Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think we need to approach this thread as a group therapy session!

Clearly the outputs so far upto day ten are rubbish for cold , it’s inevitable that these are beginning to grate as we’d all like to see a change .

Its pointless people being called out for moaning because to be blunt if we take out the moaning then there won’t be many posts !

So personally if people want to moan and let it out they should ! I will continue to do so until such time as there’s less to moan about ! 

Let’s hope the ECM can pull something out of the bag. We have been here many times with some rank bad outputs .

Things do change but in the here and now we seem stuck with the limpet high . My mood would have been worse if we didn’t have some better background signals and at least some movement in the MJO . If we can get into phase 6 that should a bit more amplification into the upstream pattern .

Indeed NCEP did suggest less progressive solutions were preferred as they expected some more amplification in the Pacific .

 

Yes i think thats a fair post Nick (yours almost universally are just that)-

I for one am sick to my back teeth of wind and rain so will actually welcome the coming week of generally calm settled weather with open arms..

First things first, we need to know which model is correct regarding this SSW/ split PV, i don't want to even think about GFS being correct, but it could be.

Edited December 23, 2018 by northwestsnow

[karlos1983]

I don’t think there’s any need for personal jibes is there though, it is just the weather and it is bloody Christmas! 

Reach for a bevi rather than an insult perhaps...

[DanDorsetUK]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

cant believe how seriously people are taking the current output when we know its very likely huge changes are coming

Totally agree it's rediculus! 

[markw2680]

I think now is a good time to take a break from the models for Christmas and when you come back after I’m sure there will be some pretty big changes, hopefully for the better for us cold crew.

the only thing I no now for certain is that we are above the villa at Christmas!!!

yay

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I don’t think there’s any need for personal jibes is there though, it is just the weather and it is bloody Christmas! 

Reach for a bevi rather than an insult perhaps...

Will be sipping some beers laters for sure after driving home for xmas to mum’s! 

Lets hope the 12z runs are a blip.

[Polar Maritime]

And back to sensible, Friendly Model Discussion please.

Merry Christmas to all on here.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Sweatyman]

6 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I think now is a good time to take a break from the models for Christmas and when you come back after I’m sure there will be some pretty big changes, hopefully for the better for us cold crew.

the only thing I no now for certain is that we are above the villa at Christmas!!!

yay

a fellow bluenose. Yippee!!

[mulzy]

The FV3 puts us in an easterly at days 11/12...

 

[nick sussex]

The GFS op forecast for the MJO is slower than the GEFS for progression to phase 6.

The latest global tropics hazards outlook discussed the mixed signals re the MJO. Their conclusion is that they expect week 2 to show the MJO in phase 6 , they’ve gone primarily with the ECM and CFS precipitation forecasts which look typical of that phase 6.

 

Edited December 23, 2018 by nick sussex

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The FV3 puts us in an easterly at days 11/12...

 

only up to 90 on meteociel

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The FV3 puts us in an easterly at days 11/12...

 

Are you referring to the 6z? The 12z is not that far yet.

[mulzy]

Just now, karyo said:

Are you referring to the 6z? The 12z is not that far yet.

12z rolling out quicker on Wetterzentrale.

[karlos1983]

12z Para 

Only pain isn’t you can’t view the 10hpa on wetterzentrale

Edited December 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

Big snow event coming up for the South.

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, karyo said:

Are you referring to the 6z? The 12z is not that far yet.

Meteociel is horrendous with the GFS para, its so blinkin slow!

[Dorsetbred]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big snow event coming up for the South.

hmm, that'll change long before the day..

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

hmm, that'll change long before the day..

It’ll probably change on the next run. Still nice to see and shows what could happen, amongst many possibilities at this stage. 

[bluearmy]

55 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The title of the thread does say model discussion thread, just because we don't like the forecast pattern is flat doesn't mean it shouldn't be in here....

Some balance is needed, we are all hunting for cold at the end of the day but if we believed all the cold ramping that has taken place in this thread since it started then we would have all had lying snow and have had to cancel our christmas travelling plans.

Background signals do show some promise but what if a split in the PV drops a lobe over the North Atlantic instead and really fires up the jet? I think too many people are putting all their eggs in the SSW basket assuming it will deliver exactly what we want, there were even 1 or 2 comparisons to Jan 1987 yesterday! we can't have a cold spell until that euroslug disappears the only pattern we will get is a mild one. The SSW may turn things on its head but model output discussed in here is surely valid even when it shows what we don't want it to show.

This thread is the hunt for cold 

there is another model thread for the ‘realists’

I don’t believe the extended ens output is taking the consequences of any reversal and downwelling wave into account on the means - so the excellent prospects showing across the output into week 3 are not ssw induced imo 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This thread is the hunt for cold 

there is another model thread for the ‘realists’

I don’t believe the extended ens output is taking the consequences of any reversal and downwelling wave into account on the means - so the excellent prospects showing across the output into week 3 are not ssw induced imo 

Interesting... but if they are not, it begs the question why not??

[nick sussex]

Some differences already showing up as early as day 3 between the ECM and UKMO upstream .

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Interesting... but if they are not, it begs the question why not??

Two things -

1) I’m referencing the means - we can see the odd gefs run is QTR but we know from experience that the ens models generally struggle to take the reversal into account until it gets very close - the means simply won’t  show anything at range re QTR

2) once the reversal arrives, it’s approx two weeks before a standard downwelling wave affects the trop - so we are some way from seeing that on the end output (assuming there isn’t a QTR) 

[feb1991blizzard]

Any downwelling in my opinion as only likely to take into account a displacement, i know i keep banging on about this but a true split hasn't really been modelled yet apart from the odd run here and there, a true split SSW is an area of high heights in between the vortices that you can class as a synoptic scale wave.

[Derecho]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This thread is the hunt for cold 

there is another model thread for the ‘realists’

I don’t believe the extended ens output is taking the consequences of any reversal and downwelling wave into account on the means - so the excellent prospects showing across the output into week 3 are not ssw induced imo 

It's still the model output thread, should we move all SSW related posts into the SSW threads as well?  

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It's still the model output thread, should we move all SSW related posts into the SSW threads as well?  

But SSW can 70% of the time bring cold weather to NW Europe. So I think it’s ok in the hunt for cold . I think what Nicks trying to say is if it’s normal weather output rain/mild then just go to the other thread . I thought that was the whole idea .

[feb1991blizzard]

This is what we need to see before we can pop the corks.

Edited December 23, 2018 by feb1991blizzard