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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - and if we don't get one, we are then running out of time as the vortex looks like returning to the pole in the strat, if this NW flow keeps getting pushed back as well, i wont be far off jumping ship to the pessimistic camp, we really need a good EC46 tonight, i haven't got any internet on my phone and this is a very important update so may elect not to go for a pint tonight now and stay in for the update.

gensnh-21-7-384_rye3.png

We are? Don’t confuse the standard 10/14 downwelling wave with a qtr .........

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats not a suprise to me if i'm honest- 

Looks like we are going further into Jan for any response..

I would be interested to hear your views on the GFS/EC strat conundrum Blue, GFS still having nothing to do with any split? Added to that, if there is any split on EC it doesn't sound like its going to be a favourable one..

The Berlin charts high up were quite interesting- gfs and ec at the top are not so different T96 to T126 - they diverse beyond that point ..... I know where my money is but strange to see differences so early on ... ec should be better at the top 

the ec split unclear whether would be a griceland or sgriceland ridge if it downwelled  

Edited by bluearmy
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Looking at the Gfs 6z operational in high res i was in danger of dying from boredom but then low res arrived!..at last some action!!..merry christmas all:santa-emoji:😉..ps..rudolf may struggle tonight with the expected fog across eastern areas!!:reindeer-emoji:

06_372_preciptype.png

06_384_ukthickness850.png

06_384_ukthickness.png

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Lol we all like the weather in here but to sacrifice a pint at Christmas for a model update is well pretty sad in my book 😉

get out there in ya Santa jumper man 🍻

Yes but i only have 10 quid left so cant afford any fags and that does my head in, so its not like i will be going on a drug fuelled drinking binge, it really will be an hour anyway so its not like i would be sacrificing a lot for the model run.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We are? Don’t confuse the standard 10/14 downwelling wave with a qtr .........

The Berlin charts high up were quite interesting- gfs and ec at the top are not so different T96 to T126 - they diverse beyond that point ..... I know where my money is but strange to see differences so early on ... ec should be better at the top 

the ec split unclear whether would be a griceland or sgriceland ridge if it downwelled  

Thanks Blue and thanks for your input, i'm not going to lie, i'm getting a bit jittery at the moment..

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We are? Don’t confuse the standard 10/14 downwelling wave with a qtr .........

The Berlin charts high up were quite interesting- gfs and ec at the top are not so different T96 to T126 - they diverse beyond that point ..... I know where my money is but strange to see differences so early on ... ec should be better at the top 

the ec split unclear whether would be a griceland or sgriceland ridge if it downwelled  

Not sure i get you there, the QTR is unlikely as signposted by met 30 dayer above all else but you also agree there is little evidence in output, followed by a vortex strengthening and returing to the pole, yes of course the trop might do what it wants for a bit, but thats pot luck and knowing things as we do, luck we rarely have, we need a 'controlled' SSW with a solid imprint on the trop, as i say, the Northerly option might be our best shot with an upwelling wave through Greenland to perhaps topple the ridge to scandi.

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Too much stirring and sniping this morning leading to off topic posts.

 Let’s see if we can get through the rest of the day without having to remove posts! Season of goodwill etc.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure i get you there, the QTR is unlikely as signposted by met 30 dayer above all else but you also agree there is little evidence in output, followed by a vortex strengthening and returing to the pole, yes of course the trop might do what it wants for a bit, but thats pot luck and knowing things as we do, luck we rarely have, we need a 'controlled' SSW with a solid imprint on the trop, as i say, the Northerly option might be our best shot with an upwelling wave through Greenland to perhaps topple the ridge to scandi.

Standard downwelling wave is out of range of output - won’t show until tomorrow /Boxing Day at earliest. Could be quicker but the modelling unlikely to pick that up yet on the means 

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Looking at the GEFS  and overall pattern at the moment any cold will have to come from the ne or east .

It’s not a leap of faith to get the high further north east.

The limpet high is there and just needs more amplitude upstream to drive it further ne.

If we can get into phase 6 in the MJO this should help.

 

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Chris Fawkes tweeting his support for GFS 00z with cold / snow E/Europe and down to Greece... 

Probably a standard response to a UK high but he seems to think its a good fit to the SSW..

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good day to all my fellow posters on this very interesting forum , probably the best top weather forum on this planet .I have very good friends in Canada [ just north of Toronto ) They emigrated back in the mid 1970 s and my late wifes very best friend as worked in the weather business but now retired .I have had the pleasure on many occasions to visit weather centres in Canada and in this country ,especially when i was a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society ,but now demoted as i stopped paying my dues 5 yrs ago .The point is ,looking 5 days ahead with modern technology is prone to mistakes ,looking 7 days ahead is a head ache ,10 DAYS AHEAD , A BIT OF A HEAD BANGER .And us Snow lovers are trying to predict what will be happening beyond that .As i type i expect the latest Met office outlook is ready to go on line ,for me personally i follow this ,but only out to about 15 days , i always look at the ECM up to 7 days ,so as of now i do think better cold weather charts are just around the corner . with the SSW going on its going to be hard for any forecast model to get to grips with forecasts charts in our Neck of the woods .On about woods i have been up the wood shed this morning early ,had a good conversation with myself , checked on the local wild life and came to the conclusion that a big upgrade is a coming ,even the local squirrels are collecting peoples recycling ,two more squirrels seen wearing scarves up the woods today .Right gang ,must start preparing for tomorrows food ,i have my two boys coming plus grand daughter and a friend of mine ,also the dog ,i will be regularly popping in to this forum ,happy Christmas to all STellas all round ,enjoy .:yahoo::yahoo:🍺.

 

 

 

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@feb1991blizzard some from the 06z GEFS still showing a split or attempts at a split and some others showing the possibility for some more warming later on

tempresult_ksk6.thumb.gif.d4261dbe8456a9349c61012dbf212918.gif

gensnh-12-7-336.thumb.png.08861288c6652071d31a2651badcd421.png

tempresult_krz0.thumb.gif.25ab3d24aa94bfa13dab2491d4ab4d06.gif

possible splits ^ possibile further warmings >

gensnh-4-7-384.thumb.png.d1a04a0356592f839b25160eb1b6ac3e.pnggensnh-1-7-384.thumb.png.01f550059f2918456235c63cd381c157.pnggensnh-8-7-384.thumb.png.2ced4ee737c7d04507ad53b1efbb3dfe.png 

tbh dont think the GFS / GEFS have a clue it seems like this stratospheric warming has really confused them and they are covering just about every possibility.

CMA still going for an impressive warming (dont think its quite a split but still decent)  doesn't let you do a gif so here are individual frames

cmanh-10-108.thumb.png.ce13b614615210e84c5b3093997fecca.pngcmanh-10-120.thumb.png.59be688410cf1cbb6a421cdfbc4504bd.pngcmanh-10-132.thumb.png.b75e1e705631e8ed40dcf62d3b4ff958.pngcmanh-10-144.thumb.png.98638d19f5157aaacbba7c3b42f20277.pngcmanh-10-156.thumb.png.a87fc5a2a62f5a2434794c473109c647.png 

cmanh-10-168.thumb.png.ea81dfbde694240e9e23eda8639fa6ee.pngcmanh-10-180.thumb.png.3972c8b72bc457a70cc75f3d5d491a1f.pngcmanh-10-192.thumb.png.6c94fe75ca35950c36507f98e7e43590.png cmanh-10-204.thumb.png.6f22121f48676023cdb75f6b0cb2767d.pngcmanh-10-216.thumb.png.3914b5e9084ca46d5b5d856abd8375d7.png 

cmanh-10-228.thumb.png.6b969f4d9175550db5ddda326d5e5016.png cmanh-10-240.thumb.png.1cefeb1f0553a522740c3ab7dc6f2cbd.png

tempresult_hwl1.thumb.gif.dbe4360358e0793d1eb5641d5d5cc66a.gif

gensnh-10-0-384.thumb.png.746cff54fc70a11fb48c50f8735972e0.pnggensnh-10-1-384.thumb.png.e20b7fe8fbf3a5d3f2c022960e720831.pnggens-11-0-324.thumb.png.9c2c70bc83c65bedf331d93464049762.pnggens-12-0-348.thumb.png.5a2d234c293ae0eae69a1812b5824411.pnggensnh-20-0-384.thumb.png.710789020cb3d1ca992385dad74d5e4c.png 

gensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.4172193322e2d8b3bc8a710563e5279a.png

cfs 

tempresult_tfi0.thumb.gif.95c2e397c9e4653b1196bf4733bef1df.gif

 

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The same thing happened in February this year so please don't get so sad. Gavsweathervids on YouTube is great. Today he did a long range update with the ECM, Meteo-France, and DWD (German model I think) and they all go for a cold winter from January to end of March.

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Gordon Bennett, these runs are going from the sublime to the ridiculous! All we need now, is an 'unanticipated' solar sausage...?🤣

Netweather GFS Image

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The MJO has been on the sherry, rapid increase in amplitude on the 06z ...……

Click on the GIF for todays update

ensplume_full.gif

Edited by Shunter
Amendment
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31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Chris Fawkes tweeting his support for GFS 00z with cold / snow E/Europe and down to Greece... 

Probably a standard response to a UK high but he seems to think its a good fit to the SSW..

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

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Just now, Northern Sky said:

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

Indeed!  Not sure what Chris Fawkes is on about it tbh...

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1 minute ago, Northern Sky said:

I thought this UK high has nothing to do with the SSW?

No i was suggesting a UK high normally sees the cold uppers ino EEurope SE  Europe.. 🙂

he seems to be very cautious about the SSW bringing uk cold..

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No i was suggesting a UK high normally sees the cold uppers ino EEurope SE  Europe.. 🙂

he seems to be very cautious about the SSW bringing uk cold..

I think it’s because he’s going with a displacement of the PV rather than a split.

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To be fair if we dont get any cold until late Jan, the much maligned Fawkes will have been proved correct, and from a long way out as well.

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20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Gordon Bennett, these runs are going from the sublime to the ridiculous! All we need now, is an 'unanticipated' solar sausage...?🤣

Netweather GFS Image

I read lots of these posts, and try to learn some of the technical terminology, developing my understanding as I go.... But what on earth is a Solar Sausage?!?

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No i was suggesting a UK high normally sees the cold uppers ino EEurope SE  Europe.. 🙂

he seems to be very cautious about the SSW bringing uk cold..

Ah cheers NWS. Yes you're right, hopefully though the idea that a UK high often precedes a cold spell for us will come to fruition for us. In terms of the trop modelling I'm not too worried yet. Picking up on the posts from the long range experts it's looked like any proper cold wouldn't arrive until the last two thirds of Jan. That's still 17 days away so I'll just be looking for signs of the lead up to that. If in a week or two's time things still look as grim then maybe time to worry?

I've really enjoyed your optimistic posts this year NWS keep the faith :santa-emoji:

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1 minute ago, Selliso said:

I read lots of these posts, and try to learn some of the technical terminology, developing my understanding as I go.... But what on earth is a Solar Sausage?!?

It's actually called a 'solar filament', and one was once cited as the reason why one of Jezza's brother's 'forecasts' went tits-up...I think it was one of NW's senior forecaster's that originally coined the term, so I have merely stolen it...

Anywho, within one minute of my post, a new coronal hole has been announced...Mayhem awaits!:santa-emoji:

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24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's actually called a 'solar filament', and one was once cited as the reason why one of Jezza's brother's 'forecasts' went tits-up...I think it was one of NW's senior forecaster's that originally coined the term, so I have merely stolen it...

Anywho, within one minute of my post, a new coronal hole has been announced...Mayhem awaits!:santa-emoji:

I think you need to have a chat with Steve Muir for what it means and who coined the words?

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