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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Norrance Maestro

Norrance

Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

Too much stirring and sniping this morning leading to off topic posts.

 Let’s see if we can get through the rest of the day without having to remove posts! Season of goodwill etc.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure i get you there, the QTR is unlikely as signposted by met 30 dayer above all else but you also agree there is little evidence in output, followed by a vortex strengthening and returing to the pole, yes of course the trop might do what it wants for a bit, but thats pot luck and knowing things as we do, luck we rarely have, we need a 'controlled' SSW with a solid imprint on the trop, as i say, the Northerly option might be our best shot with an upwelling wave through Greenland to perhaps topple the ridge to scandi.

Standard downwelling wave is out of range of output - won’t show until tomorrow /Boxing Day at earliest. Could be quicker but the modelling unlikely to pick that up yet on the means 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Looking at the GEFS  and overall pattern at the moment any cold will have to come from the ne or east .

It’s not a leap of faith to get the high further north east.

The limpet high is there and just needs more amplitude upstream to drive it further ne.

If we can get into phase 6 in the MJO this should help.

 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Chris Fawkes tweeting his support for GFS 00z with cold / snow E/Europe and down to Greece... 

Probably a standard response to a UK high but he seems to think its a good fit to the SSW..

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

good day to all my fellow posters on this very interesting forum , probably the best top weather forum on this planet .I have very good friends in Canada [ just north of Toronto ) They emigrated back in the mid 1970 s and my late wifes very best friend as worked in the weather business but now retired .I have had the pleasure on many occasions to visit weather centres in Canada and in this country ,especially when i was a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society ,but now demoted as i stopped paying my dues 5 yrs ago .The point is ,looking 5 days ahead with modern technology is prone to mistakes ,looking 7 days ahead is a head ache ,10 DAYS AHEAD , A BIT OF A HEAD BANGER .And us Snow lovers are trying to predict what will be happening beyond that .As i type i expect the latest Met office outlook is ready to go on line ,for me personally i follow this ,but only out to about 15 days , i always look at the ECM up to 7 days ,so as of now i do think better cold weather charts are just around the corner . with the SSW going on its going to be hard for any forecast model to get to grips with forecasts charts in our Neck of the woods .On about woods i have been up the wood shed this morning early ,had a good conversation with myself , checked on the local wild life and came to the conclusion that a big upgrade is a coming ,even the local squirrels are collecting peoples recycling ,two more squirrels seen wearing scarves up the woods today .Right gang ,must start preparing for tomorrows food ,i have my two boys coming plus grand daughter and a friend of mine ,also the dog ,i will be regularly popping in to this forum ,happy Christmas to all STellas all round ,enjoy .:yahoo::yahoo:.

 

 

 

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

@feb1991blizzard some from the 06z GEFS still showing a split or attempts at a split and some others showing the possibility for some more warming later on

tempresult_ksk6.thumb.gif.d4261dbe8456a9349c61012dbf212918.gif

gensnh-12-7-336.thumb.png.08861288c6652071d31a2651badcd421.png

tempresult_krz0.thumb.gif.25ab3d24aa94bfa13dab2491d4ab4d06.gif

possible splits ^ possibile further warmings >

gensnh-4-7-384.thumb.png.d1a04a0356592f839b25160eb1b6ac3e.pnggensnh-1-7-384.thumb.png.01f550059f2918456235c63cd381c157.pnggensnh-8-7-384.thumb.png.2ced4ee737c7d04507ad53b1efbb3dfe.png 

tbh dont think the GFS / GEFS have a clue it seems like this stratospheric warming has really confused them and they are covering just about every possibility.

CMA still going for an impressive warming (dont think its quite a split but still decent)  doesn't let you do a gif so here are individual frames

cmanh-10-108.thumb.png.ce13b614615210e84c5b3093997fecca.pngcmanh-10-120.thumb.png.59be688410cf1cbb6a421cdfbc4504bd.pngcmanh-10-132.thumb.png.b75e1e705631e8ed40dcf62d3b4ff958.pngcmanh-10-144.thumb.png.98638d19f5157aaacbba7c3b42f20277.pngcmanh-10-156.thumb.png.a87fc5a2a62f5a2434794c473109c647.png 

cmanh-10-168.thumb.png.ea81dfbde694240e9e23eda8639fa6ee.pngcmanh-10-180.thumb.png.3972c8b72bc457a70cc75f3d5d491a1f.pngcmanh-10-192.thumb.png.6c94fe75ca35950c36507f98e7e43590.png cmanh-10-204.thumb.png.6f22121f48676023cdb75f6b0cb2767d.pngcmanh-10-216.thumb.png.3914b5e9084ca46d5b5d856abd8375d7.png 

cmanh-10-228.thumb.png.6b969f4d9175550db5ddda326d5e5016.png cmanh-10-240.thumb.png.1cefeb1f0553a522740c3ab7dc6f2cbd.png

tempresult_hwl1.thumb.gif.dbe4360358e0793d1eb5641d5d5cc66a.gif

gensnh-10-0-384.thumb.png.746cff54fc70a11fb48c50f8735972e0.pnggensnh-10-1-384.thumb.png.e20b7fe8fbf3a5d3f2c022960e720831.pnggens-11-0-324.thumb.png.9c2c70bc83c65bedf331d93464049762.pnggens-12-0-348.thumb.png.5a2d234c293ae0eae69a1812b5824411.pnggensnh-20-0-384.thumb.png.710789020cb3d1ca992385dad74d5e4c.png 

gensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.4172193322e2d8b3bc8a710563e5279a.png

cfs 

tempresult_tfi0.thumb.gif.95c2e397c9e4653b1196bf4733bef1df.gif

 

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Leon1 Seasoned

Leon1

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Posted

The same thing happened in February this year so please don't get so sad. Gavsweathervids on YouTube is great. Today he did a long range update with the ECM, Meteo-France, and DWD (German model I think) and they all go for a cold winter from January to end of March.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Gordon Bennett, these runs are going from the sublime to the ridiculous! All we need now, is an 'unanticipated' solar sausage...?

Netweather GFS Image

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Shunter Enthusiast

Shunter

Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
Posted (edited)

 

The MJO has been on the sherry, rapid increase in amplitude on the 06z ...……

Click on the GIF for todays update

ensplume_full.gif

Edited by Shunter
Amendment
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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted
31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Chris Fawkes tweeting his support for GFS 00z with cold / snow E/Europe and down to Greece... 

Probably a standard response to a UK high but he seems to think its a good fit to the SSW..

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
Just now, Northern Sky said:

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

Indeed!  Not sure what Chris Fawkes is on about it tbh...

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

No i was suggesting a UK high normally sees the cold uppers ino EEurope SE  Europe..

he seems to be very cautious about the SSW bringing uk cold..

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No i was suggesting a UK high normally sees the cold uppers ino EEurope SE  Europe..

he seems to be very cautious about the SSW bringing uk cold..

I think it’s because he’s going with a displacement of the PV rather than a split.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

To be fair if we dont get any cold until late Jan, the much maligned Fawkes will have been proved correct, and from a long way out as well.

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Selliso Enthusiast

Selliso

Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
Posted
20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Gordon Bennett, these runs are going from the sublime to the ridiculous! All we need now, is an 'unanticipated' solar sausage...?

Netweather GFS Image

I read lots of these posts, and try to learn some of the technical terminology, developing my understanding as I go.... But what on earth is a Solar Sausage?!?

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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No i was suggesting a UK high normally sees the cold uppers ino EEurope SE  Europe..

he seems to be very cautious about the SSW bringing uk cold..

Ah cheers NWS. Yes you're right, hopefully though the idea that a UK high often precedes a cold spell for us will come to fruition for us. In terms of the trop modelling I'm not too worried yet. Picking up on the posts from the long range experts it's looked like any proper cold wouldn't arrive until the last two thirds of Jan. That's still 17 days away so I'll just be looking for signs of the lead up to that. If in a week or two's time things still look as grim then maybe time to worry?

I've really enjoyed your optimistic posts this year NWS keep the faith :santa-emoji:

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Selliso said:

I read lots of these posts, and try to learn some of the technical terminology, developing my understanding as I go.... But what on earth is a Solar Sausage?!?

It's actually called a 'solar filament', and one was once cited as the reason why one of Jezza's brother's 'forecasts' went tits-up...I think it was one of NW's senior forecaster's that originally coined the term, so I have merely stolen it...

Anywho, within one minute of my post, a new coronal hole has been announced...Mayhem awaits!:santa-emoji:

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

A lot of doom in here today.  It’s Christmas Eve and I think it’s best to focus on festivities and s*d the weather/winter for a few days!

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's actually called a 'solar filament', and one was once cited as the reason why one of Jezza's brother's 'forecasts' went tits-up...I think it was one of NW's senior forecaster's that originally coined the term, so I have merely stolen it...

Anywho, within one minute of my post, a new coronal hole has been announced...Mayhem awaits!:santa-emoji:

I think you need to have a chat with Steve Muir for what it means and who coined the words?

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Selliso Enthusiast

Selliso

Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's actually called a 'solar filament', and one was once cited as the reason why one of Jezza's brother's 'forecasts' went tits-up...I think it was one of NW's senior forecaster's that originally coined the term, so I have merely stolen it...

Anywho, within one minute of my post, a new coronal hole has been announced...Mayhem awaits!:santa-emoji:

Ah great, thanks! 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

Its more like spring where i am! Sitting in a hot tub next to the lake in Lincolnshire.  Sure, one of the reasons i choose here was the hype of a white christmas. But the main reason was to find some solitude after an horrendous  year which resulted in my son losing a leg in a motorbike accident, then my eldest son dying in july. I love the weather as much as the next person on here. But please people, it is just weather. Don't  allow it to take over your lives. Snow will come back again one day. My son never will. Now! Enjoy your christmas's. Be happy. Be patient. And stop arguing! 

Wow im sorry for your loss, im actually lost for words after reading this, ive got tears rolling my face after this,  i do hope you son recovers well.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

The thing with all these SSW forecasts is until they happen no one knows how that will effect the weather in Europe .

Theres a lot of supposition . Best to keep an open mind . 

 

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

Its more like spring where i am! Sitting in a hot tub next to the lake in Lincolnshire.  Sure, one of the reasons i choose here was the hype of a white christmas. But the main reason was to find some solitude after an horrendous  year which resulted in my son losing a leg in a motorbike accident, then my eldest son dying in july. I love the weather as much as the next person on here. But please people, it is just weather. Don't  allow it to take over your lives. Snow will come back again one day. My son never will. Now! Enjoy your christmas's. Be happy. Be patient. And stop arguing! 

I am sure all on here feel for your losses, it does put watching the weather into its correct perspective. I just hope you are able to relax and feel some comfort where you are staying. Take care John x

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weathergeek Community Regular

weathergeek

Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted

If ever there was a time to have bland weather, it's while we all have the happy distraction of Christmas so let's all switch off and enjoy time with those important to us and let the weather "cook" whilst we enjoy the season. Then we can come back in the NY with some hopefully more idea about the results of the SSW and maybe a lovely "cooked feast" to enjoy mid Jan!

Happy Christmas everyone and thank you for all the knowledge and fun banter you share on here year after year!!!xx

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