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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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GFS about to start to drag the heights into the Atlantic again ?

Not this time it seems..

Edited by northwestsnow

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To me, the models are starting to firm down on the idea of the high over the UK gradually moving west/nw after 200 hours +. 

As it edges westwards the pv begins to force its way southwards into Europe leaving uk under some kind of northerly. 

That’s the starters 

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1 minute ago, ITSY said:

Too much activity in North America to force enough (or any) WAA up the eastern seaboard. Might take longer to evolve into something useful for us, this run...

At this stage it’s only tentative signs but if we continue seeing the shift westwards and the PV is impacted by the SSW and begins to weaken/move I’m struggling to see anywhere else it can go aside from... you know where!

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18 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The NWP runs are very flat this evening.  Longer term who knows but another step back in the short to medium term.  Can ECM save the day again? Lets’s hope so!

To be perfectly honest Bro, the above adds nothing to the discussion either, at the time of posting GFS was out to 180 and UKMO was complete at 144 - timeframes when nothing is expected .

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ok - this is the hunt for cold thread - there is no ‘cold’ showing in the next week to ten days so theoretically, anyone commenting on the model output for the next ten days and saying how rubbish it is re cold should be in knockers thread?? 

Just a bit fed up with posters telling me that the next weeks ‘flat’ output is flat - we know !  (It’s actually not that flat )

The problem is it is flatter than the 06z run, compare:

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.0d38e301e259fa15675f2c34f67e74ab.pnggfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.e4e82da3aa9a0f97a0bade2af9367512.pnggfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.7ac59c32df0a52f09927f69f9af8235e.png

The Pacific Ridge is flatter than the 06z. This means that the Atlantic trough on the 12z is stronger so the next wave goes under rather than cut through the trough. That was the trigger for Atlantic heights and the migration west of the UK high! So big changes by D11 and further delays...

...Its a surprise as the background signals are to the contrary.

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just enjoy xmas i think should be the message ,then come back and the models should begin to look more exciting🎅

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5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

To be perfectly honest Bro, the above adds nothing to the discussion either, at the time of posting GFS was out to 180 and UKMO was complete at 144 - timeframes when nothing is expected .

“Longer term who knows?”. I was commenting on the short to medium term only.  We know there is no ‘nirvana cold’ per se in that timeframe but when compared to this morning’s ECM which showed widespread frosty nights and day times highs of 3/4C on the 28th/29th a step back.  Yes, it’s possible this morning’s ECM was an outlier but heyho.

Edited by mulzy
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The problem is it is flatter than the 06z run, compare:

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.0d38e301e259fa15675f2c34f67e74ab.pnggfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.e4e82da3aa9a0f97a0bade2af9367512.pnggfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.7ac59c32df0a52f09927f69f9af8235e.png

The Pacific Ridge is flatter than the 06z. This means that the Atlantic trough on the 12z is stronger so the next wave goes under rather than cut through the trough. That was the trigger for Atlantic heights and the migration west of the UK high! So big changes by D11 and further delays...

...Its a surprise as the background signals are to the contrary.

LOL..

GFS still doesnt think there will be a split...

Think i for one will ignore its outputs for the timebeing!!

Of course EC could be wrong.. if it is think i will give up with it.

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We need Indiana Jones!

The key to unlock the cold is in the Ark of the Covenant!

The output is wretched , this mornings ECM was positively 62/63 compared to tonights Freddie Kruger special from the rest .

I’d be surprised if the ECM righted the ship as the others have now found more complications upstream within T144hrs .

The only bright spot is the outputs couldn’t get any worse and the MJO is making more progress towards phase 6 . We need out of phase 5 as quickly as possible .

 

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tempresult_jdw6.gif

 

 > than 1997 in my humble opinion for mildies. 

Edited by The Eagle
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Snow showers on the hills of Northwest Scotland, on January 4th...

I do hope I'm not upsetting anyone's 'delicate constitution' by posting this...? It is what it is! And, contrary to what some folks like to think, there's plenty room for reporting what the models say...Not merely for saying what other peeps might want to hear...

Netweather GFS Image

Sorry, I guess we'll have to bin this one: Netweather GFS Image

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Alternative take on UKMO 12z: Canadian lows weakening past day 4, day 6 about to inflate heights further north again via the UK as a trough drops down by the Azores.

As for the GFS 12z, I really can't be bothered as I've rarely seen a run make as little sense in all layers of the atmosphere.

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Snapshot of the 850s on the 06z in my tropical location. GEFS more than smelling the coffee (caveat: expect plenty of up and downs still though)

3BE8B5EF-0D8E-4336-B90C-954EE77473A2.thumb.jpeg.1e579d6684db9f6ce39b20a1131224f1.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Stonethecrows said:

Sadly the same could be said about your incessant mild ramping in a cold weather thread 🤔

LOL - me a mild ramper!?!

I am Yamkin’s little brother!

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image.thumb.jpg.353da40af752f8e2f3ef78ddf4dc3a80.jpg

👽

GFS 12z strat T384.  

Best not to take that too seriously at the mo, GFS not covering its self in glory with this one.  Meanwhile, today's GEFS zonal winds:

image.thumb.jpg.5c47737fd946fa64d4ccabda36212425.jpg

Reversal moved back about 24 hours today, so edging towards ECM, longevity of reversal looks slightly worse today, I would suggest.

Edited by Mike Poole
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14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

LOL - me a mild ramper!?!

I am Yamkin’s little brother!

I’d say you just said it as it is tbh. 🤷‍♂️

I didn’t see you write winter off, just showed your quite rightful disgust at the 12z suite thus far. 

Im off to GIN corridor to forget about it and move on lol 

Edited by karlos1983
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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Snow showers on the hills of Northwest Scotland, on January 4th...

I do hope I'm not upsetting anyone's 'delicate constitution' by posting this...? It is what it is! And, contrary to what some folks like to think, there's plenty room for reporting what the models say...Not merely for saying what other peeps might want to hear...

Netweather GFS Image

Sorry, I guess we'll have to bin this one: Netweather GFS Image

Shame on you ed Talkin current output!!!we could talk about my team swfc winning the championship but that would be Fi.anyway here's to a cold new year ete if it arrives 

Edited by swfc
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1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

UW144-21.GIF?23-17

As you were on the UKMO day 6. Or "weapons grade depression" as it's also known 😄 

That’s at least 8 days before the colder weather is expected. 

Edited by Mapantz
Moving on...
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The problem at the moment is that we are entering the calm period before things kick off in the new year. So we find ourselves in a kind of limbo waiting for the NWP to really get a handle on matters closer to the surface than the strat.

Hence the more impatient among us start feel a bit tetchy.

I'm reminded of GP's words a couple weeks back regarding the period approaching new year which was to ignore any Nwp that doesn't raise hieghts to our North or Northwest. 

All the background signals suggest that this will be a jeckyll and Hyde winter or a winter of two Half's. At the moment we are going through the half that none of us in this thread wants to be in.

But we shouldn't let this take our eyes off the prize. Everything comes to those who wait ,as last winter proved. I saw more snow between Feb 26th and March 18th 2018 than in the previous seven years put together. This year we have the very real likely good of things starting in Mid January rather like a certain legendary winter of the past.  

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Well.. none of the output this evening looks anything like the EC 00z run ...

Lets see what EC conjurs up and i include the strat in those comments.

I'm not concerned .. 

I might be if EC backs away from the split PV but for now ...

( Gfs 12 was horrendous though in the interests of fairness)..

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Can’t post individual ensembles but looking at the GFS day 10 panel, they are LOADED with potential, there’s some crappy ones as to be expected but the trend is continuing, I do understand the dispondency from some but if you just accept it’s a waiting game this winter it becomes a lot less frustrating.

 

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Can’t post individual ensembles but looking at the GFS day 10 panel, they are LOADED with potential, there’s some crappy ones as to be expected but the trend is continuing, I do understand the dispondency from some but if you just accept it’s a waiting game this winter it becomes a lot less frustrating.

 

D10 panel:

gens_panel_vpo9.png

UK high dominant!

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