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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

One thing we can surely say now, is that if we do get a wind from a cold direction in January, it will really pack a punch.

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

Ok nearly Snowmaggadon time again! 

Upto 222h.. hmm might take a while.. though id love the cold uppers being drawn down in the Atlantic to come this way..h850t850eu.png

Thats just unfortunate... 

At least any movement north or west with the high the game should be on!

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Much better run but it shows the danger, split but it doesn;t really pull the lobes apart wide enough.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122300&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much better run but it shows the danger, split but it doesn;t really pull the lobes apart wide enough.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018122300&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360

Another warming showing up afterwards could help, and although no greeny/scandy high there would be some serious cold to tap into following this chart. 2nd week of Jan still looking like where the fun and games have best chance of starting so anything before then would be a bonus I guess. Let’s see if we can get another upgrade on GEFS, they’ve been coming along quite well lately. 

D04C4527-304F-41B1-930E-E7EDBA8DE017.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another warming showing up afterwards could help, and although no greeny/scandy high there would be some serious cold to tap into following this chart. 2nd week of Jan still looking like where the fun and games have best chance of starting so anything before then would be a bonus I guess. Let’s see if we can get another upgrade on GEFS, they’ve been coming along quite well lately. 

D04C4527-304F-41B1-930E-E7EDBA8DE017.png

Yes, best bet for the time being is potent NW / N flow.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
43 minutes ago, swfc said:

Bit of a mix and match on the gefs this morning tbh

Agreed, not as good as the last few runs , a few cherry picked here.

0C99EFE4-C0D5-4992-AE99-4C2EFDC5D612.png

723AB8E6-2631-45BA-8538-4F28E6168E39.png

6DA6C201-2572-4E18-B4CB-433D99990BC8.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

The gfs para seems to be the slowest loading model ever?wonder if it's run on solar power !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

The gfs para seems to be the slowest loading model ever?wonder if it's run on solar power !!!!

Aye, solar power produced in Iceland at midwinter. 

End of ECM looking 'promising'? 

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.53b91161efd22903e81a89e91016b1c9.gif

Good to see a few runs of both GFS and ECM starting to lower the heights around the Med. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

Albeit in F.I, definite signs on the 00z ECM, of wanting to shift the core of heights further north. Here are some frames from the latter stages, at  t144, t216 and t240:

ECM1-144.GIF

ECM1-216.GIF

ECM1-240.GIF

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
5 hours ago, kumquat said:

gfsnh-0-324.png?18

Bizarre influx of Thickness

 

That's how I feel about this thread sometimes.

Just joking

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Looks like we could see the low heights refreshing nw/se into a growing scrussian trough as our block dumbbells around, edging slowly wnw but never quite gaining enough traction towards greeny 

the trough slowly backing wsw to encompass nw Europe 

quite tricky as we probably have trop patterns from tropical  forcing competing with strat induced ones re slowing zonal flow and possible flushing down of increased zonal flow = bit of a mess! 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC looks mainly cold with the odd mild day thrown in for good measure- infact, under that high it gets colder and colder as head towards day 10

ECE1-240.GIF?23-12

Theres the energy under the high i highlighted yesterday..

edit As said yesterday i expect the Exeter outlook, (shorter timescale)might change away from the early Jan unsettled spell, looking at the data this morning, i think there is a good chance they will.)

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Almost a third of the way through the meteorological winter and naff all to show for it so far but once the high builds in there should at least be some overnight frosts and potentially freezing fog depending on cloud-cover of course!..anyway, I'm still hopeful January will deliver our first major cold spell..fingers crossed its a boom and not a bust!:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

To say I’m underwhelmed is an understatement !

Apart from the ECM the rest upto day ten are woeful with the limpet high stuck to the south .

The ECM has a better upstream pattern and manages to push the high further ne . Unfortunately there’s no support in the other ops. A few GEFS do though but we’d need to see a move from the other ops today .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To say I’m underwhelmed is an understatement !

Apart from the ECM the rest upto day ten are woeful with the limpet high stuck to the south .

The ECM has a better upstream pattern and manages to push the high further ne . Unfortunately there’s no support in the other ops. A few GEFS do though but we’d need to see a move from the other ops today .

 

I have a feeling over the next 48 hours we shall. I think because of the enormity of the effect that ssw's have it proves indecipherable to the models themselves.  The severity of it and the likely effectd when they havebt even happened yet.....? 

Edited by snowfish1
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To say I’m underwhelmed is an understatement !

Apart from the ECM the rest upto day ten are woeful with the limpet high stuck to the south .

The ECM has a better upstream pattern and manages to push the high further ne . Unfortunately there’s no support in the other ops. A few GEFS do though but we’d need to see a move from the other ops today .

 

Yes nick barring a isolated decent run Friday not s lot to see even at the 10-14 day ATM.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

To say I’m underwhelmed is an understatement !

Apart from the ECM the rest upto day ten are woeful with the limpet high stuck to the south .

The ECM has a better upstream pattern and manages to push the high further ne . Unfortunately there’s no support in the other ops. A few GEFS do though but we’d need to see a move from the other ops today .

 

I'm optimistic things are slowly moving in the right direction Nick

The tweet by Matt Hugo suggesting the split on EC this morning is the best yet,it looks huge btw..

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