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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Even in the GFS scenario the core vortex getting shoved off the Pole is never a bad thing,we can see on 18z the core deep purples have been removed from Eastern Canada and Greenland , this with zonal winds decreasing, hopefully will see a slowing down of the energy hurtling across the Atlantic..

Thats my hope, guess we have to see,but at the moment i would like to see some evidence appearing in day 10 plus charts, and it sounds like eps have trended the other way..

The eps are a little worrisome to say the least.

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2 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

Get a feeling the models have yet to take into account the effects of the SSW. January looks very very cold. 

It isn't even guaranteed for this likely SSW. We will have to see.

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Already covered this one yes enjoy Christmas it's not until first week Jan the fun and games begin 

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Happy Christmas everyone very interesting later on gfs cooler day by day very cold to the east of uk. didn’t some of the very cold spells in the past have high pressure  drifting around uk so uk high  might be boring to most but could be key to much colder weather later on..

82CF55EB-69C2-4477-BF9B-045FAE159684.png

7D574F97-CBDF-4F82-9D22-D671C8B1A4EE.png

Edited by abbie123
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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

'unreal' ? Really? People just airing differing opinions? Isn't that just the way of the world? I find your post dramatic to say the least lol.

Lol yeah perhaps unreal was a bit strong.

im just as irritated as the rest of us on here atm but I’m quite confident of something very good lurking just frustrating 

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The eps are a little worrisome to say the least.

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

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1 minute ago, Don said:

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

No not that . No one has posted the strat  from the ECM 12z tonight . Behind pay wall I believe. 

Edited by ICE COLD

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Just now, Don said:

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

No i'm not aware of that Don, unless someone has posted otherwise..

GFS is getting better strat wise, haven't seen the para, its probably not out yet anyway..

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

No not that . No one has posted the srat from the ECM 12z tonight . Behind pay wall I believe. 

Ok thanks.

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@bobbydog sorry to hear the situation you are in, hope things work out for you / get better 😀

@Daniel Smith Exactly my thoughts, think it will be into the new year before the bigger picture is worked out but the cold /snow potential charts will continue to increase towards the second week of Jan (8th Jan onward)

I will refer back to the three p's that I mentioned a few days ago 

POSITIVITY 

POTENTIAL

PATIENCE

1. POSITIVITY - what is there to be positive about? we are currently seeing a stratospheric warming / SSW which has the potential to lead to colder weather for us and we are already seeing some hints of this among the GEFS, yes the question still remains will it be a split warming after the initial displacement, hard to say given the split (no pun intended) within the models but possibly the GFS will fall in line within the next few days and also show a split. GFS 18z 6h chart 

   gfsnh-10-6.thumb.png.9c1a761acb54548d0d438c985df8fd18.png we have had winters where we would have loved to see this kind of chart within 100h never mind within 24h  

and for the people saying some of the charts are flat etc look out for the high building over / close to the UK as this could be the key player at our first shot at colder weather in January with the potential for it to move to a more favourable position ie Greenland, Iceland , Scandi or a combo of the three

gfsnh-0-252.thumb.png.d08a9fea34debee301fec1cc155924a0.pnggfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.ee606f6fb3ba14cbf2d83e5dfad8c85e.png 

2. POTENTIAL - where does the potential lie within the current charts? as mentioned above the GEFS look like they are starting to pick up on a / the signal for our first shot at colder weather as we head into the second week of January, keep an eye on this signal growing as we head towards new year's day, hard to say at the moment  whether it will be from a northerly or an easterly direction (possibly northerly first then perhaps into an easterly) and also keep an eye on the GEFS to hopefully see them firming up on a split warming after the displacement event.

3. PATIENCE - this is possibly the most important out of the 3, given the stratospheric warming there could be the potential for a fast response to be shown within the models or it could take some time for the possible effects to start being shown. And I can understand the disappointment because we are not going to end up with a white Christmas (although some could see a white Christmas of a different kind with some frost)  but this is a great position to be in for potential cold / snowy weather in the new year and we have endured some winters where we would have given anything to have any kind of wintry charts to start showing within the output.

3Ps-To-Achieve-Goals.jpg.289e7c557a1d31cf217b3aa17d344252.jpg

And of course there is always the potential for us not to end up on the cold side of things but whatever the outcome this will be a fascinating period of weather / chart watching and it is at times like these that are the reason why I love weather! 

ps anybody having a guess when the first BOOM chart(s) will appear? I will go for the GEFS 12z 27th December 🔮

now off to see what the 18z GEFS are showing....

 

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T218hrs to T240 hrs

A clockwise rotation from the 1048mb high pressure quite something tbh.

A lot of mince pies and cold turkey sandwiches to go yet" but positive potential 

Sub zero nights close to freezing by day.

It's movement East would be interesting. 

19010118_2318.gif

19010218_2318.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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The thing is as well the ECM clusters haven’t updated for a few days so no one can access them , so you can’t really get a feel of what is showing on days 10 to 15 . 

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes.

Diagramme GEFS

Thats better !!

GEFS sniffing something..

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18 minutes ago, Don said:

So the ECM strat forecast has trended towards the GFS?

No, just to clarify, I was commenting purely on the trop modelling.

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Right guys having not covered myself in glory this morning with Estelle!!! And the weather outside today I have tried to explain the up and coming weather But you know what.......we are always in the sh## it’s just the depth that veries !!

foz. 🙂

Edited by Fozfoster

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30 minutes ago, SPEEDYTOAST said:

What are everyone's thoughts on the start of Jan.

 

Hard to be sure really, but seems like it may start off High Pressure dominated, especially towards Southern UK - models showing various themes of this. Then (hopefully) as the Stratospheric warming starts working its way further down in the atmosphere, it’ll cripple the Tropospheric Vortex - maybe even ripping the troublemaker into two main chunks (splitting it), and allow High Pressure around the UK area to get scooped up further North and become a High Latitude Block. Thus sending the Jetstream on a Southerly track. This would probably take till mid-January to see the effects of this with colder conditions flooding in from the North or East.

I’m guessing the rest of January would remain cold and blocked. High Latitude Blocks can, but not always, be hard to budge once they set up favourably to the North-West/North/North-East of the UK. (But admittedly the idea of the second half of January being cold and blocked is too far out for me to make any proper judgements. And the fact that it’s crucial to push and/or split a weakened Polar Vortex in a desirable place. Without that happening, there’s a risk of the cold weather fans ending up in the wrong area of any blocking High Pressure for chilly and snowy weather). 

Well, this is what we’re hoping anyway. 😂 But, for now, it’s probably the most likely solution for January. 

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GFS ensembles gradually sniffing out colder solutions with an SSW on the horizon? 

It's beginning to feel a lot like... February 2018

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