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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
7 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Spreads say that the op has some cluster support so I doubt the theory tonight has much credence 

Ah, there goes that one then. Thanks for the insight. As always more runs will tell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
44 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Those are some big changes very early on, why did the operational not see this earlier? 

Other models have shown this though. GFS took time to catch on. 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

morning   all looking  at the gfs going  back to work in jan could get a bit interesting !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The big positive that I see is a much higher amplitude pattern developing after weeks of rather flat zonal flow, especially upstream in NA, and this at least gives a 50-50 chance for cold even if you don't have much idea where the ridges and troughs will set up. That beats the zero chance in a flat zonal any time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

Those are some big changes very early on, why did the operational not see this earlier? 

Because it didn't have a handle on it. None of the models do. Cause and effect. They often play catch up. This is my take on things. I'm slowly Learning not to take things as gospel. It's amazing how the smallest adjustment can brinf about huge changes. Sometimes within a very short time frame. I guess it's also why I'm quietly optimistic about the Christmas period and new year. 

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

ECM showing a little more in the way of cold for Xmas, well less mild anyway. Changes in positioning of HP on this run. Suspect more changes to come. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Big differences between 00z EC and GFS at T+168,  Xmas Day, model volatility setting in past day 5/6?

EC                                                            GFS

289F9FE0-E76C-4081-B6C2-D111BD8C2EC5.thumb.png.075b98bcd96b95664a9b05e70151f906.png59AF56CB-3FA1-4E53-9CB8-D115F6F16200.thumb.png.044163acfe6fee4cf689d8855898deb0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

ECM showing a little more in the way of cold for Xmas, well less mild anyway. Changes in positioning of HP on this run. Suspect more changes to come. 

Yep totally agree, small improvements on the Atlantic amplifaication, almost run to run, is currently evident. I think this will continue to improve, gradually, over the coming days

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
15 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Big differences between 00z EC and GFS at T+168,  Xmas Day, model volatility setting in past day 5/6?

EC                                                            GFS

289F9FE0-E76C-4081-B6C2-D111BD8C2EC5.thumb.png.075b98bcd96b95664a9b05e70151f906.png59AF56CB-3FA1-4E53-9CB8-D115F6F16200.thumb.png.044163acfe6fee4cf689d8855898deb0.png

Indeed, the ECM is showing consistency with its 12z run though. Still keeps the theme of a high close by / to the south and the PV dancing around a little to our North / north west.

Final frame of the run is encouraging - maintaining the theme of amplification to the NW post Christmas.

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

PV beginning look in serious trouble by D10 on the ECM

D2DA0267-CF9B-4A1A-A9B3-23BC0B02A6A1.thumb.png.d8c33160bb315c2e1c2e0d2d12774f57.png

GFS also at D10 paints an uncomfortable picture for the PV

D7C9BBA4-45F8-4845-9A3B-1116BB652CD4.thumb.png.cfcf9f3542d34867052737d432e82d77.png

Anyone know where I can view the Ensembles for Reykjavik? Thought they could be viewed on Metoeciel, but it appears not.

 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
13 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

SSW nearly into range on the EC

ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.gif.b9cf1c61343b9690f2dbdd1aa98f68b5.gif

The fact that the Mid-strat down to 30mb is predicted to look like th below means January should hold a lot of interest for us. Way more than your average January does.

ecmwf30f240.thumb.gif.cf73a291d33b6ba3d701e18c302f4b63.gif

The vortex split seems to be the buzz word(s) at the moment. Far too much emphasis being put into that IMO. Of course historically vortex splits tend to favour us but it is not the be all end all. As in, no split equates to no cold. And I never buy into a split finisihing off the vortex either. It will stun it, that's all. Unless we get incessant and strong follow up waves and warmings (possible but rare to last all DJF) , It will reform in no time as soon as we wane for any period, descending W-QBO will do little to help in that respect.

Far from meant to be a doom and gloom post, quite the opposite. I am just saying that, the fact we have what is looking like a substantial warming, a probable SSW (and crucially in December) should be good enough for us all to chill out and wait and see what occurs next. The cold will soon spill out of the Arctic, there is absolutely zero doubt about that, whether some of it is for us remains to be seen yet. Personally, I think we will be seriously unlucky not to have copped for a UK wide snowy spell by the end of January.

I'll post later..when i get the time..

however other wave pulses look very good for continuation...

With a perhaps 2nd small yet notable warming...to the by then depleted vortex.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
11 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

SSW nearly into range on the EC

ecmwfzm_u_f240.thumb.gif.b9cf1c61343b9690f2dbdd1aa98f68b5.gif

The fact that the Mid-strat down to 30mb is predicted to look like th below means January should hold a lot of interest for us. Way more than your average January does.

ecmwf30f240.thumb.gif.cf73a291d33b6ba3d701e18c302f4b63.gif

The vortex split seems to be the buzz word(s) at the moment. Far too much emphasis being put into that IMO. Of course historically vortex splits tend to favour us but it is not the be all end all. As in, no split equates to no cold. And I never buy into a split finisihing off the vortex either. It will stun it, that's all. Unless we get incessant and strong follow up waves and warmings (possible but rare to last all DJF) , It will reform in no time as soon as we wane for any period, descending W-QBO will do little to help in that respect.

Far from meant to be a doom and gloom post, quite the opposite. I am just saying that, the fact we have what is looking like a substantial warming, a probable SSW (and crucially in December) should be good enough for us all to chill out and wait and see what occurs next. The cold will soon spill out of the Arctic, there is absolutely zero doubt about that, whether some of it is for us remains to be seen yet. Personally, I think we will be seriously unlucky not to have copped for a UK wide snowy spell by the end of January.

As others have said, at least we have a lottery ticket.

 

Interesting model watching at the moment. On one had you the the GFS, ECM UKMO all looking fairly typical with the usual zonal setup, but the new kids on the block (the strat stuff) is setting us up for some fun and games come early Jan.

I think the models will start showing the stuff we want to see over the next 5-6 day's.

Maybe no snow for Christmas, but how about some epic charts for the New Year being shown on Christmas day, that will do me.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Crewecold and Feb91 were painting very downbeat pictures regarding strat developments last night.  Are things looking better this morning, or are the posters on here this morning just more glass half full people?!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Good morning!

ECM now also toying with the idea of a Nly breakout of the polar vortex. 

Most likely affect of this SSW. I am of the personal opinion that this event will disrupt not split the vortex. That comes later I think with an additional warming post January. 

Christmas snow looking very unlikely for most but that wasn't in doubt since the flip in the GFS chart last weekend. 

Now chart watching for post Christmas period.  Let's see where this goes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
18 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Crewecold and Feb91 were painting very downbeat pictures regarding strat developments last night.  Are things looking better this morning, or are the posters on here this morning just more glass half full people?!

Far from speaking for them, but maybe the combination of the slightly underwhelming EC46 update and the apparent vanishing of further warming at 10hpa which is back again this morning to a certain extent prompted a slightly toned down mood. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Christmas day now within sight of UKMO looks settled for many with the chance of some precipitation in the extreme south. It certainly doesn't look like it will be overly mild at this stage.

ukm2.2018122500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9f1bffc5d16df99eac74c380c0a90d57.png

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