trop would also be very beneficial for trop to strat forcing, so lose, lose, and from my perspective, a missed opportunity to get the strat busted beyond saving, and take that problem out of the equation?

With all due respect - there's some misinterpretation here. In short - current tropical forcing is linked to the massive wave-1 warming hitting the polar vortex as I type this. Tropical forcing next week increasingly supports wave-2 patterns and with one of the poleward ridges in the mid-Atlantic, so that should lead to improvements in our own weather prospects (probably nothing exceptional but some snow chances starting to manifest). Unclear if SSW will add a negative AO adjustment on top of this. The week after, tropical forcing becomes most optimal for bringing cold weather patterns to the UK, and the split-SSW impacts may be joining forces with that.

Worth noting that the SSW is more of a 'potential enhancer' than the deal-maker in this light. That being a message I wish to stress to all of the NW community.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The geps also fund this Atlantic trough pattern for their 12z mean so maybe not a rum run .... would certainly make week 3 and probably 4 of the upcoming 46 redundant if it doesn’t have this end week 2 pattern (which surely it can’t) 

certainly fits with the latter parts of the recent gfs and gfsp ops .....

And likely Weatherbell 's masses of northern blocking and a jet into Europe with it ?

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

Well not much change in the outputs as of yet hopefully this will change in the next few day or so. mjoupdate. 24TH DECEMBER 2018.pdflooks like the mjo is going to go to a high amp faze if I understood the updated forecast rite. Well folks maybe it's time to take a break from models for a few days and come back to see if any changes have a good time all over the Christmas with all your family and friends. Here is the updated MJO forecast.

mjoupdate. 24TH DECEMBER 2018.pdf

mjoupdate. 24TH DECEMBER 2018.pdf

mjoupdate. 24TH DECEMBER 2018.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Detete 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And likely Weatherbell 's masses of northern blocking and a jet into Europe with it ?

That depends what’s caused these variances ..... could be issues re the slowing zonal flow messing with the nwp .....if we could see the eps mean zonal flow above 500 hpa then we may be able to deduce more but alas that’s beyond even paywalls ....... it is interesting that the gfs ops have become consistent with this v unsettled  end week 2 and now these two model ens runs fit that solution ....note that’s one which could easily involve a mid Atlantic ridge continuing to ebb and flow but with the trough headed nw/se into a large nw European trough ..... it’s not necessarily a mild zonal solution ....the last eps run which was a different broad solution turned out to be rum so let wait to see what the morning brings - of course the ec46 could show a wintry nirvana now for week 3 and it would be left hanging ......

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That depends what’s caused these variances ..... could be issues re the slowing zonal flow messing with the nwp .....if we could see the eps mean zonal flow above 500 hpa then we may be able to deduce more but alas that’s beyond even paywalls ....... it is interesting that the gfs ops have become consistent with this v unsettled  end week 2 and now these two model ens runs fit that solution ....note that’s one which could easily involve a mid Atlantic ridge continuing to ebb and flow but with the trough headed nw/se into a large nw European trough ..... it’s not necessarily a mild zonal solution ....the last eps run which was a different broad solution turned out to be rum so let wait to see what the morning brings - of course the ec46 could show a wintry nirvana now for week 3 and it would be left hanging ......

We wait for thursdays EC 46 then and hope its not dropped the northern blocking highs idea..!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

  gfseu-0-150.png?12 UW144-21.GIF?24-18 gfseu-5-162.png?12

 

It's a pity the chance for retrogression toward GL is spurned between 138 and 168 with the jet just that bit too vigorous...having said that there might be some hope here in future runs with a touch more amplification to least make things more interesting. 

We have seen many times over the years the dramatic changes that can be picked up in potential retrogression scenarios like this at very short notice on the models just when it looks hopeless!

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
32 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The irony is that the best NWP chart is actually T+0.  Don’t knock it folks - cold start to Xmas day for many - might even get my second air frost of the winter!

Spot on! Pleasantly surprised to see the cars frosting up outside my hunt for cold in the SE has taken a welcome turn tonight. It wasn't forecast nor was I expecting a frost to take us into Christmas morning. If we can't have snow then a white frosty scene is the next best thing by far! Merry Christmas everyone and hope for better model outputs soon

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We wait for thursdays EC 46 then and hope its not dropped the northern blocking highs idea..!!

50 mins and counting if I'm not in correct? 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

50 mins and counting if I'm not in correct? 

Ups my bad...

Thankyou..

Shoot, hope its not backtracked..

Suspect it will play a big part of Exeters update tomorrow..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ups my bad...

Thankyou..

Shoot, hope its not backtracked..

Suspect it will play a big part of Exeters update tomorrow..

 

What next update is today??

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
43 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The outlook is pretty awful in the short to medium turn with no real sign of anything cold. 

It does feel like some on here are latching on to the more experienced posters re the strat developments, but you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. It could all easily go tits up, hopefully we get something cold but even the met Office is forecasting much of the same till the 14th Jan  that's another three weeks of dross which puts us all the way out to the second half of winter. Times ticking and we all know what happens most winters, before you know it its March. 

Its torture waiting for the cold to arrive in most of Western Europe. The delay goes on and on and the days now getting longer. Glad I am off to Canada before the New Year to get away from these depressing winter charts. Hopefully, when I am back in early February ,winter will have arrived ?

C

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

50 mins and counting if I'm not in correct? 

Given the new eps run, whatever the mornings 46 output shows will be more questionable than it usually is, unless it shows this trough which, given the 00z eps, it surely can’t ??

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